BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: It will be in Jacksonville by 6z. Enjoy the next 2 runs Troubling ticks south but man that would be sweet event. It’s reminding me of the last snow event when it stopped at my house north to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Disappointment for NE Soon to be MA lol. lol you will take the 4-8/6-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Its Monday 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Trends yoda. Trends. Can't disagree. GFS is one extra shear away from a non event. ETA: and by non event I mean a light sheared out mess but still snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 No one panic when the GEFS cuts back on precip and shows more southern sliders....lol...if you do...there's a place for that right?? Weenie rule 1,046....GEFS always follows the op.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Disappointment for NE Soon to be MA lol. This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 lol you will take the 4-8/6-10I cant take what gfs gives me 138 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Can't disagree. GFS is one extra shear away from a non event. Yep...you can just see it now! (and wouldn't the confluence be coming from the exact same spot as last month? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England. Thief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England.God help us if we miss another southern slider by being too north 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Definite step away from storm.. We want some consistency in placement! I am out - until 0z! No more trends south.. This would be a great run if we were under 72 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Jeez it's cold after that run. Temps in the single digits to low teens for most of the subforum after the snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England. God help us if we miss another southern slider by being too north widespread panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I thought the "not sampled well" was a joke weenies told on here? Its stated pretty clearly in the afternoon LWX AFD... Quote For the weekend, global models continue to support the potential for a winter storm to impact the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts. The latest run of the GFS continues to be the most supportive of the winter storms threat for our area, with the Canadian jumping on board with the 12z run as well. However, some models suggest a more suppressed system, keeping things to our south. One constant amongst guidance is the presence of a strong area of surface high pressure over southern Quebec/Ontario, which should provide plenty of cold air to the region. The real question, as always, is where the surface low will track as it moves across the southeast. With a large number of scenarios still being shown amongst guidance, it is too early to be sure of anything at this point. The 2 primary pieces of upper-level energy in question have yet to reach North America, and as a result, are likely not being sampled very well in the models just yet. As these features move closer, things should start to come into better agreement. For now, this is just something to monitor, so stay tuned for further updates in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England. God help us if we miss another southern slider by being too north But you already told your loyal readers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Before people analyze the surface and say it's a good run (it is), take a minute to absorb the 5 run upper level trend here... The direction is clear and it's very euroish 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thief I love the run verbatim. Not so sure the final outcome will bear much resemblance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, yoda said: lol you will take the 4-8/6-10 I cant take what gfs gives me 138 hours out But you are awful quick to take/believe rain when it's 360 hrs out. Just flipping through the 500's on the last couple of days of runs. All over the place with the NS. Until that gets nailed down somewhat I wouldn't be counting my snow/or lack of just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep...you can just see it now! (and wouldn't the confluence be coming from the exact same spot as last month? Lol) It's not the confluence that's the problem. The shortwave keeps looking weaker and more sheared. Very different situation compared to last month even though the results look similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Fv3 looks good for MD (especially the northern crew). NPZ is going to hate the run though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't disagree. GFS is one extra shear away from a non event. ETA: and by non event I mean a light sheared out mess but still snow In which case not too many would get a hit at all, right? And I take it this time...success or failure could come down to the strength of the southern wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 @Bob Chill your analysis is spot on but I'm not sure given the progressive flow and multiple moving parts here we are close enough to take too much from one op run. Icon trended better. Fv3 and gfs swapped places. That's about all so far. But yes the gfs at h5 was a bad step toward the euro. But there were gefs members like that so it could be noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FV3 looks good for the C.A.P.E across the bay crew but it does change over to rain for about 9 hours or so. But that's after it snows for 12 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill your analysis is spot on but I'm not sure given the progressive flow and multiple moving parts here we are close enough to take too much from one op run. Icon trended better. Fv3 and gfs swapped places. That's about all so far. But yes the gfs at h5 was a bad step toward the euro. But there were gefs members like that so it could be noise. I didn't like the EPS. Universal agreement of a weak event. So the EPS strongly agrees with the op. Could be the hive mentality at work and suddenly shift (hopefully) or it just might really be a weak sheared out mess in the end. We'll know soon enough... I did not like the EPS run at all though. Not a single amped up strong storm at all in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 We've come a long way in just the last 3 days , tracking a medium range threat and a good long range look. All major models show atleast some snow with some showing a big hit. Feels alot better than a week ago lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Count me in for even some light snow if it becomes a sheared out mess. However, the trend this year hasn’t been sheared out SS vorts so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FV3 is a NE special. Cities here don’t do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Count me in for even some light snow if it becomes a sheared out mess. However, the trend this year hasn’t been sheared out SS vorts so there’s that. I do think we're close to turning the corner and locking in a light event at least. All models give us snow and there's some consistency. We all have our own preferences. I'd prefer 2" of cold powder that instantly sticks to everything versus 4" of wet slop that doesnt stick on the streets. Cold powder remimds me of my CO years and i really like remembering them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I do think we're close to turning the corner and locking in a light event at least. All models give us snow and there's some consistency. We all have our own preferences. I'd prefer 2" of cold powder that instantly sticks to everything versus 4" of wet slop that doesnt stick on the streets. Cold powder remimds me of my CO years and i really like remembering them. Absolutely. To go from where we were less than a week ago to this should make everyone here happy, especially if we do see some light snow out of this. And look at the LR...so many chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Absolutely. To go from where we were less than a week ago to this should make everyone here happy, especially if we do see some light snow out of this. And look at the LR...so many chances. Yep, and for the record I'll be fine with a 1-2" event if that's what it ends up being. Well... happy as long as my yard gets 2" and everyone else gets 1" (including my neighbors) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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