Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just so no one confuses my discussions I am not making any predictions and even the options are far fetched at this range...I just like analysis and discussing the possibilities...but there is no way to even guess at details at this range. Everything is on the table right now. Exactly. We're just tossing around ideas based on data at hand. No confidence in any one solution. It does seem like things are trending towards a mixed event for most if things work out ok. The depth and staying power of the cold has backed off quite a bit since we first started talking about this. GEFS still split mostly evenly between all rain, southern slider, nothing, or a winter storm of some sort for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: New GFS is a big storm and a hit, but isn't out far enough to convince me it doesn't cut west of us. Its a more consolidated system with the stj wave and the upper level trough. I like that but it might be coming together a bit too early for what we want. Too consolidated too far west isnt any good either. So many ways to fail. That said... I think given the cold in place in front... a consolidated system is the way to go because even with a west track we probably would get a front end thump in that scenario. A convoluted long duration event with multiple waves opens the door to a total fail more imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. We're just tossing around ideas based on data at hand. No confidence in any one solution. It does seem like things are trending towards a mixed event for most if things work out ok. The depth and staying power of the cold has backed off quite a bit since we first started talking about this. GEFS still split mostly evenly between all rain, southern slider, nothing, or a winter storm of some sort for our region. This post screams confidence and certainty. Lock it in that it will snow in 8 days. Everyone can relax now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. We're just tossing around ideas based on data at hand. No confidence in any one solution. It does seem like things are trending towards a mixed event for most if things work out ok. The depth and staying power of the cold has backed off quite a bit since we first started talking about this. GEFS still split mostly evenly between all rain, southern slider, nothing, or a winter storm of some sort for our region. I like that there are still some snow solutions south of us... given the time of year seeing this turn into a rain event is a much bigger threat then a snowstorm to our south. Anything is possible but I would bet against that. PS: I am not so sure the cold has backed off so much as some models are introducing different evolutions. The FV3 is still plenty cold in front but the whole trough goes neutral too early and we end up on the warm side. We still get a decent front end thump but then a lot of rain. The GFS and GGEM have a wonky double wave solution and the upper level trough stalls to our west and ruins the mid levels and then draws the system inland. The majority of the EPS still held a colder look like the fv3 but some had a less then ideal track which can wreck even a good antecedent air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He's pretty bad. I'd steer clear of his posts. Good to have a place to do what I do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Not sure if we are going to like the 12z Euro OP based on 192... 1032 HP in Quebec but around 1004mb SLP in NE MS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Don’t have precip but the Euro at 192 looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 At 192 euro is cold. Plenty cold enough for antecedent conditions as the storm approached. Also the trough is healthy looking but not as far west as the fv3. Could be a good run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: At 192 euro is cold. Plenty cold enough for antecedent conditions as the storm approached. Also the trough is healthy looking but not as far west as the fv3. Could be a good run incoming. Yeah, this is a pretty good look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: WTFx 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At 192 euro is cold. Plenty cold enough for antecedent conditions as the storm approached. Also the trough is healthy looking but not as far west as the fv3. Could be a good run incoming. Keep digin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Its definitely a cold solution. That's a win imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Its definitely a cold solution. That's a win imo. Let's just lock in the euro and then enjoy the mild period... Nice run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 It's a slam dunk. Smoked. And on Day 8 now too! Easy 1' for most everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure if we are going to like the 12z Euro OP based on 192... 1032 HP in Quebec but around 1004mb SLP in NE MS I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 From northern MS to off the coast. Very nice run. I might have to pony up some money to see the good stuff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I agree I was worried about the HP staying in tandem with the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro is a straight up lambasting. Might mix for a time with slp track but it's a front end, middle, and backend thumparoo 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'm waiting until its totally finished to share the Kuchera... it's dirty. Better than 10:1 actually for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro Sorry, only Bob Chill can post that emoticon lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 What an 850 gradient as the low tracks se of the region. It's like +3 over SoMD and still -5 over DC. Amazing run and nice CCB/deform. Would be heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Kuchera: 10:1 If these need to be moved into the Digital Snow Thread, so be it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a straight up lambasting. Might mix for a time with slp track but it's a front end, middle, and backend thumparoo Thumparoo?? Sir you just earned a spot on my list of forum quotations for winter 2018-19, lololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I am not looking at another model this weekend after that Euro run! I AM LYING... Maybe late nights starting Sunday Night! WOW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What an 850 gradient as the low tracks se of the region. It's like +3 over SoMD and still -5 over DC. Amazing run and nice CCB/deform. Would be heavy snow. All the options are still on the table but at least one of them is that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a straight up lambasting. Might mix for a time with slp track but it's a front end, middle, and backend thumparoo That's the kind of thumping that speaks to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Man that H is in a hurry to move out; 1035H north of Bermuda as precipitation reaches DC; If its 1041, its not just gonna scoot skidaddle outta here. I'd just focus on track at this juncture, and on an op run, thats not very narrow in scope. Looks to be a doozy nontheless. verbatim, I'd take the GFS track an climo and see what falls where. Its just 1 run in way out there land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Kuchera: 10:1 If these need to be moved into the Digital Snow Thread, so be it. I have a tent that you could move them into..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 It all comes down to the positioning of the northern short waves and the PV....need to time it where the low comes up the coast right after the front that provides the cold air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I have a tent that you could move them into..... I think we need Mappys description 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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