November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'd expect forecasts to adjust as the mjo signals improve.

eta: One thing to look out for is the phase 1 weak warm signal for OND. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Remember, it's still +PNA now where it's been since July. It's very unlikely that we go into such an extreme RNA pattern. Models sometimes have a bias here. Although with RNA they sometimes don't. It doesn't fit though. 

[Chris78]

Man, the GEFS and GEPS are both ugly at the end of there runs.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I highly doubt it. because of El Nino. 

[Scud]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Man, the GEFS and GEPS are both ugly at the end of there runs.

Everything is ugly, at the end of the run.....

[frd]

19 minutes ago, Scud said:

Everything is ugly, at the end of the run.....

There goes the snow cover with that look, and if so, a major set back.   

However, I doubt the warmer / ugly pattern would hold, even if it were to develop based on the Nino. 

Plus, there are some hits on the PV and other things going on, no need to be concened yet. 

I did post here last week that many time the models that are going cold for December will reverse when we get closer and correct to a more climo based neutral to warmer December, simply because of Nino and the past history.  

 

  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Kind of a bummer this coming-out-of-negNAO storm will be riding all the way up through the Midwest. 

[Zach’s Pop]

39 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Man, the GEFS and GEPS are both ugly at the end of there runs.

Yea I hate when it’s cold in December 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, Scud said:

Everything is ugly, at the end of the run.....

As long as the AO doesn't rage positive...no time for panic, right @psuhoffman? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Been my experience that ensembles tend to have a very flat, zonal flow to them most of the time when you go way out in time.  And 16 days is WAY out in time.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Been my experience that ensembles tend to have a very flat, zonal flow to them most of the time when you go way out in time.  And 16 days is WAY out in time.

I've also noticed that day 16 ensemble is always 16 days away...strange

[Scud]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Been my experience that ensembles tend to have a very flat, zonal flow to them most of the time when you go way out in time.  And 16 days is WAY out in time.

And every one said amen.....

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Remember, it's still +PNA now where it's been since July. It's very unlikely that we go into such an extreme RNA pattern. Models sometimes have a bias here. Although with RNA they sometimes don't. It doesn't fit though. 

What's RNA?

[WEATHER53]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What's RNA?

Required Negative Attitude 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Required Negative Attitude 

Here's a closer answer with some science basis. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170406171917.htm

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What's RNA?

-PNA

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, frd said:

There goes the snow cover with that look, and if so, a major set back.   

However, I doubt the warmer / ugly pattern would hold, even if it were to develop based on the Nino. 

Plus, there are some hits on the PV and other things going on, no need to be concened yet. 

I did post here last week that many time the models that are going cold for December will reverse when we get closer and correct to a more climo based neutral to warmer December, simply because of Nino and the past history.  

 

  

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

Trough in the Gulf of Alaska is actually our best pattern for snow. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

We'll see what the EPS does today, but the GEFS isn't really moving the +EPO torch any closer in time.  Stuck around D13.  If we're going to torch, I'd rather we do it and get it over with, but I wonder if this will just get muted as we get closer in time and just end up with a couple day mild period and a reshuffle.  Weeklies will probably look FUGLY for weeks 3 and 4 tonight given the black hole over AK at the end of last night's EPS.  

 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We'll see what the EPS does today, but the GEFS isn't really moving the +EPO torch any closer in time.  Stuck around D13.  If we're going to torch, I'd rather we do it and get it over with, but I wonder if this will just get muted as we get closer in time and just end up with a couple day mild period and a reshuffle.  Weeklies will probably look FUGLY for weeks 3 and 4 tonight given the black hole over AK at the end of last night's EPS.  

 

We'll most likely go through a "rough patch" during December but when don't we? lol. The last 10 days of the month is the beginning of our prime climo so if things are going to stink for a time then sooner the better. I'm not seeing the +EPO/GOA trough as any kind of ominous sign and thats if it even happens at all. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll most likely go through a "rough patch" during December but when don't we? lol. The last 10 days of the month is the beginning of our prime climo so if things are going to stink for a time then sooner the better. I'm not seeing the +EPO/GOA trough as any kind of ominous sign and thats if it even happens at all. 

All major seasonal forcing factors are working against a big trough setting up shop there.  So it shouldn't be long-term even if it arrives.  

But I'd like to get it over and done with so we can get some cold air and storm chances in the post-Dec 20th time period.  

[Scud]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

In the words of REM, I'm losing  my religion...

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

The timing of the mjo wave possibly leading to a temporary +epo actually isn't a bad one if we roll it forward towards xmas. Assuming we see the same mjo cycle we have the last 3/4 waves within a week the forcing would become more favorable and that trough near AK could retrograde into a favorable location. That could Time up the next cold period with the holidays. We have the low end threat of a wave type system during the coming -epo period. After that maybe a temporary relax but the AO still doesn't look to go very positive. I see no reason to be all that worried about winter right now. People seem to forget what things usually look like right now. It's still way too early to be worried about lack of results. Especially when most of us are already on the board. 

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Trough in the Gulf of Alaska is actually our best pattern for snow. 

That's kind of a "conditional" thing. Yet the analog composite of our big snows show a trough there. But most of those are later in winter. And if you look earlier then it usually shows that the trough there is a new feature as the longwave pattern over the Conus breaks down following blocking. And if you roll the pattern forward you see that often a week after our big snows it gets warm. So yea a trough there given the right conditions won't kill a short term threat. But it's not a good thing for sustained cold and it's more problematic early in the season when getting a cold source is more important. 

[yoda]

12z EPS at 240 h5 looks fine to me... nothing great... ORH has said in the SNE forum that it is ugly after.  Hopefully we can steal a storm beforehand... just a nice refresher of like 1-2"

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The timing of the mjo wave possibly leading to a temporary +epo actually isn't a bad one if we roll it forward towards xmas. Assuming we see the same mjo cycle we have the last 3/4 waves within a week the forcing would become more favorable and that trough near AK could retrograde into a favorable location. That could Time up the next cold period with the holidays. We have the low end threat of a wave type system during the coming -epo period. After that maybe a temporary relax but the AO still doesn't look to go very positive. I see no reason to be all that worried about winter right now. People seem to forget what things usually look like right now. It's still way too early to be worried about lack of results. Especially when most of us are already on the board. 

Uncanny, how similar this most recent progression is to the last one....almost right on top of the last movement thru 8-1-2.  As the season wears on, this should produce better and better results as far as sensible weather goes....especially phase 2

[frd]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EPS at 240 h5 looks fine to me... nothing great... ORH has said in the SNE forum that it is ugly after.  Hopefully we can steal a storm beforehand... just a nice refresher of like 1-2"

You know there have been times where after a warm-up in the first to second weeks of December there was a marked transition to colder and significant snowfall in the third and fourth weeks of December.

Not saying that will happen, but timing is going to be interesting as we roll over the pattern and see what the weather does closer to the holidays. 

 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Uncanny, how similar this most recent progression is to the last one....almost right on top of the last movement thru 8-1-2.  As the season wears on, this should produce better and better results as far as sensible weather goes....especially phase 2

I believe it was 02-03 where things progressed so exactly that HM was able to hit windows of snowfall and threats far out in the distance. 

Speaking of the MJO and SSTs I watched Weatherbell this AM. and saw the SST profile West of Aussie and it is still the same with the colder SSTs. 

Also, saw an animation on the Nino region SSTs,  and while you hear about the warmer anomalies are shifting East the actual SST warmer temps and sub surface depth has the real focus still being Central Pac based.  So, those areas are looking good. 

   

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That's kind of a "conditional" thing. Yet the analog composite of our big snows show a trough there. But most of those are later in winter. And if you look earlier then it usually shows that the trough there is a new feature as the longwave pattern over the Conus breaks down following blocking. And if you roll the pattern forward you see that often a week after our big snows it gets warm. So yea a trough there given the right conditions won't kill a short term threat. But it's not a good thing for sustained cold and it's more problematic early in the season when getting a cold source is more important. 

Yeah, I see so many +PNA's not work out unless it's January..