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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, all rain except for mappy and Hoffman and the M/D line crew.

12z FV3 looks close to what the GFS says

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If this misses, it is going to feel like somewhat a painful one now that we have tasted what some good runs look like. ICON leading the way, but going to need the Euro to come south a bit to hold things up for this one. 

The icon is a good trend catcher and trended colder at 12z, but the other models look a bit more amped and warmer overall in this suite thus far. 

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Welp, it was inevitable that NYC and NE would have their revenge.  We’re actually been pretty fortunate not to have one of these storms up to this point. 

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

If this misses, it is going to feel like somewhat a painful one now that we have tasted what some good runs look like. ICON leading the way, but going to need the Euro to come south a bit to hold things up for this one. 

The icon is a good trend catcher and trended colder at 12z, but the other models look a bit more amped and warmer overall in this suite thus far. 

Icon has been too far south with the rain/snow line all winter.

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, all rain except for mappy and Hoffman and the M/D line crew.

even up here it looks pretty crappy.   850's push north of the PA line during the best qpf.  It looks like a mixy slushy 2-3" here with the significant snows up in PA.  

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GFS/FV3/GGEM all warmer.  Honestly if we go back 72 hours the trend has and continues to be warmer.  There will always be some windshield wiper effect and odd runs that bounce around but if you take the average trend from all the models over the last 3 days it has been a pretty consistent northward trend.  I had hoped that was over with the runs last night but it seems to have resumed this morning.  

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Yeah this one looks like a losing battle (particularly for the cities)...Figured we'd be trolled by finally getting a coastal track...but with not enough cold air around, lol So is this it, I'm guessing? If so...we certainly held true to the weak Niño average of 15"...lol (maybe 18" if we get 2-3 tomorrow morning!)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah this one looks like a losing battle (particularly for the cities)...Figured we'd be trolled by finally getting a coastal track...but with not enough cold air around, lol So is this it, I'm guessing? If so...we certainly held true to the weak Niño average of 15"...lol (maybe 18" if we get 2-3 tomorrow morning!)

March 9 looks like a legit threat depending on the depth of the cold left by then... and you are making conclusions way too soon.  Trends suck right now but its still 100 hours away, lots of time for changes.  And averages don't work that way.  

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2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Is it me or is the UKMET a 997 on the BM

But it doesn't matter what happens once the low is to our northeast, might matter to NYC and Boston but for our purposes we need the low to track to our south as it crosses our longitude.  Without the in between time steps and temperatures there is no way to know yet if the UKMET is any good for us.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it doesn't matter what happens once the low is to our northeast, might matter to NYC and Boston but for our purposes we need the low to track to our south as it crosses our longitude.  Without the in between time steps and temperatures there is no way to know yet if the UKMET is any good for us.  

Doesn’t GFS have it track to our south?

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Doesn’t GFS have it track to our south?

not by enough... it needs to track no further north than about the VA/NC border and stay southeast of Norfolk as it crosses that position for DC to have a chance.  

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 9 looks like a legit threat depending on the depth of the cold left by then... and you are making conclusions way too soon.  Trends suck right now but its still 100 hours away, lots of time for changes.  And averages don't work that way.  

I guess you're right...I had assumed since we hadn't had any positive steps the last couple days that this one didn't have much of a chance... so what saves this threat?

(And you're right--I know bigger numbers can be a part of a lower average...although I would like to see just how many weak Niños actually produced above average!)

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess you're right...I had assumed since we hadn't had any positive steps the last couple days that this one didn't have much of a chance... so what saves this threat?

(And you're right--I know bigger numbers can be a part of a lower average...although I would like to see just how many weak Niños actually produced above average!)

about the same percentage as all winters...about 25-30%.  Actually the only category that gives us a significantly higher chance than that at a big snowfall year are moderate to strong modoki years.  Those are like 80% above average snowfall.  All other enso type categories vary between a 15-30% chance of having an above average snowfall year.   Well except for moderate east based nino which there has only been one in the last 50 years and it was a slightly above average year...so there a moderate east based nino gives us a 100% chance of above normal snow!!!   

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

12Z GFS is all snow here.  At least for now.  More than 0.50" QPF.  FV-3 mixes, and is of course much wetter.

If this was on a Friday night or Saturday, I'd come out there to chase.   Pretty sure we're about done down here.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

about the same percentage as all winters...about 25-30%.  Actually the only category that gives us a significantly higher chance than that at a big snowfall year are moderate to strong modoki years.  Those are like 80% above average snowfall.  All other enso type categories vary between a 15-30% chance of having an above average snowfall year.   Well except for moderate east based nino which there has only been one in the last 50 years and it was a slightly above average year...so there a moderate east based nino gives us a 100% chance of above normal snow!!!   

Then we know what to root for...lol Now was the last mod/strong modoki 2009-10? (I thought one of you had mentioned 2014 or 2015, but I could be mistaken). But if it was...c'mon we gotta be due soon, lolol

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, all rain except for mappy and Hoffman and the M/D line crew.

lol its lame

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The euro is definitely better but we need more. Low tracks over the southern Chesapeake. Mid 30s and cold rain for many of us but it’s closer. 

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

The euro is definitely better but we need more. Low tracks over the southern Chesapeake. Mid 30s and cold rain for many of us but it’s closer. 

That sounds pretty good for here.

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