jackb979 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 By the way-did we ever gauge which models did the best in figuring out the December storm compared to what actually happened? Only one storm but could be a good barometer for this weekend potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Has 1-2 inches for most of the area. A little more in NW VA. Looks a little better than the Euro. But similar. A couple of inches of cold powder will do this subforum a world of good though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Buddy1987 said: You feel like this is a flaw with the models at this range or is it a bonafide concern with the storm? I feel like the Euro is notorious for this but obviously if most models start showing it it’s not good. For me at this point any type of snowfall is a win for many, especially more so with the potential in the upcoming pattern. I honestly wouldn’t be betting against a stronger SW in the SS which has been the case all winter but it does seem models have been trending to the Euro with a weaker, strung out SW. Can’t be ignored at this point. But its still in the MR and changes should be expected. I just want to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A week ago some were cancelling winter. I’ll take my 1-3” and like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 51 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Sounds like their source was grasping at straws, unless EMC has no testing/QA process for data format changes. My guess is most if not all resources are/were being used to get the Fv3 to production by 1/15, with little emphasis updating the GFS regardless of the shutdown FWIW, on the politics board ohleary said: "This is hogwash. Not the part about the drop in performance, but it was in no way tied to data ingest. And it wasn't technically labeled a "dropout" as purported here. Maybe she was interviewed that short time period when it was assumed to be tied to data ingest." Don't ask why this was being discussed on the politics board. We are kind of insane. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The analysis is comical. It is great. It sucks. Maybe we should let the models play out first before commenting on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Icon's h5 looks pretty crappy by the time precip arrives.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I swear i cant remember a single time that the western ridge closed off AND sucked half a shortwave with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: I really don’t like this run of the ICON looking closer. Stronger confluence + weaker/strung out SW. It's the beginning of the end. We've seen this act too many times before. Once guidance starts heading towards the euro it rarely reverses for the better. Just my $.02 but anything before Jan 20 is bonus stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I swear i cant remember a single time that the western ridge closed off AND sucked half a shortwave with it Same here...such a weird look but more models are jumping on that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, jackb979 said: By the way-did we ever gauge which models did the best in figuring out the December storm compared to what actually happened? Only one storm but could be a good barometer for this weekend potential cae did a nice writeup about a week ago. CMC did best overall although it didn't nail the tight gradient on the northern edge (HRDPS did in the short range). FV3 was better than GFS and Euro/UKMET/ICON were about on par with FV3 for this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: The analysis is comical. It is great. It sucks. Maybe we should let the models play out first before commenting on them. Yeah I am done commenting on play by play. The vort looked good out in the SW but then just gets smashed. And what happened to the northern stream energy from earlier runs? There is really no energy dropping in on this run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I swear i cant remember a single time that the western ridge closed off AND sucked half a shortwave with it In 2019, there is always a new way to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Same here...such a weird look but more models are jumping on that look. It's prob done it many times when it was rain and i didnt pay a lick of attention to it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yeah I am done commenting on play by play. The vort looked good out in the SW but then just gets smashed. And what happened to the northern stream energy from earlier runs? There is really no energy dropping in on this run at all. That was my thing as well thus why I was excited earlier in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah I am done commenting on play by play. The vort looked good out in the SW but then just gets smashed. And what happened to the northern stream energy from earlier runs? There is really no energy dropping in on this run at all. Don’t worry. The GooFuS will keep us in the game...until we lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's prob done it many times when it was rain and i didnt pay a lick of attention to it. Lol True or the encyclopedias here could probably recite an H5 from 1842 that did this too and screwed DC from 3-5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS also holding back. Still will get snow but it will be a step down from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS closes off the ridge at 108. And trends more to holding energy back like the Euro. ETA: ninja’d by LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Check out 108 and the piece of energy n of the GL trying to work SSW and teasing a phase lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Check out 108 and the piece of energy n of the GL trying to work SSW and teasing a phase lol. Haha just advanced ahead. NS saves the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The GFS has a much more vigorous wave because the western ridge isnt closed off as it ejects. It is a great run for us. Snowing hard out here at 9Z Sunday. Nice hit for RIC pretty much all day Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still got a long way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 132..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Once again I wish people would just let the models run first. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS has a much more vigorous wave because the western ridge isnt closed off as it ejects. It is a great run for us. Snowing hard out here at 9Z Sunday. Good track with the ss low as well. Not as far north and west. Mod-heavy snow for southern and central va at 126. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: Once again I wish people would just let the models run first. PLEASE. My goodness, people! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS has a much more vigorous wave because the western ridge isnt closed off as it ejects. It is a great run for us. Snowing hard out here at 9Z Sunday. Such an interesting evolution. Can you explain what hours you’re looking at re: ridge doesn’t close while the SW ejects? Ejects before 108 as the ridge starts to close off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Please let the GFS be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 NS Sw shifts to the backside of the trough to help bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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