November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The troubling part of the second threat on the gfs, for me, is that the storm seems to be disappearing from some of the ens members. I liked that it was pretty much on all of them a couple of days ago.

This is the time though that I think at least in the past where models can sometimes kind of lose a storm for a day or two.

It seems to have precipitated on most weekends for the last several months! Something is probably going to happen! IN our back yard, not sure.. In college, my met professor said to look for repeating patterns within a day of each other every 7 days unless a huge atmospheric event was witnessed. I have found that to be somewhat true! 6 of the last 7 fridays have had precipitation! Many Saturdays as well...if not precip, a frontal passage has occurred. Seems consistent.

 

[showmethesnow]

Couple of days ago I posted my thoughts on the possible bridging of ridging in Russia with ridging in the west (+PNA and/or -EPO). The latest FV3 (new GFS) shows my thoughts exactly. The ridging is splitting the pv, leaving a portion in northern Canada and forcing another portion into the Aleutians. Taking a horrible PAC look we were seeing just a few days ago and actually giving us a look that isn't far from ideal. Troughing through the GOA (+EPO) is the only negative here and in this case it isn't such a big deal because with the bridging we are still seeing a transport of colder air south that a -EPO would normally afford us.

 

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was actually referring to the Dec 9-10 potential event. The midweek deal is going to be conversational at best as it looks now.

I am still pretty gungho for that period of time. At least as gungho as one can be for a day 10 storm.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey CAPE any idea what he means here> the monthly ? You think he means the weeklies from last night ? 

 

 

Not sure. I would assume he is referring to the weeklies.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I am still pretty gungho for that period of time. At least as gungho as one can be for a day 10 storm.

Yeah it is still a period of interest for sure. Just pointing out the trend on the last couple runs of the GEFS to suppress/lose it.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure. I would assume he is referring to the weeklies.

Thanks ! 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Have you noticed this threats timing has slowed.  Its still in the day 5 range . Just small changes ( at 120 hr leads no doubt) could allow for a nice little event . Heck.. I saw 1 0z gefs member (P004) that closed off at h5 and crushes many areas .

That is what has much interest somewhat. We are seeing a slower evolution of the storm where we are seeing the 500s catch up somewhat. Need to see better separation with the departing low moving towards the 50/50 though. Still some work to do and we have 5 days so lets see what happens.

[WxUSAF]

Storm for the 5th seems to be somewhat on life support, but it also wouldn’t take a major shift for it to come back and be a light event for many. 

I think the overnight runs were very bullish for the storm on the 8th-9th.  6z GEFS excepted. 

And more signs that our torch will be a transient mild or seasonable period that reverts back to a good pattern.

[poolz1]

I thought the EPS looked pretty decent for the 9/10th threat....a few more hits in there than 12z and not as many southern sliders.

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Troughing through the GOA (+EPO) is the only negative here...

That raging +NAO doesnt bother you at all? Or are you speaking solely about the PAC oscillations? It seems we can hardly get both PAC and ATL to time themselves in unison anymore. Maybe a decadal anomaly?

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That raging +NAO doesnt bother you at all? Or are you speaking solely about the PAC oscillations? It seems we can hardly get both PAC and ATL to time themselves in unison anymore. Maybe a decadal anomaly?

Just referring to the PAC. What we were seeing just a few days ago could have meant losing 3-4 weeks of winter if not even longer. The NAO on the other hand has been flipping back and forth on a regular basis so that doesn't concern me too much.

[Round Hill WX]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just referring to the PAC. What we were seeing just a few days ago could have meant losing 3-4 weeks of winter if not even longer. The NAO on the other hand has been flipping back and forth on a regular basis so that doesn't concern me too much.

Agree. During the early part of the winter season, a -EPO is more likely to deliver cold than a -NAO for the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously doesn't hurt to have a supportive NAO regime but as we saw in 2014, a -EPO can be money for us.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Agree. During the early part of the winter season, a -EPO is more likely to deliver cold than a -NAO for the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously doesn't hurt to have a supportive NAO regime but as we saw in 2014, a -EPO can be money for us.

As long as the EPO/PNA tandem are setup at a good longitude I fully agree. BUT, any deviation to the West, then without some sort of NAO blocking wont we be looking at cutter city? 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Agree. During the early part of the winter season, a -EPO is more likely to deliver cold than a -NAO for the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously doesn't hurt to have a supportive NAO regime but as we saw in 2014, a -EPO can be money for us.

-nao isn't a big cold pattern for us like the -epo is so they aren't really comparable. The -nao can lock in highs in good spots and also be a great help with keeping storms from cutting to our west but in general it doesn't deliver arctic cold into the conus. The -epo is behind most of not all arctic outbreaks in the conus. 

If I had to choose between a -epo or -nao I would take the nao. 2013-14 was incredibly lucky on so many levels. Getting that much snow during a raging +ao/nao regime is very rare. 94-95 is a more typical outcome in the MA. Lots of mixed and/or ice but limited snow. 

[mattie g]

21 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, the euro went from a cutter into the lakes to a storm sliding under us in one run two days ago.

“The Euro only makes small adjustments from run to run.”

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

-nao isn't a big cold pattern for us like the -epo is so they aren't really comparable. The -nao can lock in highs in good spots and also be a great help with keeping storms from cutting to our west but in general it doesn't deliver arctic cold into the conus. The -epo is behind most of not all arctic outbreaks in the conus. 

If I had to choose between a -epo or -nao I would take the nao. 2013-14 was incredibly lucky on so many levels. Getting that much snow during a raging +ao/nao regime is very rare. 94-95 is a more typical outcome in the MA. Lots of mixed and/or ice but limited snow. 

Agree. The WAR is always a fight with that set up. For those further inland it can work pretty well, but closer to the coast, not so much. I will always take a -AO/NAO and a good/decent Pacific pattern. Where things stand now, I am rooting for the AK vortex to retro and a building EPO ridge, which we are seeing hints of on the LR guidance. A neg NAO is generally favored later in winter in a Nino, so I think we will get our blocky periods.

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As long as the EPO/PNA tandem are setup at a good longitude I fully agree. BUT, any deviation to the West, then without some sort of NAO blocking wont we be looking at cutter city? 

Of course there are always exceptions but wouldn't the odds favor that the EPO/PNA combo would have good positioning? Doesn't take much of a shift west or east where you lose one or the other.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

“The Euro only makes small adjustments from run to run.”

Perhaps that rule applies more to within 7 days as opposed to day 8+?...

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree. The WAR is always a fight with that set up. For those further inland it can work pretty well, but closer to the coast, not so much. I will always take a -AO/NAO and a good/decent Pacific pattern. Where things stand now, I am rooting for the AK vortex to retro and a building EPO ridge, which we are seeing hints of on the LR guidance. A -NAO is generally favored later in winter in a Nino, so I think we will get our blocky periods.

Another clue that the pac isn't going to destroy our hopes and dreams for weeks is the latest couple gfs op runs. Verbatim d11-15 is crazy talk but the op runs have diverged from the narrative of a terrible pac.  

Previously the long range ops looked just like the ens with mild north america and big GoA trough. That has been morphing just like the ens ever so slowly backing away from the worst case. A few more days of favorable trends (however small) and we can put the big relaxation idea to bed. It will still prob get mild in the conus no matter what but if it only lasts a few days then who cares. 

[Scud]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Have you noticed this threats timing has slowed.  Its still in the day 5 range . Just small changes ( at 120 hr leads no doubt) could allow for a nice little event . Heck.. I saw 1 0z gefs member (P004) that closed off at h5 and crushes many areas .

The potential has been predicated on energy moving out of the Rockies and attivating the stalled frontal boundary NE Gulf. This has left us with a series of surface waves at this point, and any development delayed in the models. What we know. Quasistationary boundary still there. Vortmax could amplify broad 500mb trof. Energy has yet to move ashore from Pacific. When it does the solution will be made clear without forecast propagation next 48hrs.

Aside: When we did everything by hand, we used the term "trof." Too old to change....

[yoda]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

I thought the EPS looked pretty decent for the 9/10th threat....a few more hits in there than 12z and not as many southern sliders.

That's good to hear.  Even though its still 9 days out, its always good to hear the EPS members suggesting some good hits for our region

[Snowchaser]

https://wset.com/news/local/december-snow-storm-heres-what-we-know

Interesting 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said:

https://wset.com/news/local/december-snow-storm-heres-what-we-know

Interesting 

Since you’re new, let me provide the friendly advice to post this type of thing in the banter thread.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since you’re new, let me provide the friendly advice to post this type of thing in the banter thread.

Was it really that bad, though? I think it was a nice "keep an eye on it" article/blog that didn't go too crazy.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was it really that bad, though? I think it was a nice "keep an eye on it" article/blog that didn't go too crazy.

It was something else originally.

[stormtracker]

Well the 5th looks dead on the GFS.  So....,

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well the 5th looks dead on the GFS.  So....,

Still wondering if it might sneak up on us somehow...lol

[yoda]

12z CMC has the Dec 8-10 storm... but its too warm.  But its there and the track looks decent anyway

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Still wondering if it might sneak up on us somehow...lol

It’s still a nice vort pass. I wouldn’t discount it yet at all.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well the 5th looks dead on the GFS.  So....,

Yea, pretty weak sauce but can't rule out a comeback. If I only had access to the vort panels I would think we are in the cross hairs for a weak/sheared event. Not often you see h5 vort panels look like this but basically nothing going on at the surface.