NorthArlington101 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I see Will says that the EPS day 9 and 10 look nothing like the OP in the SNE forum... anybody concur? It's a solid signal for a coastal. Lot of southern hits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: ha! There is no way (in terms of manpower and computer resources) to do the complete set of retrospective testing and evaluation that needs to be done (much of the past 3 years were rerun with the FV3GFS and assessed as part of the validation) for both the GFS and GEFS systems concurrently. thanks for the explanation. I figured it quite an undertaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Looking at the members its honestly all over the place. A fair amount of southern sliders. Felt like I had to share the control. Perfect snowfall distribution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Yeah EPS nothing like the op. Good signal for a coastal. Between the GEFS and EPS, it looks like the spread is more of a timing difference than sorting out between cutters and coastals. EPS did follow the op on the 5th with a flatter low, but both are not far from a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: given our maturity level I am not sure your way of describing your way of describing is suitable for this thread. Maybe we need a new thread! Radio show and storm mode should be implemented ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass " 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Icon still likes the 5th... iirc, the icon was pretty firm with the follow up wave that became our Nov snow storm... What does it mean? Nothing probably.. LolSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Icon still likes the 5th... iirc, the icon was pretty firm with the follow up wave that became our Nov snow storm... What does it mean? Nothing probably.. Lol Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Better than being suppressed like canned ham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass " I’ve been following HM forever as well. Let’s just hope he didn’t mean “ass bad”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass " Lol that's Ji asking him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Happy hour GFS is right where we want it for Dec 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 18z GFS gets d5 system closer to coast. Precip fields not there yet. D9-10 storm, More better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this . I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) . I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass " Is he talking about mid-late December or mid-to-late January being awesome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Happy hour GFS is right where we want it for Dec 9th. Where it enters the west coast and progresses across the south has mid Atlantic winter storm written all over it. The progression was a thing of beauty for 9 days out. Now if we can just get this look to under 5 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is he talking about mid-late December or mid-to-late January being awesome? I think he means January. I know people don't want to wait...and we have a real shot at snow the next 2 weeks, but when winter is over if we get several warning level events in the nino favored period from mid January on then almost everyone will be happy regardless of a warmer period around the holidays if it comes to that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Where'd the warmup go on the 18z gfs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he means January. I know people don't want to wait...and we have a real shot at snow the next 2 weeks, but when winter is over if we get several warning level events in the nino favored period from mid January on then almost everyone will be happy regardless of a warmer period around the holidays if it comes to that. Huh. I figured he meant December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Where it enters the west coast and progresses across the south has mid Atlantic winter storm written all over it. The progression was a thing of beauty for 9 days out. Now if we can just get this look to under 5 days.... That would be one of those rare epic all cold powder snow events that you would just watch the radar for hours and not have to worry if it went down like that...if is the key word 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Huh. I figured he meant December Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Lot of nice solutions on the Gefs for the day 9/10 storm . Yea, looks good. Majority are either a solid hit or southern slider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Fv3 in lock step with the operational,also showing a close miss to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: I’ve been following HM forever as well. Let’s just hope he didn’t mean “ass bad”. Based on the conversation and his other posts I think he means, bad as in deep winter,cold and snow. and think he is referring to the end of December. Almost seems that he shares the same weather/pattern drivers, globally and strat-wise, as does Tom, @Isotherm . If he and Tom are correct expect a very short relaxation period and then a stormy, white holiday period and beyond That was my interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Latest edition of the EPS weeklies- biggest takeaway is the AK trough retros back towards the Aleutians latter third of Dec. -EPO for beginning of Jan. Fwiw of course. I just have a feeling this advertised 'warm' period may be a bit overdone on the ensembles and will be pretty short lived. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Speaking of short relax period, tonight’s euro weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Huh. I figured he meant December Could be I just took the "mid month" part and since the relax looks to start around dec 13/14th it would be kind of ambitious to think we dive into a kick ass pattern within a few days to qualify as mid month. So I figured he meant by mid January. But perhaps he just wasn't being that precise with timing and references to it. Either way I'm good with what he is selling. When it's over if I get a few more warning events and beat climo I will be ecstatic regardless of exactly when the snow came. I'm not that picky about my frozen water!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Latest edition of the EPS weeklies- biggest takeaway is the AK trough retros back towards the Aleutians latter third of Dec. -EPO for beginning of Jan. Fwiw of course. I just have a feeling this warm period may be a bit overdone on the ensembles and will be pretty short lived. We shall see. Wasn't didn't they overdo it for Thanksgiving too? Lol (until we got closer to it, that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Speaking of short relax period, tonight’s euro weeklies. Does exactly what you outlined as our ideal solution. Vortex retrogrades and a week later it's game on again. Keep up the prognostications. While we're at it who you got on the line tonight and take the over??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just throwing this out there. Per DT (WxRisk) "Cold pattern breaks down after Dec 10-11..Mild for December 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wasn't didn't they overdo it for Thanksgiving too? Lol (until we got closer to it, that is) Probably. Too lazy to go back and look. The latest weeklies make me think my perception that the AK trough was retrograding some at the end of the latest EPS run wasn't just a hallucination lol. Decent chance this mild period will be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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