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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure why Tip thinks this an ENE storm lol

Haha lol...

Just gibbin ya shit... But seriously, I'm not sure that wind-up CCB stuff for early Tuesday will get that far back west.   I mean it could - but right now it's not being modeled to do so. 

You should do fine prior to that tho.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Objection to that, flag tossed.  Don’t put this suppressed storm on par with that beast in 2001 lol.

I think it meant 2001ish with the biggest swath right around the Northeast Mass /Southeast New Hampshire boarder west to the southern Monads/ Southern Vermont area. 

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Yeah re: B word was wondering that too...

12z RGEM/12kNAM/Euro for Tues are not far off if low gets captured, deepens, and loops off CC as shown.

To add to this potential, note that we are now seeing SLP continue to deepen into 970s (whereas on earlier guidance it was a meandering occluded 980s)

Still up in the air where this happens (> 24 hours away), and I think eastern half SNE up into eNH/ME all have potential

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

I think it meant 2001ish with the biggest swath right around the Northeast Mass /New Hampshire boarder west to the southern Monads/ Southern Vermont area. 

Yeah it was a 2-3 footer straight into Canada for the mountains though.  Top 10 storm for BTV I think?  

That one was much of a beast over a larger area.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is a real tough setup. Given my mentions earlier about meso lows and vortmaxes wobbling around, the low for tomorrow night is in a precarious spot. Any minor shift and it changes things quite a bit. I’m sure most know, but I’d wait to confirm those exorbitant amounts.

Are you waiting until Tuesday afternoon for that confirmation?  :)

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it was a 2-3 footer straight into Canada for the mountains though.  Top 10 storm for BTV I think?  

That one was much of a beast over a larger area.

Several years ago I posted an AFD on that beast that I found on a UVM wx chat/archive from those days.  I actually looked for the UVM site a few days ago but couldn't find.  Do you know if it still exists?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a real tough setup. Given my mentions earlier about meso lows and vortmaxes wobbling around, the low for tomorrow night is in a precarious spot. Any minor shift and it changes things quite a bit. I’m sure most know, but I’d wait to confirm those exorbitant amounts.

We're not really predicting 20"-30" of snow right now, just looking at the trend this close in to go time. I do think climatology works in and reality will temper things a bit as usual.

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The city never got to getting my leaves, ftl.  It will be funny to see the plow hit them.

So.....how long will we have snow cover?  It might be tough for the Grinch to take away all of what we might get now.   Could we make it all the way til March?  Possible unless the rest of the winter really sucks.

 

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Just now, Greg said:

We're not really predicting 20"-30" of snow, just looking at the trend this close in to go time. I do think climatology works in and reality will temper things a bit as usual.

I’m just clarifying the situation for those who may not be as savvy and giving ppl a real life look into those forecasting like myself. It’s surely intriguing. 

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