OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. It'll be comforting to have our favorite biases still hanging around with the new guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its not weenie urban legend...latent heat release from convective processes enhance upstream ridging. Last January's bomb being a pretty classic example. Modeling continued correcting north right up until go-time. I believe the mesos had a better handle than the globals as well, as they picked up the convective nature of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 hours ago, WinterWolf said: lol ya, you love busting chops. But I was asking a serious question to Anthony....what has changed for him to change his tune?? I'm a weenie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It'll be comforting to have our favorite biases still hanging around with the new guy. Yes, it seems a bit better from what I've noticed, but I think its still there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. the wennies are holding you to that Tip...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Isotherm expects the 2nd half of December after the brief warmup to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish What is mild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What is mild? it's less spicy than medium 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: it's less spicy than medium You suck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Could use 3-5 days of this to thaw out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You suck. Lmao....he gave you a bit of your own sarcasm right there. Gotta give him credit for that one. Nice comeback by Lurker.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao....he gave you a bit of your own sarcasm right there. Gotta give him credit for that one. Nice comeback by Lurker.... It was sarcastically flipped from our previous encounter. so, whooosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It was sarcastically flipped from our previous encounter. so, whooosh. No, I caught that Berg....c'mon now, I just wanted to give Lurker a bit of credit-he's learning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Suppression depression setting in for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 11/29/2018 at 5:52 PM, LurkerBoy said: What’s “mild”? And what’s the 10-14 day time frame? On 11/29/2018 at 6:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Warm but not hot = mild. 10-14 day timeframe is 10-14 days from today. Count 10 days from today, that 10. Add 4 days to that day and you have 14. On 11/29/2018 at 6:20 PM, LurkerBoy said: You suck , I thought he meant a 10-14 day threshold. And mild does NOT have a standard definition onthis board. 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What is mild? 47 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: it's less spicy than medium 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You suck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Suppression depression setting in for some. More will succumb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: More will succumb I’m going to the gym after work tonight. Will keep my eyes out for you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: I’m going to the gym after work tonight. Will keep my eyes out for you.... Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym I should tell my wife to scout..(she’s off limits....besides I think you’re probably looking for those under age 60). She goes to a women’s gym. It will be nice to get more climo appropriate temperatures after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And I thought I had too much time on my hands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Could use 3-5 days of this to thaw out a bit. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym "work" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 gfs no dice for weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS. Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in. If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It’s really not that far off, esp considering lead time and what it typically does with these, from dropping the northern stream in on that second wave early next week and getting it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s really not that far off, esp considering lead time and what it typically does with these, from dropping the northern stream in on that second wave early next week and getting it up here. It just phases that one a little late and keeps it offshore, Way to early to get invested in any of these scenarios right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS. Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in. If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24. I don't know if I'd be saying that at this lead time...GFS is notoriously bad with set ups like this, and it's a very complicated set up with many SW's all over the place in the flow...models are going to struggle for a while on this...it's far from figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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