Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Overall it's a promising EPS run. Moving towards the GEFS with the -NAO and also looks stronger with the -EPO. Faster progression towards lower heights in the east d10-15 which is good because I'm pretty paranoid that the Pac is going to take a dump all over our weenies. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 What's another week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's another week Yep lol. If things actually get right we may have 2 to 3 weeks before time runs out . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Overall it's a promising EPS run. Moving towards the GEFS with the -NAO and also looks stronger with the -EPO. Faster progression towards lower heights in the east d10-15 which is good because I'm pretty paranoid that the Pac is going to take a dump all over our weenies. The better blocking is what I have been waiting for. Finally moving more towards the GEFS with that idea. If the Pac is going to continue eff things up some, we need a legit block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's another week Honestly, absolutely nothing to me. 2 weeks wouldn't matter either. We've fought through a pretty craptastic winter pattern since the very beginning and managed to come up with respectable totals. Heck, our area is KILLING it consider how few chances and how brief good setups have been. I'm here to the end. If we go on an epic heater then awesome. If we struggle our way to a couple more events then fine too. Being picky at this point is idiotic. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is picking up on a discrete threat in the the 10th-12th window. Even the control has it but it's a hair too far north. This is the first time I've seen ensemble support for a specific period. Looks like a nice coastal from what I can tell. ETA: after looking deeper it's not as much a coastal as some sort of overrunning wave running into CAD. Fits what the GEFS has been doing and the only thing worth watching. Next week is going to have some legit warmth for a few days. Unless we are wet/cloudy I'm expecting 1 or more days in the 60s between Mon-Thurs. NICE move on the EPS today wrt blocking also. No can kicking and more importantly a significant improvement in the anomalies in the NAO domain. Obviously more agreement with blocking on today's run. Not shockingly that made it a slight bit colder as well with a little less trough hanging back in the southwest. I suspect that IF the blocking turns out to be right we will see that trend continue across guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 My opinion about models is that this double-ridge signal is more of a extrapolation of recent trends, and will probably change as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Not gonna lie, I actually like seeing 2-3 days of warm temps. Been itching to go cast a line in some local water. Can’t even winter fish because lakes are iced over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 This is workable...but its also 48 hours away from a really good look as the trough out west undercuts into the east. No where else for it to go with that blocking. That is the key, keep watching the trend with the blocking...take that away and the rest of that pattern suddenly becomes crap and we end up with a HUGE SE ridge. Get a true NAO block and the trough out west will have to cut under and something will end up stuck under the block as a 50/50 and suddenly we have systems coming at us from the west with confluence and its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just to clear something up... I know there are ways to get snow without a -NAO. I am not saying we need a -NAO to get snow. But I am saying that with the current pattern in the pacific we need an NAO block to have a good chance at snow. Most of the ways we get snow without a -NAO don't involve a west centered EPO ridge. That is going to place the trough axis too far to our west without blocking. Now if the PAC were to change...that could change the equation, true. But I find that the less likely of the options and that is why I am so keyed in on the NAO blocking. With our luck we will get both to change and a huge PNA ridge with a massive NAO block and it will be the coldest dryest Feb 15 to March 10 ever and we will watch Atlanta get 3 feet of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is workable...but its also 48 hours away from a really good look as the trough out west undercuts into the east. No where else for it to go with that blocking. That is the key, keep watching the trend with the blocking...take that away and the rest of that pattern suddenly becomes crap and we end up with a HUGE SE ridge. Get a true NAO block and the trough out west will have to cut under and something will end up stuck under the block as a 50/50 and suddenly we have systems coming at us from the west with confluence and its game on. That is the panel I was posting about. Very encouraging to see the EPS finally going big with the NA blocking. With the PAC likely to continue to be somewhat of a thorn in the side of our epic pattern, need the -NAO to be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just to clear something up... I know there are ways to get snow without a -NAO. I am not saying we need a -NAO to get snow. But I am saying that with the current pattern in the pacific we need an NAO block to have a good chance at snow. Most of the ways we get snow without a -NAO don't involve a west centered EPO ridge. That is going to place the trough axis too far to our west without blocking. Now if the PAC were to change...that could change the equation, true. But I find that the less likely of the options and that is why I am so keyed in on the NAO blocking. The NAO has been pretty negative this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just to clear something up... I know there are ways to get snow without a -NAO. I am not saying we need a -NAO to get snow. But I am saying that with the current pattern in the pacific we need an NAO block to have a good chance at snow. Most of the ways we get snow without a -NAO don't involve a west centered EPO ridge. That is going to place the trough axis too far to our west without blocking. Now if the PAC were to change...that could change the equation, true. But I find that the less likely of the options and that is why I am so keyed in on the NAO blocking. Close to 20 members get meaningful snow into the region between the 10th and 12th. Looking at the mean h5 and mslp panels it looks like an uncomplicated (famous last words) way of getting something. Transient 50/50 locks in the cold long enough for something to run into it. I'm sure some of the hits are mixed events which is totally fine. I just want to track something and overrunning into CAD is a staple that happens in the majority of winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is the panel I was posting about. Very encouraging to see the EPS finally going big with the NA blocking. With the PAC likely to continue to be somewhat of a thorn in the side of our epic pattern, need the -NAO to be the real deal. I am not so sure if we get a west based block that the pacific really is a problem. I went digging and found the analog I was thinking of. This is kind of what we are shooting for here imo. This period produced 3 snowfalls in our region, one minor, one moderate, and one warning to HECS level depending on elevation. Of course the period was in March so get this displaced a couple weeks earlier and results would be better imo. But this is kind of the inevitable end progression of that EPS look day 15 imo. No 2 years are the same but look at the EPO ridge location and PNA. This is what that pattern turns into if you get a west based NAO block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah, that's a 3 to 4 SD -NAO, I'm not sure that is possible unless there is a major pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is workable...but its also 48 hours away from a really good look as the trough out west undercuts into the east. No where else for it to go with that blocking. That is the key, keep watching the trend with the blocking...take that away and the rest of that pattern suddenly becomes crap and we end up with a HUGE SE ridge. Get a true NAO block and the trough out west will have to cut under and something will end up stuck under the block as a 50/50 and suddenly we have systems coming at us from the west with confluence and its game on. So...when do you guys think we will finally know whether the -NAO will show up for real? Don't tell me won't know till the day it shows up, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Is there a reason we are believing the nao this time. Is it because it got transferred from the weeklies to eps and gefs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Is there a reason we are believing the nao this time. Is it because it got transferred from the weeklies to eps and gefs lol. It's only ridging over non-land regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there a reason we are believing the nao this time. Is it because it got transferred from the weeklies to eps and gefs lol. My question exactly! I mean...how do we know this ain't gonna be another chapter of "The Model who cried Neg Nao"?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 EPS is picking up on a discrete threat in the the 10th-12th window. Even the control has it but it's a hair too far north. This is the first time I've seen ensemble support for a specific period. Looks like a nice coastal from what I can tell. ETA: after looking deeper it's not as much a coastal as some sort of overrunning wave running into CAD. Fits what the GEFS has been doing and the only thing worth watching. Next week is going to have some legit warmth for a few days. Unless we are wet/cloudy I'm expecting 1 or more days in the 60s between Mon-Thurs. The control also had a 40 inch blizzard starting tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah, that's a 3 to 4 SD -NAO, I'm not sure that is possible unless there is a major pattern change. So the pattern can’t change unless it changes? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there a reason we are believing the nao this time. Is it because it got transferred from the weeklies to eps and gefs lol. Who said they believe it? This is about hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Who said they believe it? This is about hope. Maybe it's the analogs....were due...the climate models all showed this in February back in the fall....mjo...cause hm messed up his last nao prediction and it wont happen twice in a row..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 It's only ridging over non-land regions. Space or the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: My question exactly! I mean...how do we know this ain't gonna be another chapter of "The Model who cried Neg Nao"?... It's already building. I've said this like 100 times. We're not talking about flipping from a +NAO into a fantasy -NAO in 15 days. Heights are building over the next 5 days (that's a lock) and are forecast to continue by all global ensembles. That is night and day different from sitting on our hands with a big blue ball over greenland and praying 3-4 week guidance can really see past its nose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So the pattern can’t change unless it changes? Thanks That's my line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's already building. I've said this like 100 times. We're not talking about flipping from a +NAO into a fantasy -NAO in 15 days. Heights are building over the next 5 days (that's a lock) and are forecast to continue by all global ensembles. That is night and day different from sitting on our hands with a big blue ball over greenland and praying 3-4 week guidance can really see past its nose. I gotcha (apologies for not deducting that part from your previous posts. PSU seemed uncertain it was gonna be there, hence my confusion, lol). Glad the process is already started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not so sure if we get a west based block that the pacific really is a problem. I went digging and found the analog I was thinking of. This is kind of what we are shooting for here imo. This period produced 3 snowfalls in our region, one minor, one moderate, and one warning to HECS level depending on elevation. Of course the period was in March so get this displaced a couple weeks earlier and results would be better imo. But this is kind of the inevitable end progression of that EPS look day 15 imo. No 2 years are the same but look at the EPO ridge location and PNA. This is what that pattern turns into if you get a west based NAO block. If we get a west based block we should be able to mitigate the issues with the Pacific- which are not likely to disappear completely at this point. That's what I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Who said they believe it? This is about hope. Maybe it's the analogs....were due...the climate models all showed this in February back in the fall....mjo...cause hm messed up his last nao prediction and it wont happen twice in a row..... 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's already building. I've said this like 100 times. We're not talking about flipping from a +NAO into a fantasy -NAO in 15 days. Heights are building over the next 5 days (that's a lock) and are forecast to continue by all global ensembles. That is night and day different from sitting on our hands with a big blue ball over greenland and praying 3-4 week guidance can really see past its nose. I'm in!!! Its not like we are seeing torch indicators! ( which almost always verify )I couldn't be more in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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