Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is garbage...it will never see this properly....i dont buy it For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs I won’t forgive that model for showing and taking away my 22” of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How do you forecast with these crappy models. 72 hours away they can’t somewhat agree. I don’t know what to make of any forecast for Sunday night/Monday. I think Late mon, Tues is fairly clear at least for northern MD with snow/maybe ice to rain though Weather forecasting predates models, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again. if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, AU74 said: Weather forecasting predates models, IIRC. Completely aware, but models play a huge role in forecasting. I’m not sure how anyone can make a confident forecast at this point. The models haven’t been good this year in my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again. if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed. I know but the models have been bad...did you read the discussion a couple days ago by the NWS how they were essentially completely unsure because models showed Tuesday temps ranging anywhere between upper 20s to 70 lol. That said it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I’m interested in the Ukie. Because it gave us snow 12 hours ago. If it caves thats okay because i can hug the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Synoptic history is the way to go but it requires years of monitoring events to establish a pattern of outcome. Models use very little analog data and are mostly math calculations of A +B=C or B+C=D, examples; but not prediction. Almost the only think I look at now is precedent and current 500mb patterns and as something gets closer then 850s and boundary. Keith does this also and is better with seasonal patterns then anyone I’ve ever met or seen and hes nailing it again this winter. Start keeping records of set ups and outcomes. It takes a while but if you do it to even 60% accuracy then you won’t need to wring your hands over every 6 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 you can comment on the fallibility of the models without it being "hand-wringing" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: How do you forecast with these crappy models. But the question was ^^^^. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I don't recall a situation in which a low that far west has given us a good anything. For me, I'm hoping over the next 48 hours or so that the models start getting that thing further east like the euro runs from a few days back had it. Ideally I'd like to see it get as far east as Cincinnati before it rides north. I think that's a dream though. I suppose that most of that initial precip is coming from the wave out in front. I don't think a low in Kansas/Missouri can be expected to produce a bunch of precip here. All in all, I don't think this looks good right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Ukie looks fairly similar to 0z (off the not very to easy to read Meteo center maps) precip approaching with temps below freezing both at the surface and 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again. if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed. This is seriously insulting to the people that work on NWP. Each run of each model uses their best mathematical ability to model the atmosphere. The results out in time are wrong because we have not yet fully completed all the equations that govern the atmosphere and our ability to measure all of the variables that go into it are incomplete. But they are doing a darn good job compared to 10 and 20 years ago, AND a hell of a lot better then if we still had to rely on current conditions and extrapolation. Good luck with that beyond 24-48 hours lol. You're insistence that there is some nefarious motive among the entire weather community across various nations and agencies both private and public is both ridiculous and insulting! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, frd said: Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. That storm is a cutter on ALL other guidance right now so did we really have any actual expectations pinned on that? The GFS just had one run with a hiccup like that one Euro run a couple days ago. I guess the fact they both had the same hiccup means that idea of the h5 cutting under is there as a possible solutions if the 50/50 goes ape but the fact it's only shown up on those 2 op runs out of the last dozen or so across all guidance, with almost no ensemble support...means its an extremely low probability with a cutter by far the most likely solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie looks fairly similar to 0z (off the not very to easy to read Meteo center maps) precip approaching with temps below freezing both at the surface and 850. Good amount of precip between hours 60 and 72... at least 10mm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, frd said: Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. The 50/50 is still there. We are just seeing different timings on both features (50/50, NS drop) The 50/50 is quicker and the NS is slower so we are seeing a much larger gap between them. So we are losing the suppression of the heights in the east way before the trough even enters the picture. You can see this by how quickly heights build up the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is seriously insulting to the people that work on NWP. Each run of each model uses their best mathematical ability to model the atmosphere. The results out in time are wrong because we have not yet fully completed all the equations that govern the atmosphere and our ability to measure all of the variables that go into it are incomplete. But they are doing a darn good job compared to 10 and 20 years ago, AND a hell of a lot better then if we still had to rely on current conditions and extrapolation. Good luck with that beyond 24-48 hours lol. You're insistence that there is some nefarious motive among the entire weather community across various nations and agencies both private and public is both ridiculous and insulting! He has been repeating this same crap over and over for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z UKIE prints out around 2" QPF through 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: He has been repeating this same crap over and over for years. I can only take so much of the tin foil hat crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 you should really consider things from both sides, even if one side is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position ETA: Good through 96... but starting to lose 850s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position The high position is similar to November but the difference is that event approached you guys as well as up this way from about a 180-210 degree angle so the WAA precip all generated fairly far to the east getting coastal areas. This event has more of an approach from the west-southwest so it starts later and likely lower amounts with more WAA precip going north and west of the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position ETA: Good through 96... but starting to lose 850s Let’s hope the Ukie is right through 90 with this precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 850s are gone by 102... but temps are right around 32/33 through 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Decent 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Reporter: Yoda, you've just won the first 2 billion dollar powerball in history, how do you feel? Yoda: Decent 5 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Easy to see why the Ukie is a big hit. Take a look how far east it gets compared to the GFS and Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Reporter: Yoda, you've just won the first 2 billion dollar powerball in history, how do you feel? Yoda: Decent You got the hang of it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 ^It's also the weakest with the Midwest low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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