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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Pretty impressive that it's snowing in Chicago on April 27.

The double dip -NAO really produced for them this month. First the event on the 14th and now today.

From the 14th:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1117611205160570886

As of 9 pm, today's official snow total for Chicago (O'hare) was up to 5.3" making it the 2nd snowiest calendar day on record for so late in the season. This missed the record snowiest day for so late in the season by only 1 tenth of an inch! The record is 5.4" back on 4/16/1961
10:10 PM · Apr 14, 2019 · Twitter Web Client
B228A13F-E448-4401-970F-9373EEDA99C6.thumb.gif.d75ad55dfd407b3fac2e08d35cf4e072.gif
 
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The light showers moving east will put NYC in a tie for the most days in April with measurable rainfall at 16.

 

1 1957 16 0
- 1934 16 0
- 1874 16 0
  2019 15 3
- 2004 15 0
- 2002 15 0
- 1981 15 0
- 1964 15 0
- 1939 15 0
- 1929 15 0
- 1916 15 0
- 1912 15 0
- 1873 15 0
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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The light showers moving east will put NYC in a tie for the most days in April with measurable rainfall at 16.

 

1 1957 16 0
- 1934 16 0
- 1874 16 0
  2019 15 3
- 2004 15 0
- 2002 15 0
- 1981 15 0
- 1964 15 0
- 1939 15 0
- 1929 15 0
- 1916 15 0
- 1912 15 0
- 1873 15 0

The wet pattern continues.

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The fire hose Pacific Jet extending across North America won’t let up. 

 

FAB04F63-0B2E-467C-8469-232B29CCF071.gif.4f088f7e231ec40f52be3888ef550644.gif

No it won't, that's for sure.

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

This should be a pretty wet week coming up. It would not surprise me to see some places pick up 3"+ of rainfall over the next 5-7 days. Flooding could become an issue at some point especially later in the week if some of the heavier amounts are realized.

I agree.  Many chances for rain over the next week.

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

No it won't, that's for sure.

ISP just tied its all-time record of 9 consecutive days with measurable precipitation.

1 9 1969-11-10
  9 2019-04-28
- 8 2003-01-06
- 8 2000-05-25
- 8 1998-05-11
- 8 1986-02-21
- 8 1978-08-07

 

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Although the late-season storm did not prove to be historic in Chicago, Chicago picked up 2.5" snow, which was its biggest snowfall on or after April 27. The old record was 2.2", which fell during May 1-2, 1940. With a season total of 49.5" snow, winter 2018-19 has become Chicago's 29th snowiest winter on record.

The storm responsible for the late-season snowstorm in Chicago could usher in one of the coldest late-season air masses the northern Middle Atlantic region has seen in nearly 5 years and possibly longer.

Central Park will likely see a low temperature in the 40°-42° range. For perspective, the last time New York City had a low temperature of 42° or below on April 29 or afterward was April 30, 2014 when the temperature fell to 41°. The last time New York City had a low temperature below 41° on or after April 29 was May 6, 1992 when the temperature bottomed out at 40°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +0.86 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.151.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently greater than 99%. There is also an implied 84% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record. The most likely range for April's mean temperature is 55.4°-55.8°.

On April 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.261 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the April 26-adjusted figure of 2.288.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

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