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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

How’s the LR looking? To me it seems we oscillate between AN and BN but avg out around normal for temps. Mostly rain but with some mood flake potential. 

You are only saying "mood flakes" this winter in Asheville? That's a bold statement.

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19 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I know you werent here last year James so I will remind you we banked more than this forecast in one single event....in December......drops mic.....

I'm underwhelmed.  Tell me 20"+ for the triad and I might perk up.  

Haha, I know, but I haven’t seen more than a dusting of snow since 2017, and that was just because I was on vacation.  I’m desperate. :P

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8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays!:D

Based on what?   The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad.  No torches.

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On 11/29/2019 at 1:00 PM, mackerel_sky said:

December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays!:D

Get a grip man..... you know the mountains will get their share. Heck, there are two more NWFS events already on the models behind Monday's event.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Get a grip man..... you know the mountains will get their share. Heck, there are two more NWFS events already on the models behind Monday's event.

Exactly. 

The models aren't good enough right now.

But I see some changes.  Would not be surprised. 

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21 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Based on what?   The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad.  No torches.

Based on models! I don’t see any cold snaps, I mean I get down to 28 one day out of the next 15 . I mean if you’re here to track normal temps and occasional rains , by all means, go for it!

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Based on models! I don’t see any cold snaps, I mean I get down to 28 one day out of the next 15 . I mean if you’re here to track normal temps and occasional rains , by all means, go for it!

Yeah Mack, I don't see any big pushes of arctic air the next couple of weeks. No torches, but as you stated very normal (continental air masses). I wouldn't mind seeing an arctic front (Siberian Express) come trough; even if it just produced a dry outcome. Seems like it's been sometime since we've seen this in December.  

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah Mack, I don't see any big pushes of arctic air the next couple of weeks. No torches, but as you stated very normal (continental air masses). I wouldn't mind seeing an arctic front (Siberian Express) come trough; even if it just produced a dry outcome. Seems like it's been sometime since we've seen this in December.  

Normal would be a win for December.

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49 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Normal would be a win for December.

In my opinion above average would be a win looking at the past 10 or so years!  

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Well from whats happened in the past I wouldn't want a big snowstorm in December because I swear every time we have a big snowstorm in December I think we're going to have a great winter and then the rest of the winter we end up without another nice storm at all.  So I'll take my chances with the big snows holding off until January so maybe we can get a couple of nice storms.  :snowwindow:

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Well from whats happened in the past I wouldn't want a big snowstorm in December because I swear every time we have a big snowstorm in December I think we're going to have a great winter and then the rest of the winter we end up without another nice storm at all.  So I'll take my chances with the big snows holding off until January so maybe we can get a couple of nice storms.  :snowwindow:

I understand your reasoning, but I've learned over the years get what you can, any time of the year (..we're the SE). We could have a warm December and then keep getting warmth straight through spring. 

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14 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I understand your reasoning, but I've learned over the years get what you can, any time of the year (..we're the SE). We could have a warm December and then keep getting warmth straight through spring. 

Having been here in the SE for a year now, and used to a good amount of snow over the past decade, I have had to make my piece that I will never see snowfall total's like this again (except 2011-2012)

YEAR YEAR Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
2009 2010 0 0 26.3 12.7 28.4 0.4 0 67.8      
2010 2011 0 0 19.8 35.7 4.7 1.3 0 61.5      
2011 2012 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 0 5.5      
2012 2013 0 1.1 1.4 4.7 35.8 8.8 0 51.8      
2013 2014 0 0.2 5.4 24.8 23.9 3.2 0 57.5      
2014 2015 0 0 0.3 22.8 15.2 23.9 0 62.2      
2015 2016 0 0 Trace 18.8 14.3 2.7 0.1 35.9      
2016 2017 0 0 4.1 14.3 15.8 7.9 0 42.1      
2017 2018 0 0 7.4 21.2 1.3 21 4.3 55.2

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Robert had a short piece on FB about how the Euro/GFS/CMC keeps showing Western American Ridging showing up in the next 7-14 days.

Potentially artic outbreak. With storm track from Pacific NW to South Central states to EC. 

Should allow the GOM to open up.

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1 hour ago, Fantom X said:

Having been here in the SE for a year now, and used to a good amount of snow over the past decade, I have had to make my piece that I will never see snowfall total's like this again (except 2011-2012)

YEAR YEAR Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
2009 2010 0 0 26.3 12.7 28.4 0.4 0 67.8      
2010 2011 0 0 19.8 35.7 4.7 1.3 0 61.5      
2011 2012 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 0 5.5      
2012 2013 0 1.1 1.4 4.7 35.8 8.8 0 51.8      
2013 2014 0 0.2 5.4 24.8 23.9 3.2 0 57.5      
2014 2015 0 0 0.3 22.8 15.2 23.9 0 62.2      
2015 2016 0 0 Trace 18.8 14.3 2.7 0.1 35.9      
2016 2017 0 0 4.1 14.3 15.8 7.9 0 42.1      
2017 2018 0 0 7.4 21.2 1.3 21 4.3 55.2

If you look at our odds of a big year for each individual year, it's low. But we do live in a region where big snows can happen. So even though I would say don't expect much, you can hope/dream that we get one of those rare years.

  https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

 

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

If it gives you any confidence, Robert is a full Gung-Ho on the pattern getting cold for someone in the east mid month.

Robert's bullish bias is probably near 80%.  Good met and nice guy.  But he definitely has a bias toward cold.

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

If it gives you any confidence, Robert is a full Gung-Ho on the pattern getting cold for someone in the east mid month.

That gets me almost as excited as when JB goes all in on cold and snow! Which I think he just did a few days back!:devilsmiley:

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Long way out but the last euro panel is probably a significant ice storm. 

Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are.

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are.

1043 MB high will get the job done. On second look, I think It’s probably more sleet and snow across NC with the ice across SC and NE GA. 

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Well, everyone always says you need a good snowpack to sustain the cold air... Top GIF is the more recent.

 

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6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What a difference a day makes. Suddenly, everyone is starting to honk about an upcoming mid month snow and ice chance for the Carolinas northward.

It's what happens as soon as something shows up in the LR. No one worries about patterns or trends. It's all doom and gloom until they actually see pink purple and blue on a computer map at hour 384 that the idea that we are entering winter weather season and there will be threats materializes in people's heads! But I regress, not a bad pattern at all. No prolonged torches or SE highs. Decent cold shots seemingly weekly. A BN November. Heck, it's December 3rd and the mood on this board feels like it's February 3rd and most places are still waiting on their first flakes! 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

It's what happens as soon as something shows up in the LR. No one worries about patterns or trends. It's all doom and gloom until they actually see pink purple and blue on a computer map at hour 384 that the idea that we are entering winter weather season and there will be threats materializes in people's heads! But I regress, not a bad pattern at all. No prolonged torches or SE highs. Decent cold shots seemingly weekly. A BN November. Heck, it's December 3rd and the mood on this board feels like it's February 3rd and most places are still waiting on their first flakes! 

The mood on WX Twitter today is very chipper and buzzy  for those in the Eastern half of the U.S.  Let's hope it holds.

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bob chill had a nice catch with what looked like the transfer happening near Savannah in that final panel. If that happens it’s snow-ice-snow for lots of us.

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