Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. Yeah not sure what he was looking at. Just beer after beer after beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Definitely shifted east a bit not much but it did It did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure if it ticked vs stronger low which is good. That's definitely a better 700 mb look. Doesn't close off until it's farther east, but it definitely deforms the flow with a nice kink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. Yeah not sure what he was looking at. Hour 48 is east by 25 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Definitely shifted east a bit not much but it did I'm not trying to be an azz but are you looking at the right model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My take away point is that models are struggling mightily and things will tend to shift south . Its actually been hard for me to be “negative “ this winter but i told myself I would remain as unbiased as I could be storm after storm i really would love to see a large snowstorm. I would trade 350$ for 2 KU’s for Boston if it put them over 80” without hesitation . I see DXR to Tolland to ORH to N shore mass points SE with best shot of 6”+ at this time given where I anticipate models in 24 hrs . Agree on all points. Models have def overdone things up until the final hours on most of these events. Your “negativity” is actually reality... Weenie goggles are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It did not Hr 45 was nw. Hr 48 east. Hr 51 nw. Should have looked more closely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 He’s looking at where the little red L is placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 And snow maps probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s looking at where the little red L is placed. Yeah I was for that.. didnt look much into it.. but ya stronger and better overall.. just frustrated at this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Told my daughter last week she would likely extend school vacation on Monday. Last night made me second guess but feeling a little better today. Do we need to get today's system out of the way for models to hone in on the likely track or have they basically figured that out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 RGEM is beautiful targets SNE and Long Island with heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This one is looking good for most of SNE as per 12z thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'd keep an eye on 00z soundings out west tonight. Compare those obs to model forecast heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The revenge of SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 What is helping to keep mix line south of CT is the trajectory of the storm. It's heading off the NC coast heading NE in lieu of say southern NJ (I know DUH). Will take a very large swing NW to get mix to coastal CT say west of NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not really sure what you are looking at or what point you are trying to make...this isn't a KU. It never has been. But this isn't exactly flat....fast flow? Sure. Zonal? Not so much...it's pretty classic actually for a good quick hitter...vortmax riding up the east side of the longwave trough....if you think it's going to whiff, that's fine. Maybe it trends that way...but I don't see it right now. @STILL N OF PIKE It sounds nice to tie it up in a nice, neat bow and attribute it to the flow being too progressive (ok) and zonal (no), in then in the same breath mock those attributing the meteorological misfortune to some bad luck. Bit of hypocrisy because what deciding factor do you think we are at the mercy of with no blocking in a progressive flow with an "unmanned firehose".....the answer is luck. People just need a "smoking gun" and an object to project there frustration, so "luck" doesn't cut it, but it doesn't make it less valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It sounds nice to tie it up in a nice, neat bow and attribute it to the flow being too progressive (ok) and zonal (no), in then in the same breath mock those attributing the meteorological misfortune to some bad luck. Bit of hypocrisy because what deciding factor do you think we are at the mercy of with no blocking in a progressive flow with an "unmanned firehose".....the answer is luck. I've given up on the debate that there's some inherent identifying feature of the longwave pattern that shows NNE favorable (except when it's not and D.C. gets hit) for now...maybe we can revisit it after the season. But this storm is pretty favorable for SNE right now. I'm under no illusion that it can't change but there's no reason to expect a sudden shift from an objective standpoint. It's actually stabilized a bit over the past couple cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I've given up on the debate that there's some inherent identifying feature of the longwave pattern that shows NNE favorable (except when it's not and D.C. gets hit) for now...maybe we can revisit it after the season. But this storm is pretty favorable for SNE right now. I'm under no illusion that it can't change but there's no reason to expect a sudden shift from an objective standpoint. It's actually stabilized a bit over the past couple cycles. That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that. LOL, you want to talk about luck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I said well over a month ago that this winter, around here, was going to come down to one quasi-decent event in March, when the temps are marginal, and people would be doing victory dances. Here we are lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I really do love this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks good to me..which means queue the bridge jumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's the 00z run. 12z accum isnt't out yet. Whoops! Deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's the 00z run. 12z accum isnt't out yet. I thought that looked exactly like the map I posted last night at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Monday looks good as we mentioned earlier. 6-10 or more any many areas. Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ... It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen...It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see Tip typified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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