Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Eps meteogram is a great visual highlighting the 10-12th window. For 10+ day leads this is a pretty strong signal on the eps. Pretty rare honestly. Just neer to hope it loads up with pinks and purples. I will love every minute of the torch next week if we're tracking a legit threat inside of 7 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Still no good -NAO signal on 18z GFS ensembles. (Stratosphere warming time is until Feb 17.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 @psuhoffman Lol. We are def on the same page here and totally agree about it being a strong signal for long leads. If the stars align we're getting back to back storms. All this can go poof of course but the current ens mean pattern evolution still looks the same in 5 days then we're tracking some sort of storm at a reasonable range. Ops and ens can lock in pretty far out in time with blocked flow. Potentially one of those setups where we can be confident 5-7 days out instead of the typical 2-3 days out and we're still on pins and needles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Still no good -NAO signal on 18z GFS ensembles. (Stratosphere warming time is until Feb 17.) This post makes me wonder if you know what a -nao is 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: This post makes me wonder if you know what a -nao is GEFS 384 looks like -NAO to these weenie eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: This post makes me wonder if you know what a -nao is I was looking sun but wind this pattern is pna with epo and Nina 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I was looking sun but wind this pattern is pna with epo and Nina Excuse me stewardess I speak Chuck 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This post makes me wonder if you know what a -nao is Imagine the Earth rotates faster and slower at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Now I know how my poor students feel when I am trying to explain simple first order natural(open loop) transfer functions irt closed loop, negative feedback control theory. Eh just take them straight to state space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Excuse me stewardess I speak Chuck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Lol. Another straight weenie run on the Fv3. Snow on the 8th, 10th, and 13th. Another overrunning shortwave setting up in the plains on the 15th. This is a good visual for what i posted earlier and a west track still getting us good. Blocking can make a bad track snow on us anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Nice depiction of the evolution on the 12z EPS. Look at that -NAO! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Eh just take them straight to state space. lolz I do touch on Laplace transforms, mostly so they are familiar with the notation, but I teach process control/instrumentation/automation to industry people(mostly maritime, navy, etc) with extremely varied math backgrounds, so I have a bag of tricks so to speak. y=mx+b can be a challenge sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice depiction of the evolution on the 12z EPS. Look at that -NAO! Not Stratosphere warming signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Ha, just looked through the FV3 run as well. Sign me up for that ish. I like the EPS depiction of the Atlantic side better than the GEFS actually. Better NAO ridge axis and it splits off from the WAR slightly with hints of 50/50 troughing. We can deal with the big -PNA if that verified verbatim. But throw just a hint of PNA ridging in the Southwest and it’s WOOFHONKWOOF time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 36 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice depiction of the evolution on the 12z EPS. Look at that -NAO! Yeah I have been waiting for this. GEFS and CFS have been bullish, while the EPS has been kinda luke warm, which had me a little skeptical. This is very encouraging. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps meteogram is a great visual highlighting the 10-12th window. For 10+ day leads this is a pretty strong signal on the eps. Pretty rare honestly. Just neer to hope it loads up with pinks and purples. I will love every minute of the torch next week if we're tracking a legit threat inside of 7 days. Yeesh, I hope it’s right because the first 10 days of February (our best climo) looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Imagine the Earth rotates faster and slower at different times. I think you are on to something. I've noticed the days get shorter in winter and longer in summer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I have been waiting for this. GEFS and CFS have been bullish, while the EPS has been kinda luke warm, which had me a little skeptical. This is very encouraging. Has it really been that long since a day 10-15 fantasy land model map showed a killer pattern this season? I suppose at some point its got to be right just based on chance. You guys are the best... god bless ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I think you are on to something. I've noticed the days get shorter in winter and longer in summer. The summer solstice from a previous winter is driving the current Nina pattern that is causing the NAO to go weakly negative to positive resulting in a Nino EPO driven WAR forcing a downstream ridge. I’ll watch it closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Has it really been that long since a day 10-15 fantasy land model map showed a killer pattern this season? I suppose at some point its got to be right just based on chance. You guys are the best... god bless ya I was referring specifically to the development of a strong west-based -NAO. EPS has been more reluctant than most other guidance, including the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Has it really been that long since a day 10-15 fantasy land model map showed a killer pattern this season? I suppose at some point its got to be right just based on chance. You guys are the best... god bless ya Day 10-15 ensembles score a bit higher than climo. So they do add “some” value. They hit the early December pattern. They hit the late December crap. And they got some parts of the current pattern right including the tpv displacement. They messed up the NAO. That has a big effect on our snow chances. But if your here to tell us that long range guidance is very low probability I think most are aware. And I think we would all rather be tracking some hecs that’s less than we week away but we’re not so we’re all here looking for signs of the next threat window. Even if those signs are low probability the ensembles are the best tools we have so what should we talk about in the long range pattern discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10-15 ensembles score a bit higher than climo. So they do add “some” value. They hit the early December pattern. They hit the late December crap. And they got some parts of the current pattern right including the tpv displacement. They messed up the NAO. That has a big effect on our snow chances. But if your here to tell us that long range guidance is very low probability I think most are aware. And I think we would all rather be tracking some hecs that’s less than we week away but we’re not so we’re all here looking for signs of the next threat window. Even if those signs are low probability the ensembles are the best tools we have so what should we talk about in the long range pattern discussion thread? If there were any trust issues I have about the LR, this was the biggest one. And since you seemed more hesitant about it being real this time than Bob, I haven't known what to think, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Did he explain the uwnd charts? nope and nobody else did either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: nope and nobody else did either I’m fairly certain that he is just pointing out the anomaly of the east-west winds. U (and V) are used as coordinates to describe direction. In this case, U would be east-west, V would be north-south, and W (or Z) would be vertical from the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 This is a signal for long term cold. Look at how these temperatures (cold) are stacked in western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Nice depiction of the evolution on the 12z EPS. Look at that -NAO! What I like is the manner in which the h500 tries to do some backing and align itself over the western half of Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Total precip on the GEFS. Pretty good signal for an active period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Total precip on the GEFS. Pretty good signal for an active period.How much of that is rain before the 8th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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