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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

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3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

I compiled some data from 2018. There was a total of 68 tornadoes around the Northeast. I broke it down by state and discussed some of the more memorable events. http://www.nicholasisabella.com/2018-northeast-tornadoes/

M7RcVeG.jpg

I can attest to the damage from the EF2 in the Carmel/Patterson area back in May 18. That day was super scary here and the sheer number of trees down is astounding. There are pretty much two straight lines that run about 10 miles where it's devastated. We were out in the car as it hit and there was stuff flying everywhere. I actually was afraid for our safety.

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Figures that the models would wait until April to develop a -AO/NAO. The powerful low that stays just off shore produces a wave breaking event that pumps up the NATL block day 6-10. 

Euro hurricane force gust potential near Gulf Stream this week

E563CCA6-5AFD-48B6-BA45-C180AE9E69E8.thumb.png.938a25d3acc27a4b9964497f0f1b5a38.png

Development of -AO/NAO

9A0056B4-2468-484F-8736-00FE75E202CD.thumb.png.794982402a18cdc646170457d457d0dd.png

 

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I love cool and dreary weather.

Warm westher sucks

Yeah, no. And that’s what made this past winter so awful on the south shore. Wasted cold and less then 10” of snow. More useless cold on the way. We better see a full scale pattern change next winter. Wednesday could have been a 4/1/97 redux if it were 200 miles Nw

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27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, no. And that’s what made this past winter so awful on the south shore. Wasted cold and less then 10” of snow. More useless cold on the way. We better see a full scale pattern change next winter. Wednesday could have been a 4/1/97 redux if it were 200 miles Nw

Not really, it would have been missing a couple of key ingredients. Warm during the day leading up to a night time BOMB and trees already mostly leafed out. The damage wouldn't have been anywhere near as severe which is a big part of what made that storm so special.

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Not really, it would have been missing a couple of key ingredients. Warm during the day leading up to a night time BOMB and trees already mostly leafed out. The damage wouldn't have been anywhere near as severe which is a big part of what made that storm so special.

You sure you guys are talking about the same storm?

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Next 8 days averaging 51degs., or about 2degs., AN.

CVSv2 has backed off on the anomaly/prob. of AN during the last days worth of March's  runs.      From +4 to +2.     Prob. of AN 75% to 60%.     But it has no mathematical validity anyway.     About 55%-60% of our months are AN at any rate, when pitted against  the 1981-2010 datum.

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On 3/30/2019 at 4:37 PM, Rtd208 said:

Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

..i don't know..is it me or did this thing come west?

all 'future casts' now shows ELI getting some heavy rain/wind..

THIS would have been the snowstorm us east enders were waiting for if only

it was 6 weeks earlier..

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Looks like the models backed off on the very warm temps in the mid to long range.

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Looks like the models backed off on the very warm temps in the mid to long range.
Mid 40s to mid 50's?
Snow over?
Sign me up.
No need to rush the warmth. It's inevitable.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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First time in over a decade that the strongest ocean storm of the cold season occurred in April. Hopefully, the cruise ships avoid that area out near the Gulf Stream where hurricane force winds are expected.

 

ANZ920-012015-
Baltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fm and south of 38.5N to
250 nm offshore-
503 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming E to NE. Seas 5 to
9 ft.
.TUE...E to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds increasing to 40 to 50 kt, then becoming W
to NW 50 to 65 kt. Seas building to 9 to 17 ft, then 14 to 27
ft. Rain, then showers and TSTMs.
.WED...W to NW winds 40 to 50 kt, diminishing to 25 to 35 kt.
Seas becoming 13 to 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 8 to
13 ft.
.THU...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming NE 10 to 20 kt.
Seas becoming 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI...E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

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14 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Not really, it would have been missing a couple of key ingredients. Warm during the day leading up to a night time BOMB and trees already mostly leafed out. The damage wouldn't have been anywhere near as severe which is a big part of what made that storm so special.

I do not remember trees being leafed out for the April fools day bomb. We only had a couple inches of the pastiest, paste here on the south shore but that occurred with extremely heavy rates and temps in the mid 30s. Parts of NE got absolutely buried!

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I do not remember trees being leafed out for the April fools day bomb. We only had a couple inches of the pastiest, paste here on the south shore but that occurred with extremely heavy rates and temps in the mid 30s. Parts of NE got absolutely buried!

too early for leaves-I wonder if he was referencing the Oct 2012 storm

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This thread would have 100 posts by now if an AO fall like this was occurring a month or more earlier. A 5 SD AO drop may be close to the record for the month of April.

 

6312C175-DA85-42BB-82EC-225C05B87FD0.thumb.gif.5c4a8890326be0d9a2236155f58fcafa.gif

Let's hope this does not define our Spring.  Some 60's and 70's would be nice.  On LI its been quite a while since we hit the 70's

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23 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Let's hope this does not define our Spring.  Some 60's and 70's would be nice.  On LI its been quite a while since we hit the 70's

It won’t prevent warmer days from getting into the mix. Wednesday looks like our next warmer day with a sneaky warm downslope flow behind the departing ocean storm. Looks like a continuation of the back and forth pattern between warm ups and cool downs. But the cold downs will get weaker over time  as the April means are rapidly rising.

 

42BFEEF3-54D4-43B4-8572-4E682743D68A.thumb.png.a34e2b5cd9717957108eae8cd4144707.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Every model is trending west with the coastal low.

Eastern LI and Eastern CT get into decent rains now....

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Eastern LI and Eastern CT get into decent rains now....

I want a nice rainstorm

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I want a nice rainstorm

euro is further west, but not enough for most on this subforum outside of Eastern LI

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

euro is further west, but not enough for most on this subforum outside of Eastern LI

Still a little time

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Of course the NAO and AO wants to go negative as we head into April.

 

Never fails lol

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