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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, jjwxman said:

Geez... The FV3 looks AWESOME.  But the 12z NAM definitely took the air out of the room.  #NAM'd

 

Brad P.’s video this morning says it all to me.  Might not be blockbuster for the weenies but you can’t jump ship model to model.  To be honest I’m hoping for minimal effects. I need to work prior to the old man coming down the chimney!

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning.  The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event.  If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow.  If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north 

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

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You can see the differences at 500 pretty well, between Nam and FV3. Temp profiles don't mean much when the setup is different. 

fv3p_z500_vort_eus_14.png

namconus_z500_vort_eus_51.png

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

Think the NAM will correct course or is this the trend?

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Nam is also restricted in its raob spectrum where as globals arent handicapped as much. So this ns energy is not being seen well by nam at the moment and we can see how misplacing it will affect end result

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneked down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I think you're spot on. I've noticed the trend today is for models showing a weaker high, 1032-1035 (vs yesterday 1036-1040) and it being too far west, over WI, instead of Pen. Either the low is too fast or the high is too slow but it's getting left behind.

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comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north 

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Just now, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

I think we’re good here. A foot or more of snow falls over a large area before the assumed changeover happens.

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19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

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Submitted without comment.
fv3p_asnow_eus_20.thumb.png.d37724ced29da6cd7b019a9f6f9adc2e.png

The FV3 is night and day with QPF vs op gfs. Feel like this will be a good test. This year has trended more QPF in our bigger rain events during the fall so it fits the pattern


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