Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. That's about as surprising as saying its hot in July. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. Hedging low is usually a good idea when it comes to snow inside the snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. Hedging against snow is always a safe bet in DC. and most often you would win that bet. But not always. This for some reason that bet doesn’t seem like a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes posted on facebook that CWG is going to hedge low on their first snowfall map because the dry air and prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. 1-3 or 2-4 is a fine low hedge to me https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/09/light-moderate-snowfall-is-likely-this-weekend/?fbclid=IwAR28Um7bZsY10RQMOYLZYiV-SJo2fQOTrTbOIVmMYMNF-35wujzcDbo6SuY&utm_term=.eb8970775287 Looks like they went 2-4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I mean I'm pretty good with .5-1".. snow TV would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: prolonged event of light snow isnt a good sign for snow in the immediate DC area. Sounds about right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Do we trust the FV3-GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. eta: H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of the city by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. What does QPF look like between Richmond and DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of the city by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. NW of RIC correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 qpf output for fv3 didn't seem too great, though better than cmc/gfs. 12z canadian matches up with 18z gfs. we could use a bit of a north shift amongst those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of the city by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. That’s probably pretty good news that should roll right into 0z tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Cobb data from the 18Z GFS is some of the craziest I have ever seen. I cant remember a time with more hourly snow obs and very little accumulation on it. DCA has snow for 18 hours through Sunday evening and ends up with 1.4 inches TOTAL! All while the temp never goes above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 If it can't accumulate in January with temps at 27...we in trouble 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. eta: H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt. Euro’s got this one handled from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: What does QPF look like between Richmond and DC? Pretty uniform 0.2" along 95 from south of EZF up to Baltimore. Higher amounts (0.3") just west of 95. 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: NW of RIC correct? Yes. 1 minute ago, 87storms said: qpf output for fv3 didn't seem too great. 12z canadian matches up with 18z gfs. we could use a bit of a north shift amongst those models. Things are aligning for a nice advisory event at this point. A great turnaround from a week ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: If it can't accumulate in January with temps at 27...we in trouble I hope its cloudy when its snowing 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I hope its cloudy when its snowing Cloud angle might screw us 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. eta: H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt. How far north is the. 25" qpf line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC. 5-8” is the purple. 3-5” is the dark blue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC. The purple is the 5-8" and the darker blue is 3-5". Just bad placement of each on the map. They have DC teetering on the 3-5" which is likely around 2-4". so actually not bad at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC. Actually no. The 5-8" is only to label the lavender color. Looks like they put DC on the line between 1-3" and 3-5". Seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pretty uniform 0.2" along 95 from south of EZF up to Baltimore. Higher amounts (0.3") just west of 95. Yes. Things are aligning for a nice advisory event at this point. A great turnaround from a week ago. Temps are easy with this one. Nice to not have to worry about that aspect. And it’s also nice to have the euro on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Who’s to say it won’t be 5-8? Plenty of time for changes good or bad. It’s not like the guidance is unanimous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I know some people hate hearing posts like this but i'm tossing all ops except the euro if it doesn't waver at 0z tonight. Its been the most consistent and appears lasered in. Qpf distribution always moves around a little but the euro is being really stready with the progression. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. eta: H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt. That’s only 12z Sunday, anything from the coastal would be after that you’d think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The purple is the 5-8" and the darker blue is 3-5". Just bad placement of each on the map. They have DC teetering on the 3-5" which is likely around 2-4". so actually not bad at all. I think that map looks pretty good. If the qpf stripe is better aligned for dc area it's a minor adjustment. I'm starting to lean towards 3-6 for the corridor instead of 2-4" but i'd like to see guidance converge. Icon/gfs/cmc are still jumping around too much to feel confident. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I know some people hate hearing posts like this but i'm tossing all ops except the euro if it doesn't waver at 0z tonight. Its been the most consistent and appears lasered in. Qpf distribution always moves around a little but the euro is being really stready with the progression. I bet the whole LWX gets a watch for this. Where we go from that who knows. Warning DC south maybe. Been a while since we have seen a watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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