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NorEastermass128

December Discussion

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Since this forum runs on an "AEMATT" theme and since E MA is out of the game through the end of November, I thought I'd kick off the December discussion.  

It looks like we have a few cutters and/or huggers to start off the first couple weeks of the first winter month.  Rumors of one-eyed piglets sightings near AK too.  NAO rising, PNA dropping, AO solidly negative but rising......

What will December bring?  Joy or dismay?

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Since this forum runs on an "AEMATT" theme and since E MA is out of the game through the end of November, I thought I'd kick off the December discussion.  

It looks like we have a few cutters and/or huggers to start off the first couple weeks of the first winter month.  Rumors of one-eyed piglets sightings near AK too.  NAO rising, PNA dropping, AO solidly negative but rising......

What will December bring?  Joy or dismay?

 

 

 

Looks like it will get bad, but for how long? As I stated before as long as the respected mets and bloggers on American Weather do not amend their good to great winter forecasts no need to worry. Even if the pig shows up for 3 full weeks we can put together another solidly above average snowfall winter.

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like it will get bad, but for how long? As I stated before as long as the respected mets and bloggers on American Weather do not amend their good to great winter forecasts no need to worry. Even if the pig shows up for 3 full weeks we can put together another solidly above average snowfall winter.

I'm secretly coveting a hope that it's stays bad ...right through until next May...  It would assist in helping to drive points home to a collection of minds that are apparently homeless. 

But that aside, I was just saying to Will in the other thread that there's some chance the pattern look of mid Dec is false -

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It may end up being nothing, but near dawn saturday could feature some light snow or rain from a weakening system ahead of the larger and probably more liquid event.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

December looks fine . There’s this idea floating around that the EPS is correct . It got Novie 100% wrong.. chances are it’s got the December post day 14 forecast wrong too. 

If it's like the GEFS we probably will relax, but not super torchy. If one extrapolated the EPS..it probably would turn into a conus wide Chinook. I feel like a mild up is inevitable to a point, but as to how much and how long...I don't know. In the meantime, we have a chance of trying to score something before that occurs. Hopefully we can.

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It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened.

I feel like we'll return to this post in late March and go..."Wow!  Spot on!"

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I feel like we'll return to this post in late March and go..."Wow!  Spot on!"

Ain't happening James

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ssttlon5_c.gif

 

Observation...be careful with all the SST anomaly maps. I've seen  a lot of maps of regions 1 & 2 with the greatest anomalies but it appears from CPC data it's region 3 & the blip in region 4.

 

Subsurface anomalies showing warmth surface in region 3 & if you look at towards the end of the animation it appears to move west as it surfaces.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Holy crap what a bunch of Debbie's....pathetic.

Yikes...I was only joking.

Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline.  Nino Decembers tend to be iffy.  That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall.  0s/10s are for the birds.

 

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24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yikes...I was only joking.

Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline.  Nino Decembers tend to be iffy.  That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall.  0s/10s are for the birds.

 

lol oh ok.   Thought you were serious.   Hey anything can happen, but I'm not overly concerned at the moment at all.  If it all goes to sh*t then so be it, but I'm not thinking it or seeing it at the moment. I never buy into the wire to wire BS, so my expectations aren't sky high either.   And yes you're right about Nino's getting going a little later, so I guess we'll see.  

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37 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yikes...I was only joking.

Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline.  Nino Decembers tend to be iffy.  That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall.  0s/10s are for the birds.

 

Depends on what you mean by second half.  I think a late December early January is actually still on the relatively early side.  Of course I mean true winter starting on December 21st and not meteorology winter starting December 1st.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks 

You got bonus snows/snow cover in November.  That's a win.  Early DEC offers up some hope as Will said before a possible relaxation mid month.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Considering we got the lion's share of December's snowfall in November, I would not worry about it.

Correct!

24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

You got bonus snows/snow cover in November.  That's a win.  Early DEC offers up some hope as Will said before a possible relaxation mid month.

This too!

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks 

I know, right? Then you have to hope January is better because if not, come mid Feb you can start to feel a little more UV on the nape. By the Ides of March we approach full nape. It's like winter is already over before it started.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm checking out for the time being, as far as any bonafide analysis goes....just chit chat for the time being.

I thought Metfan said we should watch Nov 30th? :whistle:

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I know, right? Then you have to hope January is better because if not, come mid Feb you can start to feel a little more UV on the nape. By the Ides of March we approach full nape. It's like winter is already over before it started.

Right????  I mean I think it's just about over now...No????   We had a significant snow event in November and Record Cold too, I mean what else do we need?? Bring on Morch.

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The Finite­ Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model....  lovingly referred to as the "FV3-GFS" ... is simply not interested in a warm up through D15 in the 00z run ...for how little that's worth. 

In fact, it blue bombs us D9 and threatens a dynamical arctic powder poof three days later, while the EPS and GFS are stringing endless 1" transparent QPFers west of NE.   06z was less winter optimistic but we still definitively colder overall.  

Interesting... granted, this is experimental  

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looked good like a week ago.

For whom?  It never looked promising for me when I  looked at it prior to Thanksgiving.  NNE looked ok.

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We’re not losing fukking December!  Taken verbatim, we’re wintry for most of the first half.  We may relax for 10 days thereafter but my money is on a nice holiday period after an obligatory grinch.

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