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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

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8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ripping snow here but the sleet line is two towns over so the fun is about over. A couple inches down, would consider this a win all things considered. Have very little hope for part 2.

You've pulled a couple inches? Damn, I'm slacking here. 

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EPS has high 80 low 90. % odds of 12 plus for Rays hood and definitely sees the CCB with 2 inch qpf probs very high Beantown ish

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I know this isn’t the observation thread, but moderate snow has started here in Bristol two hours earlier than BOX mentioned in their latest discussion. Temp has dropped as well with the onset of snow.  Wouldn’t surprise me this storm continues to do things not forecasted by most.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

nam will probably be a little better . It was sort of a graze on 12z compared to most other models crushing 

Inch and half per hour for 3 hrs so far in my hood, we crush

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Nam captures this later and further NE then other guidance 

the MSLP retros NW instead of W between 6z and 12z and is further NE then other guidance 

it does have a band further SW along SNE coast but ya it swings that vorticity well east Monday nite and it’s hard to bring low back in for a crushing like other guidance 

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I mean the GFS would suggest the spoke of vorticity pinwheels around the low, shoots through the Carolinas and rides NNE to a position off Cape Cod by early Tue. That's the forcing that helps the low take off. 

Just think about trying to model that man. :pimp:

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean the GFS would suggest the spoke of vorticity pinwheels around the low, shoots through the Carolinas and rides NNE to a position off Cape Cod by early Tue. That's the forcing that helps the low take off. 

Just think about trying to model that man. :pimp:

Good luck, You'll figure it out, That's why you get the big $$$.............;)

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

tfw you realize you have to drive to worcester on Tuesday morning

395 is usually very well taken care of if you shoot down 6

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam captures this later and further NE then other guidance 

the MSLP retros NW instead of W between 6z and 12z and is further NE then other guidance 

it does have a band further SW along SNE coast but ya it swings that vorticity well east Monday nite and it’s hard to bring low back in for a crushing like other guidance 

Lol you kill me

FE1B9193-B733-4D8A-9AB0-546F1313BE08.jpeg

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6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Can will or Scott or someone with knowledge of the criteria explain why a WWA would not be issued here?

I mean, it obviously doesn’t change the amount of snow we’ll get, I’m just curious 

Advisory is simply 3" in 12 hours. So the thinking would be no 12 hour period sees more than 3" for you. 

Personally, I would argue that 6" drawn out over 24+ hours will be impactful enough to warrant one. 

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39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM storm total.  

RT 2 has been the spot for days and days. Amazing to see that consistency.  

Right where the highest U-wind anomalies are.

9E9296A2-8E8E-4558-9C53-F2C2FFD21500.thumb.png.c5ce3d7955818d1c13a5673da98e890b.png

Didn't the 3km NAM have like 1 inch of WAA snow for Ray yesterday?

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