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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And I'm assuming that's going to screw everything up for us in February. 

This entire winter thus far has not followed the typical narrative and I don't think it ever will. It's been the most frustrating winter I've ever experienced.

Right now I think there's a 30% chance that November's event won't be topped. I give a 10% chance that we don't see more than an inch of snow for the rest of the season.

You guys are assuming a back loaded El Nino was a given.

 

Looking at a list of historical El Ninos in February that someone posted a couple of weeks back, perhaps being in uncharted territory is a good thing.

 

El Nino February was/is no sure bet, historically speaking

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Doesn’t sound very promising for those that are rooting for a blockbuster winter 

That ship has sailed.  The question is whether we can get a favorable enough pattern to allow for some decent events.  

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20 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Doesn’t sound very promising for those that are rooting for a blockbuster winter 

I wouldn’t go that far since it only takes one with snowstorms just like hurricanes. We have had a number of winters where 1 storm saved the whole winter. We just need to get some improvement from the Pacific Jet and finally see the MJO decay. Perhaps, at some point in February we can get a more traditional STJ pattern and see the PAC jet weaken. This could happen if the MJO decays and allows a more typical El Niño forcing to become eastablished near the Date Line. 

Root for this pattern to emerge in February

B53112EA-8916-44EA-95AA-CEE32CEAADAE.png.eac2382b6bab4a2affe0d2f09db12fb5.png

6333DE75-F371-4D54-9173-D1F2BCD80F85.png.33871116ada83d05faef180ca613fd59.png

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn’t go that far since it only takes one with snowstorms just like hurricanes. We have had a number of winters where 1 storm saved the whole winter. We just need to get some improvement from the Pacific Jet and finally see the MJO decay. Perhaps, at some point in February we can get a more traditional STJ pattern and see the PAC jet weaken. This could happen if the MJO decays and allows a more typical El Niño forcing to become eastablished near the Date Line. 

Root for this pattern to emerge in February

B53112EA-8916-44EA-95AA-CEE32CEAADAE.png.eac2382b6bab4a2affe0d2f09db12fb5.png

6333DE75-F371-4D54-9173-D1F2BCD80F85.png.33871116ada83d05faef180ca613fd59.png

Nice post. I can't see the chi200 EPS version, but the GEFS seems to be heading in that direction. It looks like it might be trying to set up a proper Aleutian low at the end as well. Hopefully that's the right idea. I also find it interesting that NOAA never declared this an official el nino. They still have it as enso neutral. So maybe we should be thinking of this year more as a warm neutral?

QvWDVaa.jpg

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn’t go that far since it only takes one with snowstorms just like hurricanes. We have had a number of winters where 1 storm saved the whole winter. We just need to get some improvement from the Pacific Jet and finally see the MJO decay. Perhaps, at some point in February we can get a more traditional STJ pattern and see the PAC jet weaken. This could happen if the MJO decays and allows a more typical El Niño forcing to become eastablished near the Date Line. 

Root for this pattern to emerge in February

B53112EA-8916-44EA-95AA-CEE32CEAADAE.png.eac2382b6bab4a2affe0d2f09db12fb5.png

6333DE75-F371-4D54-9173-D1F2BCD80F85.png.33871116ada83d05faef180ca613fd59.png

Great post as always!   I appreciate the explanation.  

We just never know what will happen, despite the pattern we may or may not be in.  

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22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Nice post. I can't see the chi200 EPS version, but the GEFS seems to be heading in that direction. It looks like it might be trying to set up a proper Aleutian low at the end as well. Hopefully that's the right idea. I also find it interesting that NOAA never declared this an official el nino. They still have it as enso neutral. So maybe we should be thinking of this year more as a warm neutral?

QvWDVaa.jpg

Maybe the +EPO the models are going to at the start of February is just a transition pattern. Notice those VP anomalies are stretched west back to Indonesia. That is the lingering influence from the current MJO heading into 6. If the VP anomalies consolidate closer to the Date Line in February, then we may get the typical El Niño +EPO/+PNA. While not as cold as Monday was, it could allow more of a STJ dominant pattern. It all depends on how the MJO shakes out next 10 days. The Euro is more optimistic with the faster decay. The other models linger longer near 6. 

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn’t go that far since it only takes one with snowstorms just like hurricanes. We have had a number of winters where 1 storm saved the whole winter. We just need to get some improvement from the Pacific Jet and finally see the MJO decay. Perhaps, at some point in February we can get a more traditional STJ pattern and see the PAC jet weaken. This could happen if the MJO decays and allows a more typical El Niño forcing to become eastablished near the Date Line. 

Root for this pattern to emerge in February

B53112EA-8916-44EA-95AA-CEE32CEAADAE.png.eac2382b6bab4a2affe0d2f09db12fb5.png

6333DE75-F371-4D54-9173-D1F2BCD80F85.png.33871116ada83d05faef180ca613fd59.png

Unfortunately it looks like the raging PAC jet is going to come screaming back for at least a time in early-mid February. You can already see it really loading up again in the far western Pacific. It looks like quite an impressive jet extension at that. Question is, when/if it exhausts, do we get a jet retraction, weakening and favorable pattern thereafter? Honestly, I don’t know

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the +EPO the models are going to at the start of February is just a transition pattern. Notice those VP anomalies are stretched west back to Indonesia. That is the lingering influence from the current MJO heading into 6. If the VP anomalies consolidate closer to the Date Line in February, then we may get the typical El Niño +EPO/+PNA. While not as cold as Monday was, it could allow more of a STJ dominant pattern. It all depends on how the MJO shakes out next 10 days. The Euro is more optimistic with the faster decay. The other models linger longer near 6. 

Yeah, that's the hope I think. Those warm waters parked around Indonesia have been problematic in my opinion. Ideally, we want some cooler waters there with the warmer waters in the nino regions. Except nino 1+2, we want those cooler as well. Overall warm waters everywhere (anomaly wise) doesn't have the same effect. Like it was discussed the other day. 

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3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

isn't it better to look at the EPS at the 10 day range?

Well this tool has been useless at any rate.       GEFS has had at least 50 16-day periods, using one run per day to show a high probability of near 0", but failed to do so.    Don't you find it strange the OPs can not even produce a single fantasy snowfall presentation this season, even here at the peak.     That must mean we are very far from the real thing.   Sun_Tues will not work out since when the PW is shown AN, the temps. here are shown 5*-15* AN also.   Where is the 'invisible hand'?

Meanwhile dig these temps. for Chicago starting today.   This was pointed out by JB today.     We'll see if this is correct.   Much warmer on a relative basis by the time it reaches EC.

KORD_2019012300_ecmwf_min_max_10.png

KNYC_2019012300_ecmwf_min_max_10.png

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2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Doesn’t sound very promising for those that are rooting for a blockbuster winter 

It’s about over.  MJO has refused to cooperate all season.  and strong pac jet continues.  Not much on modeling impresses this morning....

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just last week the models were hinting at a faster MJO decay. Now they just want to keep it going longer again. So we go back to the winter default position of waiting to see what the MJO actually does. 

2D43AB18-25A0-46EA-8DFB-4F00A1859ADB.gif.de8ef83e22ac16cc9ae4650516948c87.gif

 

Mjo looks alot better this morning. EPS has blocking going into February.

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

Great post as always!   I appreciate the explanation.  

We just never know what will happen, despite the pattern we may or may not be in.  

It only takes 1 storm here for the coast.

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It only takes 1 storm here for the coast.

I think that’s what we have to hope for at this point.  February 2006 delivered the goods in a generally horrid winter

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It’s coming winter will reorganize itself if the mjo goes back to 7-8 territory. February is looking interesting with the teleconnections.

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11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s coming winter will reorganize itself if the mjo goes back to 7-8 territory. February is looking interesting with the teleconnections.

A trip through 7-8-1 might do the trick for s storm or two.   

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2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am reading conflicting statements about the MJO, some saying favorable, some saying no.... 

Favorable

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Close to a 50 degree temperature rise from Monday  coming up for Thursday. These near to over 50 degree temperature jumps in under a week ahave become more common recently. This is more a Rockies type of pattern with the Chinooks out there.

NYC

1-21-19.....4

1-24-19.....59

................+55

 

2-17-18....28

2-21-18....78

...............+50

 

1-7-18......5

1-12-18....61

..............+56

 

1-9-17....14

1-12-17..66

.............+52

 

2-14-16....-1

2-20-16...61

..............+62

 

1-5-16.....11

1-10-16...59

..............+48

 

1-7-14.....4

1-11-14...58

..............+54

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The models are showing it getting very cold starting wednesday next week. Several days in a row with high temps only in the 20s. Let's hope we can get some snow out of that cold pattern. Right now it looks cold/dry but it's longer range, so hopefully the models will pick up on something.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Close to a 50 degree temperature rise from Monday  coming up for Thursday. These near to over 50 degree temperature jumps in under a week ahave become more common recently. This is more a Rockies type of pattern with the Chinooks out there.

How far back do you have to go before you find one such event outside the months of Jan and Feb?

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13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

How far back do you have to go before you find one such event outside the months of Jan and Feb?

They have become more common in January and February since the 1-7-14...4 to 1-11-14...58. New temperature jump records have been set for this time of year since then. I would have to look into the biggest temperature rises during the other months. 

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As compared to gung-ho outlooks, across the board, this winter has a legitimate chance to challenge 2001-2002 as the worst winter ever. What will put this winter over the top will be the constant 1-3 day uber-annoying cold spurts in between rain events....

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56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The models are showing it getting very cold starting wednesday next week. Several days in a row with high temps only in the 20s. Let's hope we can get some snow out of that cold pattern. Right now it looks cold/dry but it's longer range, so hopefully the models will pick up on something.

They have been wrong for weeks, let's hope that trend continues.

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Just now, weatherlogix said:

They have been wrong for weeks, let's hope that trend continues.

now the American models aren't even downloading data - Government Shutdown to blame ? --this from tropical tidbits :

Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just last week the models were hinting at a faster MJO decay. Now they just want to keep it going longer again. So we go back to the winter default position of waiting to see what the MJO actually does. 

2D43AB18-25A0-46EA-8DFB-4F00A1859ADB.gif.de8ef83e22ac16cc9ae4650516948c87.gif

 

Frustrating for me as a hobbyist, Chris.  I can only imagine the migraines it causes professional forecasters.  Wreaking havoc on LR models too since, when they get the MJO wrong, their LR outputs become rather useless...probably explains why many have been duped into pinning their hopes to the pretty pictures constantly showing a favorable pattern ten days out, only to (literally) get caught in the rain down the road.

 

What do you think accounts for the poor job the models have done with the MJO this year?

 

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28 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Frustrating for me as a hobbyist, Chris.  I can only imagine the migraines it causes professional forecasters.  Wreaking havoc on LR models too since, when they get the MJO wrong, their LR outputs become rather useless...probably explains why many have been duped into pinning their hopes to the pretty pictures constantly showing a favorable pattern ten days out, only to (literally) get caught in the rain down the road.

 

What do you think accounts for the poor job the models have done with the MJO this year?

 

Well that's part of the problem. Too many forecasters rely on the models and future cast. I recall a time when there was less reliance on both. Mets would often have differing thoughts on a storm or pattern. I recall Elliot Abrams giving the forecast on WBZ radio in Boston. Often times he would go into detail regarding a storm's possible outcomes. And he often mixed in poetry.  Mark Rosenthal was another on air met who would go into great detail. Tim Kelley on NECN is old school. I enjoy his weather segments.

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51 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

What do you think accounts for the poor job the models have done with the MJO this year?

 

I would say the general hybrid look to the Pacific pattern that I posted a few days ago.

We have certainly been getting some contradictory patterns in the Pacific in recent years. The warming of the equatorial Pacific west of the Date Line has amped up the MJO. It used to be that the Western Pacific would cool off during El Niño’s. But now we get a solid block of SST warmth from South America to Asia. There has also been quite a bit of SST warming off the equator in the Tropical Pacific. So we are mixing SST patterns together which would remained separate in the past. We can get this stuff like the SOI being out of phase with ENSO. Along with jet patterns that can look hybrid. There was also  record precipitation in 2016-2017 for parts of California that broke the super Niño records set in 1983 and 1998. Almost like a one year delay from the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

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In other words, indexes based on previous atmospheric conditions may not be as useful as they used to be. Does this mean that the constant chatter about this or that index can be reduced? 

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