yoda Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z ICON is a perfect track/evolution for the 5th event. Best case scenario. Yup... 1-3 is nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z ICON is a perfect track/evolution for the 5th event. Best case scenario. Looks a lot like Euro. Taps Atlantic moisture jus as it is pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup... 1-3 is nice to see Not somuch what it shows verbatim QPF wise but the track/transfer happens entirely to our south. That's a pretty good solution. It's not all that cold leading in so any slp track that approaches to our west pretty much kills any chance at snow. I don't trust the solution but it shows how it can work here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This relates to the nino discussion. No idea who beccalynch4 on twitter is but she seems to be the source of 90% of the "it's not a modoki" talk and from her posts she doesn't seem to have any idea what she is talking about. I posted a retort to as many of her posts as I could but she is flooding twitter with repetitive crap in every thread about the nino status. Not sure what her agenda is but she obviously has one. It was actually her tweets that prompted my question yesterday, lol Yeah I'm not sure what her angle is...I mean I asked her point blank whether she was a snow lover or a snow loather...she said "neither" and that she was tired of hype forecasting, basically--But, if that's the case, she goes about it in a rather obnoxious way...bent on "proving hypers wrong", and not much info in between (for example: a few months ago she was claiming there wasn't gonna be any el Niño and that it was gonna fizzle...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not somuch what it shows verbatim QPF wise but the track/transfer happens entirely to our south. That's a pretty good solution. It's not all that cold leading in so any slp track that approaches to our west pretty much kills any chance at snow. I don't trust the solution but it shows how it can work here. Very nice run. Let's keep the trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 29 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Thanks psu...reading her twitter feed was like nails down a chalkboard. She certainly thinks highly of herself and likes to play twitter police with everyone else. I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games. Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 FWIW, 12z GGEM is a southern slider (TN/NC/S VA) for Dec 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games. Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps. As always--thank you for bringing some clarity to this! P.S. Is it shifting east currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It was actually her tweets that prompted my question yesterday, lol Yeah I'm not sure what her angle is...I mean I asked her point blank whether she was a snow lover or a snow loather...she said "neither" and that she was tired of hype forecasting, basically--But, if that's the case, she goes about it in a rather obnoxious way...bent on "proving hypers wrong", and not much info in between (for example: a few months ago she was claiming there wasn't gonna be any el Niño and that it was gonna fizzle...lol) Yea I determined she has an agenda. Might just be to anti hype. Or prove her own predictions. I don't know. Burried in her nonsense is a legitimate argument that if this enso event continues to propagate east that it could become less favorable to snow here. But she is articulating that all wrong and misunderstanding some concepts. There is also no concrete evidence that will happen. Models indicate it remains central based and some think it's eventually wanes back west towards spring. I've seen no compelling evidence this is becoming an east based event. A short temp warm pulse doesn't necessarily spell doom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z GGEM is a southern slider (TN/NC/S VA) for Dec 8-9 GFS is going that way too. I'd much prefer that in the long range versus worrying about a cut to the west or phased rainer. We're still in shotgun spread mode so I'm not overthinking anything. The 10k foot view is a pure southern stream shortwave is going to traverse the country into the deep south. That's on all guidance. Where it goes from there won't be known for probably 5 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z GGEM is a southern slider (TN/NC/S VA) for Dec 8-9 Only thing I'll take from the gem is that it finally sees the threat at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As always--thank you for bringing some clarity to this! P.S. Is it shifting east currently? There has been a recent pulse of warmer water to the east. That's not necessary a shift east. Guidance doesn't project it becoming east based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS is going that way too. I'd much prefer that in the long range versus worrying about a cut to the west or phased rainer. We're still in shotgun spread mode so I'm not overthinking anything. The 10k foot view is a pure southern stream shortwave is going to traverse the country into the deep south. That's on all guidance. Where it goes from there won't be known for probably 5 days Amen. I really like where we stand with this right now. Just now, psuhoffman said: Only thing I'll take from the gem is that it finally sees the threat at least. Yes. When something is showing up consistently on all the models it's easy to believe it's going to happen. Now we need the finer details to go our way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 FV3 looking like it might give the northern tier some flakes to look at tomorrow. Maybe an appetizer for next week's doubleheader? Even some sleet or brief snow TV would help set the mood! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 GFS few SW- with mid level energy d5. D10 storm is no longer heading toward Deluth MN. Heading towards Hatteras. Rather be on the north side in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, Scud said: GFS few SW- with mid level energy d5. D10 storm is no longer heading toward Deluth MN. Hearing towards Hatteras. Rather be on the north side in November. terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh It's playing like a sports athlete way past their prime and running on fumes...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, Ji said: terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh LOL, the euro went from a cutter into the lakes to a storm sliding under us in one run two days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The only model I trust at this range is the CRAS. Eta: 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The MJO ensembles have weakened considerably unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The MJO ensembles have weakened considerably unfortunately. Ehh that might not be a bad thing in the long run. There are other pattern drivers lined up in our favor this year so simply getting the mjo out of the way doesn't mean doom and gloom. What we don't want are long strong slow waves propagating the warm phases. The sst argues against that. If the waves are muted overall that might be fine also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh that might not be a bad thing in the long run. There are other pattern drivers lined up in our favor this year so simply getting the mjo out of the way doesn't mean doom and gloom. What we don't want are long strong slow waves propagating the warm phases. The sst argues against that. If the waves are muted overall that might be fine also. There has been a lot of change and variability with the cycling as posted by @griteater He has an awesome post in the long range in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 - EPO please ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 -AO, nice spill into Greenland. snowcover incline is leading right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The storms in the 5-12 day will definitely trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 FV3 is the perfect track/evolution for the d9-10 deal. I'll be hugging the 12z run unless the euro ups the ante. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 is the perfect track/evolution for the d9-10 deal. I'll be hugging the 12z run unless the euro ups the ante. Yeah that’s nice. GEFS totally followed the op for both chances so that sucks. And here I thought they looked more dispersive so far this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Yoda will still post them but preceded by "FWIW" or "we take" i'm still hoping someone can answer my question of where we are "taking" model runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i'm still hoping someone can answer my question of where we are "taking" model runs? To the bank or the trash can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 is the perfect track/evolution for the d9-10 deal. I'll be hugging the 12z run unless the euro ups the ante. Yes! Like a blast from the past. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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