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Mid October 2019 Bombogensis Coastal


Ginx snewx
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   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop across
   parts of southern New England this evening. The threat should remain
   below levels needed for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
   lower Great Lakes region. A plume of mid-level moisture is located
   across northern New York and New England with a dry slot moving
   northeastward into the Northeast. Ahead of the dry slot, a broad
   area of rainfall is located from eastern New York into southern New
   England. At the surface, a rapidly deepening low is located just
   south of New York City. The RAP is analyzing a corridor of
   instability from near New Jersey extending well offshore.
   Thunderstorms are developing on the northern edge of this
   instability to the south of Long Island. This convection is forecast
   to move north-northeastward across southern New England over the
   next few hours. The WSR-88D VWP show a strong shear profile with 0-6
   km shear near 60 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. In spite of the
   weak instability, the shear environment suggests that the stronger
   cells at the back edge of the rain shield may be able to rotate.
   These cells may become strong enough for a marginal wind damage and
   isolated tornado threat as they move across far southern New England
   this evening.

84588930-AB83-4C0D-B37A-25EFCAA4BEA9.gif

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22 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:
 

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop across
   parts of southern New England this evening. The threat should remain
   below levels needed for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
   lower Great Lakes region. A plume of mid-level moisture is located
   across northern New York and New England with a dry slot moving
   northeastward into the Northeast. Ahead of the dry slot, a broad
   area of rainfall is located from eastern New York into southern New
   England. At the surface, a rapidly deepening low is located just
   south of New York City. The RAP is analyzing a corridor of
   instability from near New Jersey extending well offshore.
   Thunderstorms are developing on the northern edge of this
   instability to the south of Long Island. This convection is forecast
   to move north-northeastward across southern New England over the
   next few hours. The WSR-88D VWP show a strong shear profile with 0-6
   km shear near 60 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. In spite of the
   weak instability, the shear environment suggests that the stronger
   cells at the back edge of the rain shield may be able to rotate.
   These cells may become strong enough for a marginal wind damage and
   isolated tornado threat as they move across far southern New England
   this evening.

84588930-AB83-4C0D-B37A-25EFCAA4BEA9.gif

Told ya

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Going to get a long of meh's tonight before people go to bed. I think many areas in SNE rock tonight but they will be asleep. 

For eastern areas, slightly different story. Radar looking ominous for some big gusts. Obvious not doomsday, or historic, but fun. Better than meh October weather... 

We'll get some big gusts and maybe a spin up somewhere.

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