MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Icon and cmc is much further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Icon and cmc is much further north But the 24 hour difference adds to the uncertainty imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Icon and cmc is much further north We should feel really good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We should feel really good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We should feel really good about that. And ukie also It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. Yea, its not weenie urban legend...latent heat release from convective processes enhance upstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Having this not quite phase and be a srn special is still the bigger risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Having this not quite phase and be a srn special is still the bigger risk. I didn't say it wasn't. I was speaking in general terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't say it wasn't. I was speaking in general terms. Oh that wasn't meant for you directly...was just throwing it out there, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 My bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And ukie also It's coming Ukie out to hr 144 is in LA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Some of the models do show that low hanging around and waiting for another s/w to fly in after day 7-8. Would be neat to see that happen. 00z FV3 sort of shows this at hr 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And ukie also It's coming But Anthony, just 6 hours ago you said in the NYC forum, that it wasn’t looking good for a hit in NYC...due to teleconnections changing for the worse at the time of this potential system... now you say it’s coming??? What has changed in 6 hours to make you think this is all of a sudden coming...when we(SNE) are even significantly more north than NYC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But Anthony, just 6 hours ago you said in the NYC forum, that it wasn’t looking good for a hit in NYC...due to teleconnections changing for the worse at the time of this potential system... now you say it’s coming??? What has changed in 6 hours to make you think this is all of a sudden coming...when we(SNE) are even significantly more north than NYC?? And my Father wonders why I troll the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: And my Father wonders why I troll the weenies. lol ya, you love busting chops. But I was asking a serious question to Anthony....what has changed for him to change his tune?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is closer. Definitely a better H5 look. But boy is it complicated. Lots of s/w's flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a better H5 look. But boy is it complicated. Lots of s/w's flying around. Yea....I'll take it for now. The SW is at least intense enough on this run that you can fathom it sniffing us....not the case past couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS is an improvement too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is an improvement too. They both were even for WED threat, although I think it is a long shot of happening, still need to watch these type of shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: They both were even for WED threat, although I think it is a long shot of happening, still need to watch these type of shortwaves. Sorry make that Thursday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sorry make that Thursday now Too late for that. She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Would like to reinvigorate EPO in the long range. At least we continue the trend to move the vortex towards the Aleutians....small steps. I still like the last third of this month for a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Would like to reinvigorate EPO in the long range. At least we continue the trend to move the vortex towards the Aleutians....small steps. I still like the last third of this month for a lot of fun. Originally I was thinking post 12/25..but could be earlier if guidance like the GEFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Originally I was thinking post 12/25..but could be earlier if guidance like the GEFS is correct. GEFS going to try and pull the rug out from under everyone as a final hurrah before being replaced? Although I think there may be a delay in the ensemble system being replaced compared to the deterministic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 46 minutes ago, weathafella said: Would like to reinvigorate EPO in the long range. At least we continue the trend to move the vortex towards the Aleutians....small steps. I still like the last third of this month for a lot of fun. I love your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Too late for that. She gone. Perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Not buying gfs and son 2 low depiction, should consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not buying gfs and son 2 low depiction, should consolidate. I agree, it made a drastic change from 18z to 00z and then from 00z to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: And my Father wonders why I troll the weenies. Keep toeing the rubber Pedro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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