BristowWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not expecting any kind of sig event through the first 10-15 days of Dec. Anything strong and organized is most likely going to be more wet than white. Which is completely normal in any December. First half of the month rarely if ever has a widespread warning level event. Still a big fight with temps due to climo. Advisory and/or mixed events are usually the best our area can eek out. I do believe the chances are above normal for a decent event sometime during Dec though. I also believe the chances of widespread panic are above normal as the days go by with no blizzards showing up on long range ops. There will be a lot of teleconnection discussions I’m sure. Still 10-15 days into December is a tough call even for the best of the best like yourself. Not sure anyone can predict what will happen that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What system, Chuck? Clipper day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, Scud said: Clipper day 7 I think most...it not all of that is from the system tomorrow and TT's algorithm. But, something to keep an eye on while we wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I think most...it not all of that is from the system tomorrow and TT's algorithm. But, something to keep an eye on while we wait.... Tomorrow is ZR- risk of IP-, most of the heavy snow is from the NW flow event days 3-6 combined with clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I wonder if we can get some "surprise" snow while the experts look for the perfect epic pattern 30 days out? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: There will be a lot of teleconnection discussions I’m sure. Still 10-15 days into December is a tough call even for the best of the best like yourself. Not sure anyone can predict what will happen that far out. Yea, no way to predict anything discrete that far down the road. It's a nice combo with enso + no torch pattern. That's the highest odds combo for our area to get snow. The pac jet hitting the northern west coast during December in a nino is pretty normal too. When the pna turns positive the storm track off the pac shifts southward and that's when our area has better odds at a larger event. We can still get a miller As with storms entering the pac nw but it's not as common and requires a lot to go right. Once Socal starts getting rain the odds get better here for a large event. Its nearly a lock that the storm track will take aim on socal this winter with a +pna over the top of it. The nice thing is we already had a legit accum event. Takes away some of the manic paranoia that sets in when winters don't produce until Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...the 12z gfs lost it and happy hour brought it back . I think the next couple days will go back and forth. I think if it breaks right maybe a small to modest event to keep this early winter rollin is certainly within the realm . Not even Dec 1st and already a legit WSW event and a WWA tonight...though, my expectations are pretty low. I feel like if we can score something...anything, while the pattern is not perfect it would be a good sign as we head into better climo. Those great winters tend to do that.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not expecting any kind of sig event through the first 10-15 days of Dec. Anything strong and organized is most likely going to be more wet than white. Which is completely normal in any December. First half of the month rarely if ever has a widespread warning level event. Still a big fight with temps due to climo. Advisory and/or mixed events are usually the best our area can eek out. I do believe the chances are above normal for a decent event sometime during Dec though. I also believe the chances of widespread panic are above normal as the days go by with no blizzards showing up on long range ops. Let’s chat in 2 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 GEFS continues to advertise significant PV perturbation heading into early December. Pretty impressive warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 FV 3 still has next Friday's light snow event but GFS doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 For anyone like me that needs an easy to understand jargon translation of some of the polar vortex talk in this thread. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/climate-dynamics/seasonal-weather-forecasts/polar-vortex-impact-winter-weather/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: FV 3 still has next Friday's light snow event but GFS doesn't. UK most aggressive at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Long way out obviously and it's been very clear that the models have struggled with the Pacific, but you never want to see BN heights in AK if you're rooting for cold and snow here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Long way out obviously and it's been very clear that the models have struggled with the Pacific, but you never want to see BN heights in AK if you're rooting for cold and snow here. Really down playing the EPO ridge and breaking it down quicker then what we have seen setting up on prior runs. Probably not worth worrying about too much unless we see future runs start heading in this direction as well because it is just as likely to be an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really down playing the EPO ridge and breaking it down quicker then what we have seen setting up on prior runs. Probably not worth worrying about too much unless we see future runs start heading in this direction as well because it is just as likely to be an off run. I can’t see the EPS past D10, but I heard it was similar? As of yesterday’s 12z at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I can’t see the EPS past D10, but I heard it was similar? As of yesterday’s 12z at least. It is. Hopefully it's wrong. Or only a short lived phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I can’t see the EPS past D10, but I heard it was similar? As of yesterday’s 12z at least. Just glanced at that. And yes it does break down the EPO. But it was never as aggressive as the GEFS with that feature to begin with so I am not sure what the takeaway here is. Have liked the GEFS better in the longer ranges especially when it has come to the pattern shifts being seen at higher latitudes but maybe the EPS is leading the way here. So I guess what I am saying is, 'Guess we will see in 2 weeks'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: lol You came out of hiatus to contribute "lol" You are lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: You came out of hiatus to contribute "lol" You are lol. I finally came out of the woodwork. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Looking at all the current guidance, the reality is Dec will probably be pretty changeable. Still have to think the NPAC will get "right" at some point. AO looks good for now. I don't see much to worry over yet. This is a relatively late starting Nino (compared to say 2009 when official Nino status was achieved by August IIRC), so just a guess on my part, but it may take some time before the atmosphere completely responds and locks into more typical Nino behavior. Most of the winter forecasts were indicative of that, with things really getting going in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 #uhoh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, mattie g said: #uhoh It's happening! Pick up any Bourbon County Stouts yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: lol The Western Atlantic Ridge, for the second year in a row is ridiculously strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's happening! Pick up any Bourbon County Stouts yet? Haha...see my post in banter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 is anyone interested in the wave that is heading towards the mid atlantic friday. If it dosent shear out--we could see some light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It is. Hopefully it's wrong. Or only a short lived phenomenon. Is that something that could ruin even an El Niño winter? (Now you said the only duds in the weak-moderate nino years were because of a +AO....anything else that could sink things?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is that something that could ruin even an El Niño winter? (Now you said the only duds in the weak-moderate nino years were because of a +AO....anything else that could sink things?) Well you figure with the Hadley Cells somewhat beefed up as such the Conus would flood with humid PAC air in the event of a mature el nino/AK vortex combo. This is lethal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It is. Hopefully it's wrong. Or only a short lived phenomenon. Isn't this typical December Nino look tho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Really down playing the EPO ridge and breaking it down quicker then what we have seen setting up on prior runs. Probably not worth worrying about too much unless we see future runs start heading in this direction as well because it is just as likely to be an off run. Visitor from the SE forum here. I am obviously uneducated, but I was curious, even with the BN heights in Alaska, isn't it also showing forecasting BN heights in the East. And isn't that a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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