CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Fwiw day 9 is a tasty 500 look. It’s stupid to comment this far out, but that’s about all we got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 A few flakes falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 So exactly, What is Zach popping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Zach’s Pop said: Lol you have been saying that for 7 days. Right ... seven days ago, he was talking about week 3 ... now, he's talking about week 2 - see how that works? But...just ball bustin' I wanna believe it - I really do... but, the warm up here in the nearer term slated for Sunday was originally, three weeks or so ago... indexed to be the same sort of big warm up to end Novie and head into December. As it came into range... we do the quick warm sector. We actually see this a lot in the spring ..ironically... where in late April, the models start flagging the season's first 10 day apocalyps... actually, come to think about it .. the models/indices start that behavior toward the end of February in years that aren't getting a late savior by a -NAO... Anyway, so as they near ... the 3 to 5 days of huge anomaly shrinks down to an 18 hour dirty warm sector and this did exactly the same thing. I need a compelling reason to assess this next series won't end up the same way. Mind you, ...I'm just going seasonal trend and owning to known model/index biases. There may be a big warm up out there... watch it be a January thaw. or whatever... I don't really have any horses in the race on this, but I'm interesting in just how relaxed the pattern will be before (I suspect) it reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: A few flakes falling now. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, weathafella said: Mine hates winter. Spent most of his life in California.... Mine is a surfer, skier who has a home business booming making and selling house numbers and signs made from driftwood. He got his artistic side from his Mom. I dont know what Scott sees but I am not seeing anything stable in AK at all, definitely not a black hole. Lots of hype over a reshuffle. ImHO this week or so period will be forgotten when we look back. We mute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: A few flakes falling now. We covered the ground today, perfect end to a highly anomalous cold month. Coldest last 3 weeks in current ORH history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Can we lock a mix of the Euro and 18 Z GFS 15 in please, TY in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sorry, Will that wording was too strong. Silly of me. ...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Can we lock a mix of the Euro and 18 Z GFS 15 in please, TY in advance Yea, I’ve blended them in our forecast and alerted subscribers for an early grocery run already. Locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I think we have too many arctic s/w's in the flow right now coming out of the Arctic due to the presence of the polar vortex on our side of the hemisphere and due to the -AO. Cold air shots with each passing arctic front, one of these energetic disturbances will set off a winter storm. I think one will at least dig enough southeastward to get a storm off the Cape Cod coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think we have too many arctic s/w's in the flow right now coming out of the Arctic due to the presence of the polar vortex on our side of the hemisphere and due to the -AO. Cold air shots with each passing arctic front, one of these energetic disturbances will set off a winter storm. I think one will at least dig enough southeastward to get a storm off the Cape Cod coastline. Or....right over Cape Cod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Mine is a surfer, skier who has a home business booming making and selling house numbers and signs made from driftwood. He got his artistic side from his Mom. I dont know what Scott sees but I am not seeing anything stable in AK at all, definitely not a black hole. Lots of hype over a reshuffle. ImHO this week or so period will be forgotten when we look back. We mute You don't see massive Blue from Canadian NW to Kamchatka? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: We covered the ground today, perfect end to a highly anomalous cold month. Coldest last 3 weeks in current ORH history Forgettable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Forgettable. Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable. Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow. Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable. Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow. Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here The further we go into December, the cooler the SSTs will be a climate will be in our favor to receive snow on Cape Cod. I think the December 9th system is possible, but I am not giving up on the December 5th potential as there are a lot of arctic shortwaves present, one will amplify and explode as 850mb delta ts will exceed 30C over the Gulf Stream, allowing explosive cyclogenesis to occur off the NJ coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable. Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow. Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here The last two weeks could have used a little something. The November event was excellent, just wish we could have added a couple. I'm well aware of climo, but we also had a winter climo last two weeks, so it was possible. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I don't expect anyone to ever tell me to not be optimistic about a chance for a storm to develop, its just not in my nature to take things slowly and not care. I see positive trends in the guidance for the next two weeks of weather, perhaps aiding on the side of cold and snowy. The rather prolonged -AO means the Arctic is open for fresh cold air masses to infiltrate as far south as the 38N latitude line. That should bode well for at least a shot at one or two nor'easters, Miller B snowstorm type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Our southern stream shortwave is coming onshore the Pacific Northwest US right now, and will be fully sampled for 12z tomorrow morning. The arctic shortwaves will not be sampled until 3 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Forgettable. AEMATT only 800% of normal snow here, top 5 coldest here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: AEMATT only 800% of normal snow here, top 5 coldest here I think for most of SNE. It was fun, but are you going to sit back and tell your kids about it? Maybe up in NNE for sure. Now that is a month to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think for most of SNE. It was fun, but are you going to sit back and tell your kids about it? Maybe up in NNE for sure. Now that is a month to remember. Yes I will, totally impressed for Nov. Right up there with 68 87 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes I will, totally impressed for Nov. Right up there with 68 87 89 I salute you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I salute you. Please list your Novembers to remember. Sorry you missed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 While we had a very active (Wet) several months of weather , who besides central - S California has been very dry is it it legit to wonder if the pattern reverses or would this just tend to go back to “ normal” given any clues from ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 These next 16 days will be very forgettable if the 18z GFS verifies. A little over 0.5" qpf, 90% of which falls on Sunday, and after Monday near normal temps for my hood during the period. Will finish the leaf harvesting tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Please list your Novembers to remember. Sorry you missed out. I had as much as you did. Hey I don't regret it, but could have capitalized more. I don't see that as unreasonable. Like i said before, some years we have nothing until Jan..so I appreciate Novie snow. I'm also looking ahead and not seeing anything to exciting except for day 9 fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: These next 16 days will be very forgettable if the 18z GFS verifies. A little over 0.5" qpf, 90% of which falls on Sunday, and after Monday near normal temps for my hood during the period. Will finish the leaf harvesting tomorrow. You are talking about the possibility that an Operational GFS run of the 18z hour being correct for 16 days, come on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You are talking about the possibility that an Operational GFS run of the 18z hour being correct for 16 days, come on. Aren't you the one posting day 14 blizzards? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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