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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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00z Nam has our northern supressor vort screaming down at hr 57 looking super healthy. Don't see how this run could get too far north with that feature.

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1 minute ago, SENC said:

Is It  ok to use this? for Useful analysis? (Is this page allowed)..?? My sincere Apologies if it isn't.. 

 

 

FV3.JPG

Man look at that wedge! 

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Well ladies and gentlemen, after a brief successful revive, it appears the GFSFV3 has flatlined again. Please pray that the  defibrillator works again and we can see this run out.

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11 minutes ago, bargainmusic said:

16.4"! Bring it on!

 

8 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

I live just west of Hickory in that bright green spot center in burke lord that would be a lifetime total for me.

Isn’t the FV3 the  new model that took the place of the GFS?

supposed to be the best thing out since sliced bread.

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

at HR 63 on the NAM, HP over Iowa is 1040 MB. That's the strongest I've seen it modeled. 

Tied for strongest, 18z had it at 1040 as well.

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2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

 

Isn’t the FV3 the  new model that took the place of the GFS?

It will take the place of the gfs in Jan 

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4 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Living in the Greenville SC area I also remember maybe 3 years ago we were super close to a modeled huge storm. Gsp even mentioned 12" possible for Greenville. We ended up with maybe an inch of slush after all the cold rain and mixing. Crossing my fingers that this one gives us something decent! 

Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!

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Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!

Yup that's the one! 

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!

I got buried under over half inch of ice..

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1 hour ago, WeatherNC said:

Somewhere along a line from Charlottesville to Asheville, I am currently looking at the area around Sparta.  Still have to Friday to hammer down specifics. I did order a new snow shovel on Amazon, professional grade.

Maybe I should rent our bedroom...I can offer IPAs and my wife's amazing shrimp and grits with cheddar and bacon :)  Anyway...love the tracking here...it's all about the joy of the chase

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The NAM finishes with an impressive 1041 mb HP over IL at hour 84. sub zero 850 temps well into SC and dew points into the teens in northern NC. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The trajectory of the precip @75 on the nam just looks awesome. Looks like it’s about to go nuclear.

Well, the hour 84 NAM always, and I mean always, goes nuclear. So not really saying much.

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JB tonight's thought!! 

Just a note here to say I have not changed from the idea of a track inside Hatteras to the bench mark and if course that would also be a big city snow threat, This is likely to be a shut down storm for a few days in southern Va into western and central NC But when I look at this see this coming, And 24 horus later, I think the feedback fairy, who is well known, is playing with the model

More further back, I play this game all the time

But what of the euro so far south

we all remember its problems with the 2016 storm .. right up to the day before the storm,dont know it will get all the way back to this but it may be in between where it is now to the south and this or not!!

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18z FV3 and 0z NAM are fairly similar in regards to low placement at 84 on nam and 90 on fv3 respectively. Precip is much more expansive on the northern side of the system however on nam, noticeably for TX and OK. If that continued to translate that would be good for the northern areas of the board to ensure the precip would make it this far north. But yes for a board as a whole overall, you have to love the evolution of the low placement.

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1 minute ago, WeatherHawk said:

Maybe I should rent our bedroom...I can offer IPAs and my wife's amazing shrimp and grits with cheddar and bacon :)  Anyway...love the tracking here...it's all about the joy of the chase

I am willing to rent a bedroom here for the price of having to shovel our sidewalk, which stretches onto 2 bordering streets... Last time I had to my back was left feeling like a coal miners after years working in the caves.

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14 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Living in the Greenville SC area I also remember maybe 3 years ago we were super close to a modeled huge storm. Gsp even mentioned 12" possible for Greenville. We ended up with maybe an inch of slush after all the cold rain and mixing. Crossing my fingers that this one gives us something 

A "storm" that will live in infamy around these parts and one I will remember forever. Biggest forcast fail I can remember for this area. Even Chris Justus and John C were on air on WYFF for that day guaranteeing 8-12" of snow. Then we end up with sleet and freezing rain.

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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB tonight's thought!! 

Just a note here to say I have not changed from the idea of a track inside Hatteras to the bench mark and if course that would also be a big city snow threat, This is likely to be a shut down storm for a few days in southern Va into western and central NC But when I look at this see this coming, And 24 horus later, I think the feedback fairy, who is well known, is playing with the model

Ahh, JB's kiss of death for NC and VA. 

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Two things: 

1. Just because a low is jumping around doesn't make a model run unrealistic. Lows are going to jump to where the combination of vertical lift and low level spin are maximized. 

2. 18z GFS FV3 was a pretty cool run. Caught a wide swath of people with significant snow. Seemed like a pretty reasonable run, as far as dynamics go. Let's hope that continues.

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1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

A "storm" that will live in infamy around these parts and one I will remember forever. Biggest forcast fail I can remember for this area. Even Chris Justus and John C were on air on WYFF for that day guaranteeing 8-12" of snow. Then we end up with sleet and freezing rain.

They both nailed the forecast in WNC when IIRC, Jason Boyer was very conservative. However, I think that storm is where Chris became really gun shy of the I-85 corridor and still is today. 

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Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yeah and snow is cold...... looks like you will be getting plenty of it

I've never seen the red squirrels come down the mountain across our open field to pick at our feeders...they're on to something...

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Saw a met on twitter post a blurb from the Norman, Oklahoma forecast discussion noting that they were concerned about forecasting dewpoints and wet bulbs too high because the airmass may not moderate as much as expected due to snowpack. I know high strength and placement is more important here but if the airmass is slightly colder than expected that can only help things.

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26 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

00z Nam has our northern supressor vort screaming down at hr 57 looking super healthy. Don't see how this run could get too far north with that feature.

Yeah the NAM run looks good all the way to the end at h5...real close to Euro.  Here's the composite radar at the end

uySShhb.png

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17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Two things: 

1. Just because a low is jumping around doesn't make a model run unrealistic. Lows are going to jump to where the combination of vertical lift and low level spin are maximized. 

2. 18z GFS FV3 was a pretty cool run. Caught a wide swath of people with significant snow. Seemed like a pretty reasonable run, as far as dynamics go. Let's hope that continues.

Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics  better than its twin?

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