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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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I think a good rule of thumb for those of us who aren’t in northern Carroll county is to never get too excited for a storm if DC is getting screwed. Because without DC, there’s way too little room for error for those of us a bit further north.

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think a good rule of thumb for those of us who aren’t in northern Carroll county is to never get too excited for a storm if DC is getting screwed. Because without DC, there’s way too little room for error for those of us a bit further north.

Huh? There are plenty of examples in previous seasons where areas not far from DC scored when DC did not. 

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4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Huh? There are plenty of examples in previous seasons where areas not far from DC scored when DC did not. 

Yea, but at least in those cases D.C. usually has white rain or another form of mix, sleet or non accumulating  snow.  In this case, absolutely zero wintry precipitation of any kind in city. And You could tell this morning it was too warm in city, and that you’d have to travel far, far outside the beltway for that to change. I guess occasionally you see nothing but a driving rain downtown while Rockville gets 5 inches but I really can’t think of that many times where it plays out like that.

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9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think a good rule of thumb for those of us who aren’t in northern Carroll county is to never get too excited for a storm if DC is getting screwed. Because without DC, there’s way too little room for error for those of us a bit further north.

I got 3" out of the Friday storm and DC basically got nothing, so I dont think thats a good indicator. This storm it just wasn't cold enough and no HP keeping the warm air from filtering in. 

The GEM really sucked for this storm. It stubbornly kept showing snow even east of 95. The R/S line ended up north of 70. The Euro snow contours were probably the closest to correct, but still needed to shave 2-3" off the totals. 

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2 hours ago, haudidoody said:

Nothing but rain... already way ahead on the year... miserable.

I feel very bad for you guys, I wanted SNOW for the Mid Atlantic.

About the rain totals, parts of N VA already up to nearly 9 inches on the year.

NOTHING is right in the world, when the Washington Metropolitan Region does not get snow.

I wanted heavy snow for you all so bad.

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If the axis of heavier snow was 50 miles east on the models leading up to this “storm” this would’ve been a pretty embarrassing situation for LWX in the media. They’re lucky that the forecast for 6-8 wasn’t in DC or they would be getting raked over the coals. 

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

A March bust...how could it ever happen lol

Mayor here in NYC closed schools and I only have an inch on the ground lol

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My folks up in new city, New York have 6” and it is still absolutely ripping up there. Places in interior CT will see over a foot. 

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Measured 4.5" at 3:00 am here in Hanover just across the MD line. If I would have snow boarded was probably talking nearer to 6 all things considered. Went to bed at 7:30 so didn't witness it for fact but looking through the layers of the snow fall I see no indications we ever turned over to sleet or rain. So it looks to be an all snow event. Except for a brief period of time in the late afternoon where the snow got somewhat icey for the most part we were probably talking around 10:1 ratio snow and probably closer to 12:1 by the time I went to bed. But the ratios don't mean a thing when a light to somewhat moderate snow is falling into 33-34 degree temps and the ground is being heated by the deadly March sun. Temps did finally hit freezing at sundown and then that was when decent accumulations started occurring. So final call here of 4.5".

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Nothing at home from this storm so still short of 30" on the season. If Ji was being honest he is short as well I don't doubt leesburgwx is at 30 because he is more nw than both of us. One more storm please to get ji and me to 30!

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6 hours ago, jayyy said:

My folks up in new city, New York have 6” and it is still absolutely ripping up there. Places in interior CT will see over a foot. 

New York City itself busted hard. Upton was forecasting 7; looks like city got 2 to 4.

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8 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Sheesh this storm was barely even a deal in this subforum if you got screwed too.

yup, 2.8" of slop. Sleet sat overhead for hours last night, minus one last hurrah as the back edge came through. Hasn't been my year. Oh well. 

26.4" now for the season

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So on my train ride to DC from Brunswick, Point of Rocks the ground is white.  Barnesville the ground is patchy white dusting at best.  Nothing in Germantown, south.

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Last measurement at 10:30 was 4.7" . Which is basically what I was thinking for my yard 4-6" . With marginal surface I knew 6-9" was not likely . Never turned to sleet ....the snow got real icey for a short time like others mentioned but was a great storm . I'm well over 40" for the year and will look back on this season as a very good winter . I also believe we're not done with chances . The storm train hasn't showed signs of backing down all winter so I think chances are high the next 2-3 weeks a score will happen. 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

yup, 2.8" of slop. Sleet sat overhead for hours last night, minus one last hurrah as the back edge came through. Hasn't been my year. Oh well. 

26.4" now for the season

When I was looking at soundings on the 3k and Hrrr all morning and afternoon yesterday ....once I plugged in latitudes more then 15 Miles south of the m/d line mix would show up around the 22z to 3z time frame.  So I wasn't surprised that Frederick to Westminster east to just north of  Hunt Valley changed over for long periods in cases  ..but I was surprised you were a mix in Parkton for such a long period .

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6 minutes ago, Clueless said:

I can report a trace.  

I can report a small area of snow under the wiper blade. I honestly thought, as late as 6 PM last night,  Northern Delaware schools would be getting at the least a 2 hour  delay.  Surprisgly they closed last Friday from Thursday's night storm which was only around 3 inches maybe 4 in certain spots.      

Thr trend this year has also been warm wet and we hardly ever get snow on the ground with an incoming cold air mass.  How freak'in boring. Like to go back to the 1960's winters or lore. 

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Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

I can report a small area of snow under the wiper blade. I honestly thought, as late as 6 PM last night,  Northern Delaware schools would be getting at the least a 2 hour  delay.  Surprisgly they closed last Friday from Thursday's night storm which was only around 3 inches maybe 4 in certain spots.      

Thr trend this year has also been warm wet and we hardly ever get snow on the ground with an incoming cold air mass.  How freak'in boring. Like to go back to the 1960's winters or lore. 

Yard looked *white after a few hours of really trying hard yesterday afternoon.  Then we got fog and rain.  Then we wound up with some sleet and freezing last night,  topped with a bit of snow. I think we need to move on from Winter.  

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I thought the lattitude here would help me to a degree even the the elevation is 72 feet LOL

I knew there were going to be issues when I checked the obs last night and saw folk West of me at rather high elevations reporting rain. 

I knew at that time Pamela Anderson was visiting again. I had to text my daughter at UD in Delaware and tell here classes as planned. 

showme was right the mids sucked. AND ......  64 pages for freakin rain.    Time for the warm weather.  

 

 

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

 

These storms often come down to crappy rates. The models screw this up constantly. Rates are never as good as progged around here.

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1 hour ago, real said:

New York City itself busted hard. Upton was forecasting 7; looks like city got 2 to 4.

NYC schools closed... so they must have seen more than 2-4”. That being said... that happens frequently. I lived in the lower Hudson valley for 24 years. The north shore of Long Island and the Hudson valley will get  6+, south shore of Long Island and NYC see a few inches, maybe even plain rain. The urban heat island effect is insane in New York.

 

On a a side note... places near Boston saw 16-18”! Wow. 

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