WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12/5 is DOA Thanks. Next! 0-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 CMC likes #2. Too bad the model smells like #2. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Expecting it on the front end to start here anyways before we flip. Perhaps a short-lived .5" before a flip on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Perhaps a short-lived .5" before a flip on the coast. Probably and a sloppy inch or so back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC likes #2. Too bad the model smells like #2. There's going to be a lot of angry weenies if everyone goes 0-2 before the mild break hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12z GFS will deliver #2, Coastal peeps may not like it, But its like 9-10 days out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: There's going to be a lot of angry weenies if everyone goes 0-2 before the mild break hits. Yep...but we've seen this before...I remember this happening in 2010-2011....we had a good cold period the first 3 weeks of December, but it was interrupted by a brutal cutter surrounded by a bunch of whiffs....forum was ready to meltdown by 12/20....but then we got a retro-surprise on 12/2-21 that blasted the Cape and gave the eastern half of SNE a few inches...and then of course the Boxing Day positive bust from 48-60 hours out. Then of course, we have some years where December is totally shot...not uncommon in El Ninos...but thankfully I don't think that will happen this year even if we do get a bit of a break mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Let’s focus on the better and bigger potential now and will it to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I think that arctic shortwave phases in with the Pacific shortwave rather than not make it at all for the 5th of DEC storm. I don't have confidence in either direction at this moment with any solution regarding the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 #2 is still post truncation at this point so we watch, We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12/5 is DOA Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think that arctic shortwave phases in with the Pacific shortwave rather than not make it at all for the 5th of DEC storm. I don't have confidence in either direction at this moment with any solution regarding the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Realist vs Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Realist vs Weenie How is that being a realist? A realist would say the chance for a storm still exists, just because the models lose the solution 4-6 days out, does not mean it won't come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 #1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How is that being a realist? A realist would say the chance for a storm still exists, just because the models lose the solution 4-6 days out, does not mean it won't come back. The reality is, No guidance shows this as affecting the Northeast and its getting to be inside day 5, Odds are pretty low at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hugger Well there's our 0-2. But honestly that's just as much of a fantasy this far out as a full blown blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The reality is, No guidance shows this as affecting the Northeast and its getting to be inside day 5, Odds are pretty low at this point. History does not agree with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: The reality is, No guidance shows this as affecting the Northeast and its getting to be inside day 5, Odds are pretty low at this point. Yeah, odds are like under 10% for that storm to turn up the coast. If the odds were 50% or greater, it'd be worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, odds are like under 10% for that storm to turn up the coast. If the odds were 50% or greater, it'd be worth tracking. The flow is fast and progressive, I don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, odds are like under 10% for that storm to turn up the coast. If the odds were 50% or greater, it'd be worth tracking. You know it only takes one cycle of model runs to change the course of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: The flow is fast and progressive, I don't see it happening. realist vs weenieist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You know it only takes one cycle of model runs to change the course of this system. Invest away but "It ain't happening, James" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: realist vs weenieist You know most of our storms that happen are like this in this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Invest away but "It ain't happening, James" Oh I am not investing in this storm, but I won't be investing in the hugger either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Oye vey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 It will be embarrasing if we go 0 for 2 with a cutter before the warm up! Watch it happen but we luck out with an event during the mild period like the snow storm last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh I am not investing in this storm, but I won't be investing in the hugger either. Its probably time to go measure a sand dune. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its probably time to go measure a sand dune. Yeah luckily I am very close to a sand dune 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, Albert A Clipper said: How does the first storm, or not, impact the chances of the second storm? Or does it have zero bearing on the set-up? There is enough time between systems that neither impact one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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