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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the region experienced the coldest temperatures this late in the season (April 29 or later) in recent years. Minimum temperatures Included:

Allentown: 32° (coldest since May 14, 2013, 31°)
Danbury: 29° (coldest since May 1, 2008, 28°)
Bridgeport: 36° (coldest since May 1, 2008, 36°)
Islip: 40° (coldest since May 8, 2017, 40°)
New York City: 41° ( coldest since April 30, 2014, 41°)
Newark: 37° (coldest since May 2, 2008, 37°)
Philadelphia: 41° (coldest since May 14, 2013, 41°)
Poughkeepsie: 29° (coldest since April 30, 2012, 28°)
White Plains: 32° (coldest since May 1, 2008, 32°)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into at least the first week of May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -4.26 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.473.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently near 100%. There is also an implied 96% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record. The most likely range for April's mean temperature is 55.4°-55.6°.

On April 28, the MJO moved into Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.133 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the April 27-adjusted figure of 2.268.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

Going forward, May looks likely to be both warmer and wetter than normal. The latest EPS weekly guidance has swung from cooler than normal to near normal. The CFSv2 favors somewhat warmer than normal conditions.

It definitely didn't feel warm at all this month though, average temperatures can be somewhat deceiving.....I had heat on every day, it felt very cool and rainy.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

18 days with measurable precipitation is the new April record for NYC.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 
Missing Count
1 2019 18 0
2 1957 16 0
- 1934 16 0
- 1874 16 0
3 2004 15 0
- 2002 15 0
- 1981 15 0
- 1964 15 0
- 1939 15 0
- 1929 15 0
- 1916 15 0
- 1912 15 0
- 1873 15 0

Boston set their new record too!  Surprised to see 2002 on this list!

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what did JFK and FOK drop to?  We had frost here this morning!

 

There was some light frost in southern Westchester County, too.

FOK: 28° (coldest April 29 or later reading since May 4, 2017, 28°)
JFK: 39° (coldest April 29 or later reading since May 1, 2008, 39°)

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April ended at +2.4[55.5], or 8th. Place tie.

As I had indicated in advance, we did lose 0.83deg. to the final average, during the last 5 days of the month.   We backed into the Top Ten.

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7 out of the last 10 Aprils since 2010 have featured positive temperature departures.

NYC

 Apr

2019....+2.4

 2018....-3.5

2017...+4.2

2016...+0.3

2015...+1.3

2014...-0.7

2013....0.0

2012...+1.8

 2011...+1.3

2010..+4.9

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April decade averages...2019 included...
NYC Central Park obs since 1870...
decade......temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.
1870's........47.9...53.3...41.1....85...20.........74.0.......29.6.....3.86"....1.8"....10.0"
1880's........48.5...52.9...46.0....84...21.........77.6.......27.4.....2.92"....0.7".....3.0"
1890's........49.3...52.3...46.4....90...24.........79.1.......28.2.....2.59"....0.8".....3.0"
1900's........49.6...52.2...46.6....84...24.........77.7.......30.4.....3.94"....0.6".....5.0"
1910's........50.6...55.1...47.8....92...22.........79.6.......29.3.....3.78"....2.3"....10.2"
1920's........50.2...56.1...47.3....90...12.........82.6.......28.3.....3.62"....0.9".....8.5"
1930's........49.9...53.7...47.9....89...28.........79.0.......31.9.....3.46"....0.6".....6.4"
1940's........51.4...56.9...46.1....91...24.........79.7.......31.5.....3.33"....1.1".....6.5"
1950's........52.4...55.0...48.2....85...23.........81.1.......31.7.....3.82"....1.0".....4.2"
1960's........52.1...55.9...49.0....91...28.........82.9.......31.8.....3.33"....0.1".....1.2"
1970's........52.2...55.2...47.9....96...25.........84.2.......29.1.....3.82"....0.1".....0.4"
1980's........53.3...56.2...51.2....88...21.........79.9.......31.8.....5.59"....1.0".....9.6"
1990's........53.2...55.7...50.5....91...23.........81.3.......32.4.....3.77"....0.1".....0.7"
2000's........53.5...56.1...49.8....96...29.........86.3.......32.0.....4.67"....0.5".....4.0"
2010's........54.2...57.9...49.5....92...26.........83.3.......33.7.....3.88"....0.6".....5.5"

1870-
2019..........51.3...………………………….....80.6.......30.6.....3.76"....0.8".....10.2"

1990-
2019..........53.6......…..............................….83.6.......32.7.....4.11"....0.4".....5.5"

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On 4/30/2019 at 9:13 PM, donsutherland1 said:

There was some light frost in southern Westchester County, too.

FOK: 28° (coldest April 29 or later reading since May 4, 2017, 28°)
JFK: 39° (coldest April 29 or later reading since May 1, 2008, 39°)

The latest 30s temps I remember was back in 1992 (possibly Pinatubo influenced)- a year in which we had no summer.  I cant remember the exact date but it was 37 at JFK and 39 in NYC.  Then in 1996 we had frost on May 14 in Long Island and snow in the Poconos with temps in the low 30s.

 

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On 5/1/2019 at 7:26 AM, bluewave said:

7 out of the last 10 Aprils since 2010 have featured positive temperature departures.

NYC

 Apr

2019....+2.4

 2018....-3.5

2017...+4.2

2016...+0.3

2015...+1.3

2014...-0.7

2013....0.0

2012...+1.8

 2011...+1.3

2010..+4.9

I think the lack of sun and so much rain was a much bigger story than the temps- it really didn't feel all that warm. 2010 and 2017 were much warmer.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the lack of sun and so much rain was a much bigger story than the temps- it really didn't feel all that warm. 2010 and 2017 were much warmer.

I'm sure high minimums were the reason why. However there were a handful of days in the 70s to near 80F with widespread 80s in NJ on a couple occasions. 

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm sure high minimums were the reason why. However there were a handful of days in the 70s to near 80F with widespread 80s in NJ on a couple occasions. 

yes we had a lot of cloudy days with high mins and low maxes where I kept my heating on.

the pollen count has been obnoxious the last couple of years- I'm sure the high humidity has something to do with it.

I wish someone would invent a way to remove pollen from the air or something to block trees from being able to produce it.

 

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the lack of sun and so much rain was a much bigger story than the temps- it really didn't feel all that warm. 2010 and 2017 were much warmer.

Several locations had the most days in April with measurable rainfall. So the clouds and moisture kept the minimums warmer. NYC finished with the 4th warmest minimum average temperature on record. The average high temperature was only 15th warmest.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 49.4 0
2 1910 48.5 0
3 2010 48.4 0
4 2019 47.6 0

 

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On 5/3/2019 at 9:25 AM, bluewave said:

Several locations had the most days in April with measurable rainfall. So the clouds and moisture kept the minimums warmer. NYC finished with the 4th warmest minimum average temperature on record. The average high temperature was only 15th warmest.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 49.4 0
2 1910 48.5 0
3 2010 48.4 0
4 2019 47.6 0

 

It was so wet this month that it was hard to do any gardening and the weeds are already out of control.  I see we have a bumper crop of mosquitoes this year too!  Do you think the cloudy/wet pattern will end as we head further into May?  Today was a breath of fresh air- literally!

 

 

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