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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneked down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I think you're spot on. I've noticed the trend today is for models showing a weaker high, 1032-1035 (vs yesterday 1036-1040) and it being too far west, over WI, instead of Pen. Either the low is too fast or the high is too slow but it's getting left behind.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north 

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Just now, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

I think we’re good here. A foot or more of snow falls over a large area before the assumed changeover happens.

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19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

This was the basis of my question earlier that I wasn't sure if someone answered it.  It is of better hope that the global models pick up much better with the HP placement and strength while the NAM does better with the thermal profiling of the CAD once the HP is set in place?   

Also someone mentioned earlier that I wasn't sure if it had been answered.  Is the fact the NAM is much closer to the event over the southern plains region should we use that model trend as a better gauge for what's going to happen in our neck of the woods.  Or since it's a CAD event, the NAM's trending projections of the southern plains isn't as neccessary to what happens in the South East?  Any input is appreciated, thanks!

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The problem with the FV3 totals is that the model is including sleet, and possibly freezing rain, in its totals.  You're safer to take half of the total number and assume that will be the highest potential amount of snow.  Then, you won't be overly disappointed.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual

I really feel like this will be our typical storm. Models waffling but the players are in place. Outside of the mountains it depends on the placement of the high and the strength of the CAD. The R/S line will set up in its usual place 20 or so miles north or south of I85 and we end up with 1-6 inches in those areas above. Just my thoughts right now.

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