PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, euro has been stubborn with the weak/sheared solution. I like PSU's logic that all southern waves have carried juice this year. Most wasted with rainfall but the seasonal trend has not been for weak/washed out light QPF events. We're all pretty much beggars at this point in the season so any snow will be good snow. It's been a rough first 5-6 weeks of met winter in these parts (and many parts of the conus). I for one have seen this happen countless times -- Euro holds out the longest on consolidating the energy and many times will show a shredded out mess at these leads. And seasonal trends have some validity when trying to decipher model output in such a situation, so I'll go along with it... until the 12z euro comes out at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GEFS snowfall mean is 6" at DCA through 162 Through 168 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 individs through 168 from 12z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Candian enesmble continues to slowly improve. 11/21 members get at least 1" of snow to my backyard. There are also more big hits in there than there have been in previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Anyone with Ukie? Hearing it was a tick better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I for one have seen this happen countless times -- Euro holds out the longest on consolidating the energy and many times will show a shredded out mess at these leads. And seasonal trends have some validity when trying to decipher model output in such a situation, so I'll go along with it... until the 12z euro comes out at least I've actually seen the opposite in the mid range. Euro will show an amped up solution and then proceed to trim it back as the leads shorten. Not saying that's the case this time but there have been some infamous euro midrange crush jobs that disintegrated before the short range. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I've actually seen the opposite in the mid range. Euro will show an amped up solution and then proceed to trim it back as the leads shorten. Not saying that's the case this time but there have been some infamous euro midrange crush jobs that disintegrated before the short range. Only when we are the recipients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Has the ukie been posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've actually seen the opposite in the mid range. Euro will show an amped up solution and then proceed to trim it back as the leads shorten. Not saying that's the case this time but there have been some infamous euro midrange crush jobs that disintegrated before the short range. Only when we are the recipients GEFS down to just 4 members not putting down at least 2" in DC. Best and most agreed on run yet. The question is... do you trust the GFS twins and their 21 offspring? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Shave maybe .05 off but here is the total from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've actually seen the opposite in the mid range. Euro will show an amped up solution and then proceed to trim it back as the leads shorten. Not saying that's the case this time but there have been some infamous euro midrange crush jobs that disintegrated before the short range. I can remember one of those last year. Can't remember the exact date but GFS was Dr. No and Euro kept spitting out clown maps up till like 48 hrs prior. Then it finally came in line with GFS and I think we ended up with a mix bag if I remember correctly. To my point though... I also remember last year or the year before that all the models were on board and euro took its sweet ole time and everyone was freaking out till like, 24 hours before the event till FINALLY the euro came around almost verbatim to the GFS. So it goes both ways. Not sure which way it's skewed towards though. Your impression (skew) is probably the right one though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Ukie close-up. About the same as 00z, but a bit better around Roanoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sometimes I think the individual members are more illustrative of where we stand than the mean. This is one of those times. A lot of very solid hits in there. We'll see if it holds. My thoughts are pretty much unchanged from a few days ago. This is the best shot at a moderate event yet, especially down there. I really want to see the Euro and EPS get on board though. E4 would debunk all the "snow hole-ist" fanatics out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Shave maybe .05 off but here is the total from 12z.Ouch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, cae said: Ukie close-up. About the same as 00z, but a bit better around Roanoke. Southern VA/Northern NC jackpot again? Either someone down there has been doing their snow dance or the snow gods are pissed at Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: Ouch . That’s right where we want it at a 5 day lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sometimes I think the individual members are more illustrative of where we stand than the mean. This is one of those times. A lot of very solid hits in there. We'll see if it holds. My thoughts are pretty much unchanged from a few days ago. This is the best shot at a moderate event yet, especially down there. I really want to see the Euro and EPS get on board though. Yup. Looks like a few big hits skewing the mean. Many outright busts in there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: Ouch . UKIE hasn't really been enthused on this threat to be honest at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Looks like a few big hits skewing the mean. Many outright busts in there. Huh? 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS down to just 4 members not putting down at least 2" in DC. Best and most agreed on run yet. The question is... do you trust the GFS twins and their 21 offspring? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z euro small change @72hr with ridge out west not quite as compressed. Hope it translates downstream. Praise the king come on baby ETA: Never mind toggled the wrong run. Ignore my stupidity above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Looks like a few big hits skewing the mean. Many outright busts in there. bit early to start drinking but i don't judge 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Looks like a few big hits skewing the mean. Many outright busts in there. Have you looked at the previous GEFS runs? This was the best run yet irt agreement so the trend is towards an unbust 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Southern VA/Northern NC jackpot again? Either someone down there has been doing their snow dance or the snow gods are pissed at Ji Looks like a region wide 1-3/2-4" event. Ill take that any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Have you looked at the previous GEFS runs? This was the best run yet irt agreement so the trend is towards an unbust Yes, I checked the 00z / 06z...don't really see anything worth celebrating yet. If we're seeing this for a few more runs then sure, but we've had this time and time again where folks get suckered off one fluke run of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Euro SS SW looks better through 84. Less energy hanging back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes, I checked the 00z / 06z...don't really see anything worth celebrating yet. If we're seeing this for a few more runs then sure, but we've had this time and time again where folks get suckered off one fluke run of the GFS. I don't think anyone is getting sucked in on the GEFS. Not with the euro/ukie showing weak/sheared mess still. But it's posting in bad faith to say the 12z GEFS run isn't the best one yet. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Time for the daily 1:15 to 1:40 beating. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't think anyone is getting sucked in on the GEFS. Not with the euro/ukie showing weak/sheared mess still. But it's posting in bad faith to say the 12z GEFS run isn't the best one yet. It's Eskimo Joe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 96 has a larger precip field than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Well, at 96 hours, heights are higher in the east vs 0z so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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