WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Ukie was decent last night apparently? 1-3”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6z EPS snow map on SV has DC in the 2-4" contour at the end of the run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I thought the individual members of the EPS looked better than 12z. Maybe just optimism but one thing that stood out was the initial low track was further north compared to it being buried on the gulf coast. As Chris mentioned above, very few misses south and the theme this year has been stronger SS storms. I'm not saying the 10"+ likely but advisory level is definitely on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 If we're talking weekend Advisory level, that's fine. It takes almost nothing to get an advisory on a weekday due to traffic concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Even the Euro gets snow into Illinois Indiana and Ohio and moving east. It's dampening somewhat as it moves east but I think that's a good sign to atleast get a light event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: If we're talking weekend Advisory level, that's fine. It takes almost nothing to get an advisory on a weekday due to traffic concerns. Advisory level to me is 2-4 but just my 2 cents. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Advisory level to me is 2-4 but just my 2 cents. Right and advisory goes to 5 I think. High end advisory would be money. Or a dusting either way..beats 50 and partly cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ukie was decent last night apparently? 1-3”? Yes, about 0.2-0.3" QPF for DC/NOVA...less north/more south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yes, about 0.2-0.3" QPF for DC/NOVA...less north/more south. Similar to 12/9/18, though I think a little more expansive to the North and not quite as much in areas that got 3-6" in December. Something like 1-3/2-4" area wide would work well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 We are still far enough out to see this thing shift + or - 100 miles. If guidance holds the next couple days and doesn’t shift south we could still get a North trend inside 72 hours which happened on 12-9. The problem on 12-9 was the models shifted the wrong way from 48-96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Per @tombo82685 on that "other" forum, 6z EPS bumps the 2" line to the Potomac and then east to Wes. Bigger area of 4"+ also along the Blue Ridge. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Cranky and HM with a good back-and-forth on twitter this morning regarding this storm and the season in general. Two relevant bits: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Per @tombo82685 on that "other" forum, 6z EPS bumps the 2" line to the Potomac and then east to Wes. Bigger area of 4"+ also along the Blue Ridge. Any EPS increase at this range calms my bad early December memories. Leesburg has gotten to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Per @tombo82685 on that "other" forum, 6z EPS bumps the 2" line to the Potomac and then east to Wes. Bigger area of 4"+ also along the Blue Ridge. Yea they ticked a bit better for you guys. Seem like they consolidate the southern stream energy better thus making for a stronger low that heads towards KY area. Here is also a loop at h5 of differences between 0z euro and 6z one. Can see better consolidation of energy at base of trough. Also seems like there would be better spacing between that wave and the one by cali to limit it from breaking underneath the ridge to interact with southern s/w. Also, the northern vorts seem to be in a more suppressive orientation than 0z too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Per @tombo82685 on that "other" forum, 6z EPS bumps the 2" line to the Potomac and then east to Wes. Bigger area of 4"+ also along the Blue Ridge. That's good. What we don't want to see is the Euro more supressed run to run with the GFS following. I'll take the nights runs as a draw. GFS and EURO trying to meet in the middle. As long as we don't see the storm just drop off the map over the next 24 hrs (which at this point would be difficult), I think we'll be in the game for something. As I've read and studied, it doesn't look like this look is as suppressive as 12/9 was for our region. Even if come Thursday the heaviest axis of accumulating snow is in central Virginia I think we could easily see a tick north to put us in a high advisory/warning area for the metro areas of DC and Balt. At this point, that is kind of my high bar for this event. Still think there is way too much time and this storm might have one more semi-major change to it given it's 4-5 days out still. That could be for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Thanks @tombo82685! I knew the Euro Op was run at 6z and 18z (with limited durations), but didn't realize they ran a full ensemble as well. Nice to see the improvements on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Thanks @tombo82685! I knew the Euro Op was run at 6z and 18z (with limited durations), but didn't realize they ran a full ensemble as well. Nice to see the improvements on the 6z. yea they run the eps out to hr 144 for off hr runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 perhaps this is our Jan 30,2010 event before the upcoming period of epic blizzards. still feel like this winter has been similar to 09-10 in terms of progression. the Dec 09 blizzzard is equivilant to the Dec 9,2019 historic snow that just missed us....and we had a mid November event that is kind of similar to the Dec 5,2009 event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I have a feeling today’s runs will start to give us a pretty good idea where we’re headed for the weekend. Southern slider I’d put at 25%. Strung out storm that gives us in the 2-4 range at 50% and a coastal hugger that gives us warning level snow and maybe even some mixing at 25%. It’s going to be an interesting 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 we are close to NAM range...it looks like its consolidating more energy at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it. 6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit. Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS. Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure. The Euro and IKON had the same thing on last nights run. Seems we are coming to a bit of an agreement that the NS isnt going to help with this one. We need to hope that the vort is as strong as possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 When is do the Euro and gfs models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: we are close to NAM range...it looks like its consolidating more energy at 84 Half the fun for me is the chase. Love when we get a threat within 96hrs. Nights start off early. Nam at 9pm. Icon at 10. GFS at 10:30. CMC at 11. UKIE at 11:45. Euro at 1am. Don't know why I'm so excited...lol, I guess it's just been a long time since we got a threat within 4 days. Not quite there but getting awfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ukie was decent last night apparently? 1-3”? While I’d be slightly disappointed to see the GFS lose out on this fight, I wouldn’t sniff at 1-3” to start a pattern change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: we are close to NAM range...it looks like its consolidating more energy at 84 It does look like it wants to drop a little bit of NS energy in. That would help a ton. Of course it is the NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Confluence to the NE looks a little less suppressive and the southern s/w looks a little more consolidated through 84 on the ICON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 While I’m a bit frustrated at losing out in Dec, I agree with Ji and others about similarities with ‘09-‘10. Hopefully things will take a turn our way. I’m also pretty confident that we won’t be able to really know what will happen with this system until around Thursday or later. It seems we need the cold air and the northern system tonight to set up and we need the PAC storm to get on land and consolidate before we will know what will happen. Hoping for something more than flurries to bolster confidence around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, mattie g said: While I’d be slightly disappointed to see the GFS lose out on this fight, I wouldn’t sniff at 1-3” to start a pattern change. Rumor is the GFS is highly compromised due to the shutdown therefore I suspect it will be spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 ICON is southern slider. Dusting to DC. SW VA over to Richmond a general 2-4. I don't have H5 out that far yet but it looked more consolidated early on as DC said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now