LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12 hours ago, bluewave said: We have to look at these indices in non-canonical ways when there are so many overlapping influences. and also in the venue of a changing climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It only takes 1 storm here for the coast.I big storm the entire winter? Sign me upSent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Current temp is 57 here. Quite the temp roller coaster this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: The arctic blast for late next week is really starting to look intense. It could be almost as cold as the one we just had, but longer lasting. Such an irritating pattern to get a big rainstorm in between brutal arctic blasts. I hope the calls for a snowy February pan out. Models are trending colder with it too. Given its still several days away it could come in tamer but yeah this looks impressive. The Gfs even has snow squalls prior to the Arctic air arriving and temperatures during the day in the single digits. Incredible if that were true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models are trending colder with it too. Given its still several days away it could come in tamer but yeah this looks impressive. The Gfs even has snow squalls prior to the Arctic air arriving and temperatures during the day in the single digits. Incredible if that were true. if that were true we could get below zero lows even in the metro area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I dont know what RSI (Regional Snowfall Index?) is but I saw a chart somewhere that showed how many Cat 3 or higher RSI snowstorms we have seen by month since the 1870s, and there have been 4 in December, 10 in January, 13 in February and 0 in March. And yet people argue with me every March when a big snowstorm is being projected, and I point out to them that, at least in the immediate metro region, a storm of over 10 inches is rare in March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 34degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +0.8[33.1]. Should end Jan. at +1.1[33.6]. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 8" of Snow by Feb. 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Winds picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The monthly temperature departure will probably come down to the last few days of January. Departures will get pushed further above normal with the warmth coming in tomorrow. A strong enough Arctic outbreak next week could tip the departure to colder. The below normal just north of Albany West to Buffalo and NE to NNE coincides with the snow gradient this year. I know we don't need below normal temps to snow in January but this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I dont know what RSI (Regional Snowfall Index?) is but I saw a chart somewhere that showed how many Cat 3 or higher RSI snowstorms we have seen by month since the 1870s, and there have been 4 in December, 10 in January, 13 in February and 0 in March. What about that little storm in 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: If we do finish Dec and Jan with under 2” in NYC, hopefully it’s a strong snowfall finish like 2013 and 1993. NYC years under 2” for Jan and Feb 1 1995-01-31 0.2 0 2 1998-01-31 0.5 0 3 1919-01-31 0.6 0 4 2019-01-31 0.7 8 5 1932-01-31 0.9 0 6 1900-01-31 1.1 0 7 1914-01-31 1.6 0 8 1950-01-31 1.7 0 9 1973-01-31 1.8 0 10 2013-01-31 1.9 0 - 1993-01-31 1.9 0 12 Oh wow, thanks for this list, we now have two winters in there that had late season triple phasers- March 1914 and March 1993. Do you have the final seasonal snowfall totals for all those Chris? I know 2012-13 and 1992-93 were decent and 1913-1914 was really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: What about that little storm in 93? I think it's just for NYC so that one doesn't make the list. I'm more shocked about March 1888 not making the list. I tried to look it up but every time I do I get the government shut down warning https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ https://www.publicgardens.org/resources/regional-snowfall-index If you go by the whole northeast though, there's a few in March https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00101.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think it's just for NYC so that one doesn't make the list. I'm more shocked about March 1888 not making the list. It's a regional scale, that makes no sense as 93 is #1 on the NESIS. Bizzare having neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's a regional scale, that makes no sense as 93 is #1 on the NESIS. Bizzare having neither. Yeah, see that second link I posted which is a pdf journal, it doesn't say anywhere that the scale can just be applied to NYC, it's regional and covers the entire Northeast. The graphic I saw about no March RSI Cat 3 events in March in NYC was on TWC during their WU program. I got the cache of NESIS https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:7y5yM_2iQRIJ:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us it shows 3 NESIS 3 events in December and 3 in March https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HxBqNyst0HMJ:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/historic-storms+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us this one shows the RSI 3 events https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00101.1 Scrolling down to show just Northeast RSI 3 events you also come up with 3 March and 3 December storms that reached that level- even if most of them are inland storms, there are probably more than that, those are just the top 25 and only gets us down to a rating of 6.85, while RSI 3 makes it all the way down to 6.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hopefully, we can see a more traditional El Niño STJ pattern for snow in February. While this is beyond the good range for ensembles like the GEFS, it’s consolidating the Niño forcing near the Date Line in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 High wind gust potential with the squall line this afternoon especially near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Some opportunities for snowfall on models as we head into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, we can see a more traditional El Niño STJ pattern for snow in February. While this is beyond the good range for ensembles like the GEFS, it’s consolidating the Niño forcing near the Date Line in February. So hopefully we can kick this La-Ninaish pattern to the curb.? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, TwcMan said: So hopefully we can kick this La-Ninaish pattern to the curb.? You would want to see the EPS come on board with what the GEFS is showing. Unfortunately, it’s hard to find the EPS VP anomaly data. Mike Ventrice posts the EPS tropical forcing charts sometimes. I believe it’s a custom WSI product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would want to see the EPS come on board with what the GEFS is showing. Unfortunately, it’s hard to find the EPS VP anomaly data. Mike Ventrice posts the EPS tropical forcing charts sometimes. I believe it’s a custom WSI product. you really want to see the NAO go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: you really want to see the NAO go negative Good luck with that. We can’t buy a -NAO the last few winters. I think we have entered into a long term +NAO cycle related to the long term -AMO flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck with that. We can’t buy a -NAO the last few winters. I think we have entered into a long term +NAO cycle related to the long term -AMO flip I’m not sure we are there yet but we are getting there. I think the problem the last 6 or so years is something unrelated. Even during the 1980s the NAO still was negative a decent amount of time although only the 83-84 and 84-85 winters saw it average negative overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Starting off 2019 on a wet note. Heavy rain and 59F right now, amazing turnaround from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: High wind gust potential with the squall line this afternoon especially near the coast. It's a shame we probably won't get an 18Z sounding from OKX. Both 925 and 850mb winds are forecast at record levels the next several hours. Fairly widespread 80-85KT winds showing up on the JFK terminal doppler and DIX between 2000-5000', with a few embedded maxes over 90KT, and the jet is still forecast to intensify. Hard to say if it will mix down in a widespread fashion, but I'd imagine a few 50KT gusts are possible in the region between 11-3ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 From the National Weather Service in Upton, NY: "...A line of heavy rain with possible thunderstorms will move in this afternoon between 12PM and 3PM. Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible with this line. This could bring down tree limbs, trees, and power lines." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: if that were true we could get below zero lows even in the metro area! I’m not sure yet about NYC going below 0 because the trajectory of the vortex takes too long to get here and crosses the Lakes. If the whole setup ends up more progressive or the vortex dips in more east it’s very possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would want to see the EPS come on board with what the GEFS is showing. Unfortunately, it’s hard to find the EPS VP anomaly data. Mike Ventrice posts the EPS tropical forcing charts sometimes. I believe it’s a custom WSI product. There’s pretty good guidance suggesting that we go positive EPO and back to zonal come the 2nd week of February. If you look at the 200mb, the Pacific jet is gaining quite a bit a strength now over the far western Pacific again and it would appear another jet extension period is building up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: you really want to see the NAO go negative We don't need a negative nao for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: There’s pretty good guidance suggesting that we go positive EPO and back to zonal come the 2nd week of February. If you look at the 200mb, the Pacific jet is gaining quite a bit a strength again over the far western Pacific again and it would appear another jet extension period is building up Based off which model? Blocking looks to take place as early as next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Based off which model? Blocking looks to take place as early as next week I’m not talking about next week. I said come the 2nd week of February. You can see the retrogression on all models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now