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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks that way right now with the magnitude of the ongoing AO reversal. It will take the pattern time to rebound from such a steep decline. The GEFS now has close to a 6 SD total decline. I believe that would be a first for the AO this time of year. Going from +3 to near -3 is as extreme as it gets in April. 

E7A7621B-4EC5-45AF-88F4-D82F1C3F6FC4.thumb.gif.3441babc9f8b6b7ca209466d6d6c6535.gif

I think our area could see a snow event from this. Obviously details tbd

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks that way right now with the magnitude of the ongoing AO reversal. It will take the pattern time to rebound from such a steep decline. The GEFS now has close to a 6 SD total decline. I believe that would be a first for the AO this time of year. Going from +3 to near -3 is as extreme as it gets in April. 

E7A7621B-4EC5-45AF-88F4-D82F1C3F6FC4.thumb.gif.3441babc9f8b6b7ca209466d6d6c6535.gif

How cold are we talking?

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33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We are moving into the second week of April, we are finished with snow.

I understand that. But with that potent of a -NAO it wouldn’t surprise me to see a threat for something 

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Tomorrow into Saturday morning, a system will bring a general 0.25"-0.75" precipitation across northern New Jersey, southeastern New York State (including New York City), and southern New England. Some snow could mix in across extreme northwestern New Jersey and well north and west of New York City. A general coating to an inch is possible at such locations as Binghamton, Middletown, and Oneonta. No snow is likely in and around New York City.

Behind the storm, milder air will return to the region for the weekend. Temperatures could soar into the middle and upper 60s into southern New England on Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +17.23 today. That is the SOI's highest figure since the SOI reached +18.27 on December 28, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.739. The AO had been positive for 55 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the November 26, 2006 through January 20, 2007 period when the AO was positive for 56 consecutive days. The AO will very likely continue to fall rapidly over the next several days.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

On April 3, the MJO was Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.217 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the April 2-adjusted figure of 0.247.

Finally, through 5 pm today, Caribou has picked up 156.8" snow. That ranks winter 2018-19 as that city's 4th snowiest winter, behind winter 1981-82 when 159.8" snow was recorded. It is likely that 6" or more snow will fall there over the next 7 days. Both the 12z ECMWF and EPS mean is 9". 44/51 (86%) EPS members show 6" or more snow and 22/51 (43%) show 10" or more.

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some years the cold hung on until June 1st...1961 and 1967 had cold rain around Memorial Day with snow north...both times it got hot in June fast and furious...1966 had a cold May also with snow in the far northern regions...it hit 101 in June 1966...

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The -NAO pattern developing on the long range GFS and Euro=yuuuuck for a good long stretch. It'll be backdoor city because of the low heights NE of us, and it looks like the parade of storms from the Pacific will continue and keep us wet. Really hoping that's overdone. The blocking shown over Greenland will do away with any kind of warmth here as long as that persists. And no, it won't be cold enough for snow outside of the high elevations in NY and New England. 

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Next 8 days averaging 55degs., or about 6degs. AN.

We have to wait till April 13, for any BN T's.

EURO Weeklies are BN into early May, starting mid-April.     Precipitation returns to Normal during May 

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8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The -NAO pattern developing on the long range GFS and Euro=yuuuuck for a good long stretch. It'll be backdoor city because of the low heights NE of us, and it looks like the parade of storms from the Pacific will continue and keep us wet. Really hoping that's overdone. The blocking shown over Greenland will do away with any kind of warmth here as long as that persists. And no, it won't be cold enough for snow outside of the high elevations in NY and New England. 

My worst fears suddenly being realized

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Ironically the Accuweather Long Term predicted this kind of spring

 

Frankly, with the weather changes over the last 20 years, you have a good probability that the summer is going to be HOT. And that the heat will extend thru Sept.

With those odds, I will take as much cool spring weather as I can get.

 

Ironically, June is one of our months least affected by “warming” over the last 20 years

 

Enjoy it guys

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12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The -NAO pattern developing on the long range GFS and Euro=yuuuuck for a good long stretch. It'll be backdoor city because of the low heights NE of us, and it looks like the parade of storms from the Pacific will continue and keep us wet. Really hoping that's overdone. The blocking shown over Greenland will do away with any kind of warmth here as long as that persists. And no, it won't be cold enough for snow outside of the high elevations in NY and New England. 

have to hope the storms are suppressed south which is possible if the block is strong enough

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12 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

No, he's right. Heat before May is garbage.

No one can be thrilled with 40s and light rain/stratus, which we can easily have many days of in a backdoor pattern. 60s or 70s/sun is awesome. Hopefully on the north shore now there won’t be the Ambrose Jet frigid days Long Beach gets stuck with. 

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1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

How?  Seems highly unlikely--I hope you are right though

warm air...

namconus_T850a_neus_51.png

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

My favorite

Man. Didn't you just take vacation to Florida like a month ago? I would assume Florida to be the last place we'd find you. 

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5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Will this be a one day tease?

it looks warm through wednesday

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