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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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8 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

What would that mean?

Probably a cooler than normal mid April. We could see some late season nor'easters if the -NAO ends up being really strong. 

NAO effects will get more and more diluted as season progresses though. 

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Stratosphere seems to be warming for the last two or three weeks.    What does that do when we are outside the 'cold season'?    Anyone know?   

These non-winter warmings do not seem to figure in forecasting, since I don't hear it mentioned out of season. 

I am guessing the reason is a smaller N---S T gradient in summer to start with at surface.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Of course the NAO and AO wants to go negative as we head into April.

 

Never fails lol

models have been advertising that since Nov.  Has yet to really happen...

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Through April 1 at 5 pm, snowfall totals for select cities were: Binghamton: 81.0" (33rd snowiest winter); Buffalo: 118.7" (12th snowiest winter); Burlington: 102.8" (10th snowiest winter); and, Caribou: 154.1" (4th snowiest winter). Those cities could see one or two measurable snow events this week. There is potential that measurable snow could even be record in an area running from extreme northwestern New Jersey to Boston this week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -4.40 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.597. The AO has now been positive for 53 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the November 26, 2006 through January 20, 2007 period when the AO was positive for 56 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in coming days.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal even as the period starts on a colder than normal note. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of an above normal anomaly in New York City after the first 10 days of April is 55% and approximately 60% for the month as a whole.

On March 31, the MJO returned to Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.418 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 30-adjusted figure of 0.567.

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The continued bumps west for the mid week coastal storm are certainly intriguing especially for portions of New England. Something to continue to keep an eye on in the NYC metro area as well (not for snow) but for more substantial rain/wind impacts IMO.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

The continued bumps west for the mid week coastal storm are certainly intriguing especially for portions of New England. Something to continue to keep an eye on in the NYC metro area as well (not for snow) but for more substantial rain/wind impacts IMO.

0z NAM is well east-most are dry verbatim

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13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I do not remember trees being leafed out for the April fools day bomb. We only had a couple inches of the pastiest, paste here on the south shore but that occurred with extremely heavy rates and temps in the mid 30s. Parts of NE got absolutely buried!

 

13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

too early for leaves-I wonder if he was referencing the Oct 2012 storm

It was a pretty warm March and things were popping a few weeks early. I got 17" in just a few hours after it was in the 50's during the day while I played golf. It started as rain, the wind shifted and it exploded. Insane snowfall rates for a few hours with crazy wind and trees snapping all over, power was out for 3 or 4 days, it was a mess. By late in the afternoon after the storm it was just a chilly spring day and at least half the snow was gone already. I remember pretty much every bit of it because it was so anomalous and after a near complete dud of a winter that almost destroyed my 1st year ski/snowboard shop that I had to move it out of the space we had rented on 3/30 it had an even more intense effect.

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9 hours ago, gravitylover said:

 

It was a pretty warm March and things were popping a few weeks early. I got 17" in just a few hours after it was in the 50's during the day while I played golf. It started as rain, the wind shifted and it exploded. Insane snowfall rates for a few hours with crazy wind and trees snapping all over, power was out for 3 or 4 days, it was a mess. By late in the afternoon after the storm it was just a chilly spring day and at least half the snow was gone already. I remember pretty much every bit of it because it was so anomalous and after a near complete dud of a winter that almost destroyed my 1st year ski/snowboard shop that I had to move it out of the space we had rented on 3/30 it had an even more intense effect.

yeah it was a snowless winter up until that point....

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

new Nam is bone dry for most here-won't even see a rain shower unless you're well east

 

Forecast soundings showing brush fire danger Wednesday. Very strong downslope flow really dries out and warms. Could see 40 mph or higher gusts with deep mixing to near 800 mb. High temperatures could easily overperform. It will be one of our warmer spring days if you don’t mind the gusty winds.

KEWR   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    4/02/2019  1200 UTC
DT /APR   2/APR   3                /APR   4                /APR   5
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    38          67          39          60    38
TMP  46 46 42 42 41 40 42 57 64 64 57 48 43 40 45 51 56 57 51 41 41
DPT  22 25 29 33 32 32 33 31 26 22 18 16 18 20 23 23 22 19 18 23 26
CLD  SC BK OV OV OV BK FW FW FW SC FW CL FW FW BK BK BK SC BK BK OV
WDR  14 11 08 06 01 33 29 26 26 28 30 31 29 23 25 28 28 29 31 03 05
WSP  10 08 06 07 08 09 08 11 20 23 19 17 06 05 06 08 14 13 11 08 08

FF990706-B3F3-44BA-9B46-7CCB5D1FEA7E.thumb.png.14e846974083026365f9a517f27711af.png 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

new Nam is bone dry for most here-won't even see a rain shower unless you're well east

namconus_apcpn_neus_10.png

Damn. Soil moisture is low for this time of year in sun exposed areas. (Hence the huge forest fire in the New Jersey pine lands this week). 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Fire weather watch for all of NJ tomorrow.  Gusts to 45 possible 

new NAM is dry and it's been fairly dry the last few weeks...anything that gets going will spread fast.

namconus_apcpn_neus_8.png

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RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EST TUE APR 02 2019

...RECORD SNOWFALL IN CHARLOTTE NC...

A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW HAS 
EVER BEEN OBSERVED ON APRIL 2 IN CHARLOTTE. 

CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 
IN CHARLOTTE DATING BACK TO 1879.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1113149874441211905

For only the 2nd time in 100 years we saw measurable snow in April in #Charlotte. It was also the 6th latest date on record. Here's the updated totals map with a swath of 1-2" from Chester, York, Lancaster...

 

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EST TUE APR 02 2019

...RECORD SNOWFALL IN CHARLOTTE NC...

A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SNOW HAS 
EVER BEEN OBSERVED ON APRIL 2 IN CHARLOTTE. 

CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 
IN CHARLOTTE DATING BACK TO 1879.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1113149874441211905

For only the 2nd time in 100 years we saw measurable snow in April in #Charlotte. It was also the 6th latest date on record. Here's the updated totals map with a swath of 1-2" from Chester, York, Lancaster...

 

Kind of a good pattern for it, actually

t0.gif

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