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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GFS already has highs in the upper 70’s for Monday. So it wouldn’t take much more sun to reach 80.

E7A4F96B-BE75-4AD6-983C-234A25632777.thumb.png.1e13886b5582a2e9387dbc0115328ca9.png

Highs this time of year on models are often underdone. Trees aren’t fully leafed out, meaning less moisture in the air from transpiration. 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i've seen colder april blocking patterns 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png

SE ridge hanging on.   That's not that cold outside of the west-same ol story as the winter-SE ridge, cold is all NW

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general rule for spring is we can beat beat model  high temperatures when there is enough sun.

Wind direction from the SW-W in the afternoon definitely favors over-achieving; however, most of the guidance is showing thick cirrus associated with the jetstream throughout the day. 

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18 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah same here. Colder airmass aloft than modeled

The uber dry antecedent air mass helped, too, and is being fed directly from the offshore high. Some of the fcst soundings did suggest wet bulb temps would fall below freezing a few hours again before heavier rain moves in with WAA this evening. 

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The uber dry antecedent air mass helped, too, and is being fed directly from the offshore high. Some of the fcst soundings did suggest wet bulb temps would fall below freezing a few hours again before heavier rain moves in with WAA this evening. 

Yeah, the humidity values in the teens yesterday I believe was a red flag.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

SE ridge hanging on.   That's not that cold outside of the west-same ol story as the winter-SE ridge, cold is all NW

Latest Euro picking up on the blocking, considerably colder now than 0z run. 

Strong -NAO/AO incoming, more southward corrections in storm track and subsequently colder air wouldn't surprise me. 

This would be after Tuesday, Sat-Tue look mild overall. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I love this weather. Too bad it's going to get warmer.

I don't understand how anybody loves this weather.... in April but to each their own. 60s and sunny the other day felt fantastic, it makes you feel alive. This weather just makes you tired.

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9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I don't understand how anybody loves this weather.... in April but to each their own. 60s and sunny the other day felt fantastic, it makes you feel alive. This weather just makes you tired.

 a day of it is fine-it's when it's 5+ days on end with overcast and drizzle/rain that gets to me.

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1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

I don't understand how anybody loves this weather.... in April but to each their own. 60s and sunny the other day felt fantastic, it makes you feel alive. This weather just makes you tired.

Whelp....I get it....my bride of 43 years and I have a late season fire burning and all is well with the world for this evening!

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I was doing some planting earlier and the top layer of soil on the uws is very dry for this time of year. That dusty texture you usually see in later summer when it’s been dry. Hopefully we see a decent amount of rain out of this system. The protracted nature will be good for efficiently soaking in. 

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Tonight into tomorrow morning, a system will bring a general 0.25"-0.75" precipitation across northern New Jersey, southeastern New York State (including New York City), and southern New England. Some snow could mix in across extreme northwestern New Jersey and well north and west of New York City. A general coating to an inch is possible at such locations as Albany, Binghamton, Middletown, and Oneonta with a few somewhat higher amounts in that general area. As of 5 pm, Binghamton had picked up 0.4" snow. No measurable snow is likely in or around New York City.

Behind the storm, milder air will return to the region for the weekend. Temperatures could soar into the middle 60s into southern New England tomorrow and Sunday. The potential for even warmer readings exists for Monday and Tuesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +23.36 today. That is the SOI's highest figure since the SOI reached +27.20 on October 14, 2018. Since the SOI was tracked on a daily basis beginning in 1992, only April 2010 saw the SOI reach or exceed +20.00 during the April 1-10 period when the April ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was > 0.00°C.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.964.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

The sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the April 1-10 mean temperature will range between 50.1° and 53.1° with an implied 69% probability of an above average mean temperature. For the month as a whole, there is an implied 58% probability that the mean temperature will be above average.

On April 4, the MJO moved into Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.261 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the April 3-adjusted figure of 0.215.

Even as additional measurable snow in cities such as Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington appears unlikely for the rest of this spring, it is very likely that additional snowfall will be recorded at Caribou over at least the next seven days where 156.8" snow has fallen to date. It is likely that winter 2018-19 will ultimately finish as Caribou's 3rd snowiest winter on record with more than 160.0" seasonal snowfall.

 

 

 

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Next 8 days averaging 57 degs., or about 8degs AN.

Looks like the current -2.1 anomaly for the month, will reverse to about +4.1, by the 14th.

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Lapse rates look great around here Monday, but dry air and lack of convergence may prevent much in the way of convection after the AM warm air advection ceases. The focus will likely end up being farther south in the Mid-Atlantic in VA and the Carolinas. 

Tuesday is showing some greater potential for thunderstorms on some of the guidance, including the 06Z ECMWF, FV3 and 12Z NAM + RGEM as the upper trough and stronger cold front approach during the afternoon. Their timing would bring the front through late afternoon as temps warm back up into the 70s.

floop-nam-2019040612_lr75.us_ne.gif.8b088a0ad6c30458967f5388d38dd6d7.gif

 

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41 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Lapse rates look great around here Monday, but dry air and lack of convergence may prevent much in the way of convection after the AM warm air advection ceases. The focus will likely end up being farther south in the Mid-Atlantic in VA and the Carolinas. 

Tuesday is showing some greater potential for thunderstorms on some of the guidance, including the 06Z ECMWF, FV3 and 12Z NAM + RGEM as the upper trough and stronger cold front approach during the afternoon. Their timing would bring the front through late afternoon as temps warm back up into the 70s.

floop-nam-2019040612_lr75.us_ne.gif.8b088a0ad6c30458967f5388d38dd6d7.gif

 

You think we could see some hailers with decent eml?

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