Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, mappy said: there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. Wouldnt call it a trend on any model but they are clearly coming to a concensus/ middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 H5 pattern is not evolving into one that is favorable for a considerable east coast storm as portrayed over the past couple days. Could it change...yes...will it change back? Not likely. It’s been trending like this all year for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, mattie g said: While I’d be slightly disappointed to see the GFS lose out on this fight, I wouldn’t sniff at 1-3” to start a pattern change. Those who adopt this type of thinking should start preparing themselves to understand that a pattern change can mean everything for snow or absolutely NOTHING for snow. Plenty of good patterns produce ZILCH in our area. Fact of life in the mid-atlantic We need to score when we can score and right now is one of those opportunities... for all we know we could all get goose egged for 3 weeks after our "pattern change". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. I disagree. FV3 and GFS all showed a warning event last night. They both trended directly to the Euro over the last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Yeah I'm no longer expecting more than maybe 2-3". But that's fine. We have a great pattern coming up with many more opportunities on the way. Most normal winters (including the better ones) don't have a MECS right off the bat after a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, mappy said: there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. Yep...Shouldn't really come as a surprise given this setup! Timing that ns vort? No way the models are gonna nail that down yet. (Perhaps tomorrow is a better day to start looking for trends...and even that might be too soon, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Fv3 has a couple inches in the ground area wide through hour 113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: H5 pattern is not evolving into one that is favorable for a considerable east coast storm as portrayed over the past couple days. Could it change...yes...will it change back? Not likely. It’s been trending like this all year for us. A light snow event is certainly on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: FV3 is weaker and more strung out. Waiting on the Canadian but most other guidance now agrees on a light advisory event at best. I will never ever understand how days in advanced people can be so sure of the outcome based on a model run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Negnao said: Fv3 has a couple inches in the ground area wide through hour 113 It has been the most amped over the last 48 hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: H5 pattern is not evolving into one that is favorable for a considerable east coast storm as portrayed over the past couple days. Could it change...yes...will it change back? Not likely. It’s been trending like this all year for us. But I don’t think many expected a significant storm. The concern was that this would end up a washed-out mess, but that’s not necessarily looking the likeliest of cases now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: A light snow event is certainly on the table. And so is a whiff to the south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: But I don’t think many expected a significant storm. The concern was that this would end up a washed-out mess, but that’s not necessarily looking the likeliest of cases now. Exactly. GFS eye candy is nice but we'd be idiots to ignore the euro's washed out/weak progression. FV3 is a widespread 3-6" deal. That's probably a high end solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: But I don’t think many expected a significant storm. The concern was that this would end up a washed-out mess, but that’s not necessarily looking the likeliest of cases now. Certainly were yesterday with the digital fantasies from the GFS/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Fv3 has a couple inches in the ground area wide through hour 113 You sure that’s 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I will never ever understand how days in advanced people can be so sure of the outcome based on a model run. I have no clue what the final outcome. Just saying what the consensus is coming around to right now. We still have a chance for major changes. Now we just have a new consensus to work out from. Remember when 12/9 went to the NC/VA border? How'd that end up for areas north of Richmond? Still a ton of time. At this point though, the models are leaning away from a more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: I have no clue what the final outcome. Just saying what the consensus is coming around to right now. We still have a chance for major changes. Now we just have a new consensus to work out from. Remember when 12/9 went to the NC/VA border? How'd that end up for areas north of Richmond? Still a ton of time. At this point though, a more amped solution is not the consensus. Pretty good if you were in S MD, C VA, CHO, EZF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, mattie g said: You sure that’s 12z? I see 6z on TT... not 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I have no clue what the final outcome. Just saying what the consensus is coming around to right now. We still have a chance for major changes. Now we just have a new consensus to work out from. Remember when 12/9 went to the NC/VA border? How'd that end up for areas north of Richmond? Still a ton of time. At this point though, a more amped solution is not the consensus. this sounds very definitive: Quote but most other guidance now agrees on a light advisory event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: And so is a whiff to the south. Yes, but even the strung out messes get us light snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: H5 pattern is not evolving into one that is favorable for a considerable east coast storm as portrayed over the past couple days. Could it change...yes...will it change back? Not likely. It’s been trending like this all year for us. agreed. i don't recall too many big storm setups with that type of look, but light/moderate seems doable. might need the northeast squasher to be further north/west to allow more overrunning out ahead of this system, so we don't end up with a virga fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, mappy said: this sounds very definitive: Agree. Terrible wording. Sorry about that. A better wording would have been, "The models seem to be coming around to a less amped solution that would favor more of an advisory level event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: You sure that’s 12z? Quite sure. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190108 12 UTC¶m=snodpth_chng&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 click bait.. on MSN "Up to 9 inches of snow for DC this weekend" https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/up-to-9-snow-possible-in-dc-and-more-may-be-on-the-way/ar-BBRYj9T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yes, but even the strung out messes get us light snow though. You are hopeful that will continue to be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, PCT_ATC said: click bait.. on MSN "Up to 9 inches of snow for DC this weekend" https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/up-to-9-snow-possible-in-dc-and-more-may-be-on-the-way/ar-BBRYj9T oy vay, but would be nice if they're right. my jeep is hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Canadian appears to be a warning event...it’s playing catch-up it seems to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I’m looking at the big picture over a period of several days worth of runs. It’s trending away from a more consolidated coastal storm to one that gets suppressed more south and less impactful. H5 pattern looks different and NS more suppressive, faster flow and shearing aloft in the vort. Yea, its hard to argue that. But I have see the globals do the dance before. Timing in the southwest is crucial/trailing wave our our SW's heels/confluence up north that will change model run to model run. I think we're in that weird window of 4 days out where the players on the field aren't quite in focus jus yet, and we'll see a true trend emerge in the next 3-4 model cycles. 12z GFS was case and point.. it has wavered 3 runs in a row with the how dynamic the SW gets and the confluence up top. Lots to be ironed out but my bar is 2-3" here in Arlington. Count that a win in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, mappy said: there is no trend. the models are jumping all over, both in H5 and surface. This is accurate. Truth be told (technically speaking) GFS wise there is no trend. If you were to see a trend it would actually be slight improvements in EPS QPF in past 36 hours. Very slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 My thinking is somewhere there will stripe with a 3 to 5" - mountains will squeeze a bit more - In general though we will want that stripe north of where it has been heading! We also want the system a bit stronger. I do not think we are thinking much more than this. Outside the 3 to 5" stripe will be a 1 to 3" area.. and then the fringes of course (which we all hope is not in our back yards) I think anything more is wishful thinking.. even this may be wishful thinking! Less is of course possible with the squash factors in place and the strung out look! So we fine tune and hope for a north/stronger trend.. but no one should get too excited or upset. Things are better than they have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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