WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month. Isn't that the AO predictor that Bob is always talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m on mobile so I can’t show pictures easily, but look at the end of the GEFS and you can sort of see how we don’t get stuck in some sort of endless torch from hell. The features to watch are the lobe of the TPV near Kamchatka (which has only just started showing up on the GEFS at least) and the TPV that moves into western AK. They drive the Aleutian ridge down to nothing and you see them starting to want to merge at the very end. IF the TPV over AK continues rotating westward and combines with the Kamchatka one, then suddenly that’s our new aleutian low, which drives the PNA back up and sends a trough back to us. Certainly possible. It's not a god awful look. The AO continues to want to be favorable. Keep that and sooner or later you would think things will line up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Isn't that the AO predictor that Bob is always talking about? Sort of. We need -1.25 monthly mean or lower for it to be significant. Data supports an 75%+/- chance at above normal snowfall and blocking to persist through Feb. The years that broke the wrong was had a terrible Pac though so it's not a slam dunk but certainly a good sign seeing a persistent -AO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sort of. We need -1.25 monthly mean or lower for it to be significant. Data supports an 75%+/- chance at above normal snowfall and blocking to persist through Feb. The years that broke the wrong was had a terrible Pac though so it's not a slam dunk but certainly a good sign seeing a persistent -AO right now. Pretty clear phase change in the AO since around Oct 22. No sign that changes really in the next 14 days. Fingers crossed it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 The storm (possible) around the day 10-12 time frame certainly looks to be worth watching. It's showing up in some form all over the gfs ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Another poor puppy 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pretty clear phase change in the AO since around Oct 22. No sign that changes really in the next 14 days. Fingers crossed it continues. I'm pretty optimistic. I'll have to dig through the spreadsheets to get hard #s but going off memory, a strong blocking event in late Nov or early Dec is the more common "kickoff" to a -AO winter. 12z GEFS shows a way to avoid a shutout pattern while the pac goes to hell. Decent setup for confluence and high pressure to the north late in the panels. Won't be uber cold if that type of look verifies but just having a typical/marginal HP in a good spot can work in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I was trying to make this point earlier. Although the PAC isn't great, we don't have the Atlantic contributing to a catastrophe. AO actually looks good IMO through the period. I really do think we're seeing the reshuffle/relaxation before we really see the Nino atmospheric response that would propel us into extended wintry periods in early 2019. If the PAC were flipping and we were staring down a huge shift in the Atlantic and a stable PV, I'd be worried. But that's not what I'm seeing so I have zero concerns whatsoever. Well none other than a brown Christmas, but at this point I'm not really into looking further than two weeks. I'll be starting my two week outlooks soon. Can't wait Agree. People let the lack of snow on Xmas (which happens 90%+) effect their opinion of winter way too much early in the season. Same for the whole month since people want snow around the holidays but our climo says that's always a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree. People let the lack of snow on Xmas (which happens 90%+) effect their opinion of winter way too much early in the season. Same for the whole month since people want snow around the holidays but our climo says that's always a long shot. Euro control on the weeklies yesterday has a white Christmas Eve and Day. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control on the weeklies yesterday has a white Christmas Eve and Day. I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. I don't think you're going to get many takers on this one my friend lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. Sorry, I'm going to have to decline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I'd love a legit Christmas snowstorm, but no way I'm passing up on a winter with this type of potential and hype for one storm in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. Hard pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Inthepines said: Hard pass Welcome to the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Welcome to the forum Thanks! Ive been around in one form or another since the wright-weather days and even before that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 What a -AO coming up. Look at the snowcover, it's approaching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control on the weeklies yesterday has a white Christmas Eve and Day. I love when you talk dirty sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I'll wait for the Euro two week weeklies before i say this messy PAC pattern improves chances for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. Agree. 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro (from what I can see) has the storm at day 10, but looks much warmer than the GFS and looks like a cutter. Anybody with access want to back that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll consider this winter a rousing success if we get a solid warning criteria event regionwide for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. I'll gladly sacrifice the rest of winter for a 6" - 10" event that sticks around until the 28th or so. It's so rare in these parts that it would make my criteria as an anomalous event. I’d punt 1-15 Dec and March 15th onward for that scenario. The whole winter is a tough sell however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro (from what I can see) has the storm at day 10, but looks much warmer than the GFS and looks like a cutter. Anybody with access want to back that up? Coming out slow on weatherbell. Only out to 30 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Coming out slow on weatherbell. Only out to 30 hr. It's all the way out on TT already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: It's all the way out on TT already Thanks for telling us it's all the way out and no actual information or confirmation of WinterWxluvr's question. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Thanks for telling us it's all the way out and no actual information or confirmation of WinterWxluvr's question. Looking at the ensembles on TT and they have some promise for the Dec 8-10 time frame. WEatherbell is starting to throw out panels now so should get a better idea when post day 10 comes up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just an FYI, there were some issues with the Euro coming in across all platforms, including AWIPS. They have since been resolved and the data is being disseminated everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the ensembles on TT and they have some promise for the Dec 8-10 time frame. WEatherbell is starting to throw out panels now so should get a better idea when post day 10 comes up. I dunno. Day 10 on the Euro looks like a fat Lakes Cutter. Hopefully the Ensembles are vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now