weathermedic Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wind seems to have died down quite a bit over the last hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 High temperature here today was 13 ... twice. It was 13 at midnight and then again this afternoon. The low this morning was 6. Our snowdepth has increased to 0. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 degrees here in the Bronx cold night again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, weathermedic said: Wind seems to have died down quite a bit over the last hour or so. Can confirm. But those breezes are still cutting through me. I had to retype this post a few times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Unc, did NYC ever drop to 5 degrees or lower 1 day after 1.00”+ of rain before? over/under what do you think the chances are this this morning's 4 degrees isn't the lowest temp we see this winter and the chances of a negative temperature with another arctic outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Low here this am was 6 (5.7). Noon temperature is 9. Lots of clouds, a few flurries about. Almost a dusting from the sound enhanced area over the Hamptons: https://www.hamptons.com/Southampton-Village-Cam#.XEX821xKhhE I heard there were waterspouts out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 21 hours ago, Dan76 said: Could be worse Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around -23. Wind chill values as low as -72. Very windy, with a northwest wind 85 to 90 mph increasing to 95 to 100 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Mt Washington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This morning, much of the region experienced its coldest temperatures of the winter so far. Daily minimum temperatures included: Allentown: 5° (lowest since 1/18/2018: 4°); Boston: 5° (lowest since 1/7/2018: -2°); New York City: 4° (lowest since 2/14/2016: -1°); Newark: 4° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); Philadelphia: 10° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); and Poughkeepsie: 3° (lowest since 1/18/2018: -2°). In addition, New York City's high temperature of 14° was that city's lowest maximum temperature since January 6, 2018 when the thermometer topped out at just 13°. The SOI was +7.78 today. The SOI could go negative within 3-6 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.132. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.055. On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). That amplitude had risen from the January 19-adjusted figure of 1.426. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. Nevertheless, a rapid collapse of the MJO into low amplitude values is unlikely. Instead, the process will likely be gradual perhaps requiring an additional 5 or more days. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Even the Southeast could experience potential snowfall opportunities. During the next 10 days, two storms will likely impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm in much or all of the region. The latter storm could be the bigger one and potentially snowy. Details about the latter storm remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important. The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential. Operational models that whipsaw from > 8" for a given location at one cycle then little or nothing for the same location at the next 12-hour cycle should be largely discounted until their run-to-run continuity improves. There is a big difference between 500 mb verification scores and synoptic detail verification. The EPS and GEFS continue to hint at a pattern with potential. At this timeframe, there is little reason to discount the existence of such potential, especially as critical details remain unresolved. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City has continued to increase. The implied probability is currently 55%. This colder than normal monthly average would occur during a month when the first 9 days had a mean temperature of 40.0°. During January 1869-2018, only 4 out of the 20 January cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above through 1/9 had a monthly mean temperature below 32.6° (the current normal figure): 1939, 1966, 2000, and 2005. Don, how good are the chances that the 4 degree low wont be the lowest temperature of the season and that we might even see below zero lows at some point this winter? I remember asking you this right before winter started too lol. I have a feeling the odds have increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 hours ago, bluewave said: 17 was the best NYC did for a low max during the 13-14 winter. 1 2017-2018 13 0 2 2016-2017 23 0 3 2015-2016 15 0 4 2014-2015 19 0 5 2013-2014 17 0 6 2012-2013 20 0 7 2011-2012 27 0 8 2010-2011 23 0 9 2009-2010 20 0 10 2008-2009 16 0 11 2007-2008 20 0 12 2006-2007 18 0 13 2005-2006 24 0 14 2004-2005 18 0 15 2003-2004 15 0 - 2002-2003 15 0 17 2001-2002 31 0 18 2000-2001 25 0 19 1999-2000 19 I'm surprised it wasn't colder on VD 2016 when the low was -1, the high was still 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 hours ago, bluewave said: That looks like it could be one of the closest with only a 2 day lag following the heaviest rain. 1885-02-09 37 22 29.5 -4.7 35 0 1.74 0.0 1885-02-10 45 11 28.0 -6.4 37 0 0.48 T 1885-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -30.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 the good old days when they actually measured temps to the nearest tenth of a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +0.9[33.3]. Should be +1.4[33.8] by the 30th. EURO does it again and drops all Snow for the next 10days. GEFS totally collapsed to 60% chance of just 4" by Feb.7. Use these tools for predicting the economy. They are embarrassing themselves every day. 13.8* here at 6am. 13.6* here at 7am. 24.5^ at Noon.(10* yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: over/under what do you think the chances are this this morning's 4 degrees isn't the lowest temp we see this winter and the chances of a negative temperature with another arctic outbreak? There were only 8 other years since 1950 when NYC dropped to 5 degrees or lower from Jan 21 to 31. We would have to go back to the early 60’s to find a lower temperature in February. Year.....1/20-1/31 low.....February low temperature........ENSO 2014...............5..................................9............................neutral 2005...............5..................................16..........................El Niño 1994...............0..................................7.............................neutral 1985...............-2.................................14...........................La Niña 1977................1..................................8............................El Niño 1976................-1.................................10..........................La Niña 1963.................4...................................-2..........................neutral 1961.................5...................................-2..........................neutral 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: There were only 8 other years since 1950 when NYC dropped to 5 degrees or lower from Jan 21 to 31. We would have to go back to the early 60’s to find a lower temperature in February. Year.....1/20-1/31 low.....February low temperature........ENSO 2014...............5..................................9............................neutral 2005...............5..................................16..........................El Niño 1994...............0..................................7.............................neutral 1985...............-2.................................14...........................La Niña 1977................1..................................8............................El Niño 1976................-1.................................10..........................La Niña 1963.................4...................................-2..........................neutral 1961.................5...................................-2..........................neutral 1994 was notable for getting to 0 or below on two different Arctic shots but they were both in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 when was the last time a daily max was set at midnight and again the next midnight?... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, how good are the chances that the 4 degree low wont be the lowest temperature of the season and that we might even see below zero lows at some point this winter? I remember asking you this right before winter started too lol. I have a feeling the odds have increased. I could see NYC's suburbs having below zero cold. I still remain uncertain about Central Park, as a lot would have to go right for such an outcome there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12Z GFS Para has a Saskatchewan Screamer that develops and moves southeast towards our region early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS Para has a Saskatchewan Screamer that develops and moves southeast towards our region early next week Then it cuts west of Montreal and we get a few sprinkles/flurries. Can't win lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Then it cuts west of Montreal and we get a few sprinkles/flurries. Can't win lol. you are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 1:06 PM, Dan76 said: Was at Jones Beach this am looked like some off shore. Special Marine Warning for... Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 40 NM... Peconic and Gardiners Bays... * Until 130 PM EST. * Very cold air moving out over the waters around eastern Long Island has already produced isolated waterspouts late this morning. More waterspouts may be possible into early this afternoon. Gorgeous photos on twitter today. https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1087541265875562498 https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1087732357635940356?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/GSBImagesMBusch/status/1087501679409487872 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The Saskatchewan Screamer is now showing up on the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: The Saskatchewan Screamer is now showing up on the 18Z GFS Yeah but it still passes north of Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah but it still passes north of Montreal Correct Montreal , North Carolina - Also this Clipper type system develops over the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: you are wrong My bad. Was looking at the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 25 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah but it still passes north of Montreal was looking at the little one 30 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The SOI was +3.82 today. The SOI could go negative within 2-5 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.577. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.065. On January 21, the MJO moved into Phase 5 with an amplitude of 1.711 (RMM). That amplitude had risen somewhat from the January 20-adjusted figure of 1.627. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 5 and then Phase 6 over the next several days to perhaps a week. The MJO's amplitude could continue to increase in the near-term, before leveling off and then declining. However, its amplitude is very unlikely to reach the levels seen during late December into the start of January. Nevertheless, a rapid collapse of the MJO into low amplitude values is unlikely. Instead, the process will likely be gradual perhaps requiring an additional 4 or more days. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values for a sustained period of time after perhaps some near-term positive fluctuations. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Even the Southeast could experience potential snowfall opportunities. Before then, a potentially moisture-laden storm could bring a widespread 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts to the region from late January 23 into January 25. Another storm could impact the region in the January 27-29 period. That storm could bring snowfall to parts of the region. Yet another storm could move into the region to conclude the month. Finally, it appears that the El Niño will remain weak and basin-wide in nature during February. That outcome could have implications for the month as a whole. However, since 1950, there have been no cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C to +0.99°C with a similar or even warmer ENSO 1+2 anomaly in February. In other words, the current ENSO is in somewhat uncharted meteorological territory if anomalies similar to the current weekly anomalies prevail during February. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Finally, it appears that the El Niño will remain weak and basin-wide in nature during February. That outcome could have implications for the month as a whole. However, since 1950, there have been no cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C to +0.99°C with a similar or even warmer ENSO 1+2 anomaly in February. In other words, the current ENSO is in somewhat uncharted meteorological territory if anomalies similar to the current weekly anomalies prevail during February. And I'm assuming that's going to screw everything up for us in February. This entire winter thus far has not followed the typical narrative and I don't think it ever will. It's been the most frustrating winter I've ever experienced. Right now I think there's a 30% chance that November's event won't be topped. I give a 10% chance that we don't see more than an inch of snow for the rest of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Flood Watch in effect here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon for 1-2" of rain w/locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 3 degs. AN. Month to date is +0.4[32.8]. Should be +0.8[33.3] by the 30th. EURO is a Trace of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 60% chance of at least 7" by Feb. 8. 31.4* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 3 degs. AN. Month to date is +0.4[32.8]. Should be +0.8[33.3]. EURO is a Trace of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 60% chance of at least 7" by Feb. 8. 31.4* here at 6am. isn't it better to look at the EPS at the 10 day range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: January 21st may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter for NYC. Notice how all the guidance pulls the -EPO block near Alaska back to the Aleutians day 6-10. So we get a brief warm up back to the 50’s on Thursday. But the next cool down won’t be as impressive as Monday was. The MJO is lingering longer now in phase 6 than the models were indicating a few days ago. That may be why the longer range ensembles have more of a +EPO look as we start February. Also notice the condradictory continuing Pacific ENSO and SOI response we discussed the other day. The Pacific Jet continues to be stronger than is expected for an El Niño. We will have to wait and see what the MJO does beyond the start of February to get a better handle on things for the month. Doesn’t sound very promising for those that are rooting for a blockbuster winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now