ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said: It’s based on very bright minds like Tom ( isotherm ) and HM and others. They simply don’t just rip and read eps like some do. Tom’s thoughts are on this forum. You are free to read then. I haven't but seen anything that says definitely less than 6 days instead of 10-14. Your free to paste it here though. Maybe I missed it. I definitely don't see it on the hemispheric pattern either but I'll admit I'm not expert on long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 IMO, the widely-modeled forecast development of an EPO+ would probably take 2 weeks or so to break down if past experience with the development of such patterns is representative. In 2002, it took about 4 weeks for the EPO+ to give way to a predominantly EPO- for the remainder of the winter. Right now, it doesn't look like an excessively warm pattern, but it will be milder than the pattern it succeeds. There may also be some snowfall prospects if the timing is right, but the first half of December excluding the mild 12/1-3 period will probably feature the coldest anomalies relative to normal overall. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How is that muted? It wasn’t ever a torch look, but that’s flooding the US with milder weather. This must’ve been a great stretch too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Sucks that it feels like snow outside, 31 degrees and a boatload of rain coming. Maybe brief ice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This must’ve been a great stretch too! And that was just the “warmup” for the main event in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Congrats Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How is that muted? It wasn’t ever a torch look, but that’s flooding the US with milder weather. Because, I don't see those yellow orange colors over my area and your area but more westward. I thought maybe that means a bit of a mute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, the widely-modeled forecast development of an EPO+ would probably take 2 weeks or so to break down if past experience with the development of such patterns is representative. In 2002, it took about 4 weeks for the EPO+ to give way to a predominantly EPO- for the remainder of the winter. Right now, it doesn't look like an excessively warm pattern, but it will be milder than the pattern it succeeds. There may also be some snowfall prospects if the timing is right, but the first half of December excluding the mild 12/1-3 period will probably feature the coldest anomalies relative to normal overall. Good post Don. Using 2002 also shows that things don't have to be doom and gloom for winter lovers ala December 2015 or 2006....despite the positive EPO, we did see some wintry events in New England (and even further south) during that period. We had 12/11, 12/15, and of course the 12/25 system. Even the 1/3/03 system was still during the +EPO regime. We got some east based blocking help for the Xmas storm and some Hudson Bay weakness for the early January storm. But those were enough to make the storms snowier...at least inland. I'll add that the temp averaged above normal during that longish period but it wasn't excessive clearly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, the widely-modeled forecast development of an EPO+ would probably take 2 weeks or so to break down if past experience with the development of such patterns is representative. In 2002, it took about 4 weeks for the EPO+ to give way to a predominantly EPO- for the remainder of the winter. Right now, it doesn't look like an excessively warm pattern, but it will be milder than the pattern it succeeds. There may also be some snowfall prospects if the timing is right, but the first half of December excluding the mild 12/1-3 period will probably feature the coldest anomalies relative to normal overall. Bingo. Nice post. As Will added, we can still get chances for snow as long as it’s not a brutal +EPO, but they usually have some residence time. It’s also climo to get these looks. So there is really no reason at all to fear a ratter based on this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: And that was just the “warmup” for the main event in March. Hook that month up to my veins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hook that month up to my veins. 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hook that month up to my veins. It was extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good post Don. Using 2002 also shows that things don't have to be doom and gloom for winter lovers ala December 2015 or 2006....despite the positive EPO, we did see some wintry events in New England (and even further south) during that period. We had 12/11, 12/15, and of course the 12/25 system. Even the 1/3/03 system was still during the +EPO regime. We got some east based blocking help for the Xmas storm and some Hudson Bay weakness for the early January storm. But those were enough to make the storms snowier...at least inland. I'll add that the temp averaged above normal during that longish period but it wasn't excessive clearly. 2002-03 was a very good winter, even during the EPO+ period. I am continuing to look forward to what lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Our big southern branch of the jet stream storm is brewing at 150 hours out on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Ryan’s channel Just indicated that there will be a big coastal storm coming up the coast towards New England next weekend...but they say as of now it looks to stay out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel Just indicated that there will be a big coastal storm coming up the coast towards New England next weekend...but they say as of now it looks to stay out to sea... And the pope says warm cutter. Who’s your money on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said: Call him Daddy?? Looks like my Daddy can’t lose. Could be 60’s or it could snow!! Wow, bold call!!!! But whatever the weeklies call for we run with!!! You have an unhealthy fixation with scooter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You have an unhealthy fixation with scooter Is there such a thing as a healthy fixation...with scooter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is there such a thing as a healthy fixation...with scooter? The one I had in Feb 2015 was pretty damn healthy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The one I had in Feb 2015 was pretty damn healthy.. True, playing pati cake naked in the backyard together was deemed appropriate for that month only. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro primed to deliver a Miller A bomb..inside of I 495 would struggle with that crap high position, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That PNA ridge is not only more stout this run, but in the quintessential perfect spot...right up through Idaho and MT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Yea, that’s nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro primed to deliver a Miller A bomb.. Done. Is it miller A? Arguable it’s s result of northern stream but I just looked quick. Consensus for a big event next weekend is growing from this still long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Done. Is it miller A? Arguable it’s s result of northern stream but I just looked quick. Consensus for a big event next weekend is growing from this still long range. I'll look again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll look again..... Yea, that's a s streamer STJ system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I'd take that EURO run verbatim...JP run for me.....H7 and CF. Keep that high sliding east, but first things first...lets keep the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take that EURO run verbatim...JP run for me.....H7 and CF. Keep that high sliding east, but first things first...lets keep the storm. High sliding east....I’d take high holding tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Woke up by call from work and saw the radar up north, congrats Dendrite in case he missed it before the switch when he wakes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take that EURO run verbatim...JP run for me.....H7 and CF. Keep that high sliding east, but first things first...lets keep the storm. Congrats Bobalouie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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