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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yeah but that will be the next thing that causes an issue.

Could be right. My total wag is the high ends up weaker and less suppressive than currently modeled. Dec was on the heels of extended cold. This one is on the front side of cold coming. This wouldnt solve a shortwave on the ropes problem but would make it easier to get at least some snow out of the deal.

Getting blanked would the only outcome that would get on my nerves. My expectations are def in check and the future looks bright. I just want to see snow falling again. It's getting ridiculous now....

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From wes to me....wes always delivers bad news


Jay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

From wes to me....wes always delivers bad news


Jay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill.

You didn’t think it would be that easy.  Best to lower expectations right now.  Dusting, dusting, dusting.  Tell yourself you like cold powder in small quantities.  

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Before people analyze the surface and say it's a good run (it is), take a minute to absorb the 5 run upper level trend here... The direction is clear and it's very euroish

T8pnrzT.gif

You can see the issues clearer with that graphic. Energy is left back in the Southwest and and energy from the NS didn’t phase. 

But the bright side is this is a workable look and if we can keep the southern stream a little more consolidated as game time approaches then there’s enough here to make this work 2-5in.

I wouldn’t be surprised if 0z euro consolidates the SW a little earlier over Texas and finds a middle ground with the GFS. Say 2-4in event for much of the sub forum. I’d be happy 

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13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

As long as there isn’t another wall of pressure there, it should shift north.  

I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff.

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Just now, Rvarookie said:

I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave dangling from the cliff.

I bet it verifies further north than 12/10.  Just a hunch.  

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1 minute ago, Rvarookie said:

I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff.

Hey weenie, you realize how far out this is correct?

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3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff.

Tell me more about the "Cyclical Nature".. I want to hear all about it.

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image.thumb.png.107a9aa697c2442b2387e9c673a420d5.png

 

I know it is just the surface and as Bob pointed out H5 is leaving energy in SW.. but there is a lot to like here.  Look at the precip field/ area of coverage.  1040+ high pressure.  Rain snow line way down in Southern VA.  This is what it looks like when get high ratio storms.  

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