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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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24 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

almost a whole inch less than you 5 miles to your south east here in Great Kills, sitting at .29 for the day.  This past cell only gave a few drops and missed the south shore.

Yeah only got a small amount here from that last shower...Last night around 1 am received over an inch in 30 minutes.

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2 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Look at that frost for sure in the blue GFS

AA7F2D4E-157A-4960-A2EF-F84E22818493.png

Frost in extreme Northern NY and Vermont/New Hampshire during early September really isn't all that uncommon though.

Some areas, like Lake Placid or Saranac Lake for example, have even seen 32F during the middle of Summer (July).

https://www.weather.gov/btv/climoFreeze#adirondacks

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Well wish me luck. Officially under a hurricane warning now as of 5pm. Expecting a high end cat 1 impact here, maybe higher. Yeah we’ll be fine eventually, but it’s going to be a rough 72-96 hours. Most stores sold out of water yesterday, but luckily we were able to locate some more in Waikiki today. Not sure how well Aulani is built to handle such an impact but I guess we’re going to find out.

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59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well wish me luck. Officially under a hurricane warning now as of 5pm. Expecting a high end cat 1 impact here, maybe higher. Yeah we’ll be fine eventually, but it’s going to be a rough 72-96 hours. Most stores sold out of water yesterday, but luckily we were able to locate some more in Waikiki today. Not sure how well Aulani is built to handle such an impact but I guess we’re going to find out.

Be sure to livestream if you could. Stay safe 

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m going to try and get some video from my balcony on the fifth floor. It’s going to be hard though since it faces the ocean.

Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

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44 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

I agree. The satellite presentation is rapidly deteriorating right now. This storm doesn’t have the aid of baroclynicity we see in the mid latitudes with a sheared storm. So once the core is destroyed your left with a lopsided tropical storm. I think the winds up by Oahu are just tropical trop in gusts type of deal. Maybe some power outages in the higher and more rural terrain. In a highly populated area like Waikiki I would expect the effects will be minimal. Just a windy rainy day type of deal. The windward sides of the islands still have a flash flooding threat if they get into any training banding. 

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10 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Well wish me luck. Officially under a hurricane warning now as of 5pm. Expecting a high end cat 1 impact here, maybe higher. Yeah we’ll be fine eventually, but it’s going to be a rough 72-96 hours. Most stores sold out of water yesterday, but luckily we were able to locate some more in Waikiki today. Not sure how well Aulani is built to handle such an impact but I guess we’re going to find out.

Be safe x85

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In addition to top 10 August warmth, several of our stations are in the top 10 warmest of all summers on record through 8/22.

6/1-8/22 rankings

LGA....#5....77.6

BDR...#5....74.1

ISP....#5....73.4

8/1-8/22 rankings

LGA....#5....80.9

BDR...#2....78.3

ISP....#3....77.3

HPN...#4...76.2

EWR...#9..79.2

JFK.....#9...77.6

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With my .07" of rain today it boosted my monthly total to 11.38" which is the second wettest August in my 45 years of record keeping and overall the sixth wettest month.

Wettest months:

1 - 17.28"  August 2011 (aided by Hurricane Irene)

2 - 15.79"  October 2005

3 - 14.21"  September 1999 (aided by Hurricane Floyd)

4- 11.97"   May 1989

5 -11,88"   April 2007

6 - 11.38:  August 2018 (as if August 23)

 

Total precipitation for 2018 so far   46.90"     Total precipitation since July 15, 2018  - 17.55"

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7 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

Regardless, I’m taking this seriously. I still think we get gusts to hurricane strength where I am and sustained winds over 60mph tomorrow. It’s not going to be a major when it gets here, but then again I never expected it would be. 

Still 135 mph max at 8am

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30 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of August averaging 80degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.1[77.7] and should end near +2.9[78.1].   This just makes the Top Ten.

Should get mighty interesting with a big ridge in the east and the tropics finally waking up, both the gfs and Euro have started to show more tropical systems in the LR. 

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But the CFS which can be full of exaggerated systems near the EC, looks like a ***** cat during the next 30 days.   High pressure predominates in eastern half of US.   Best chance mid-month, weak system.   Precip. should be near Normal for the month.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Following the big heat next week, Euro and GFS have a cooler back door pattern with easterly flow for the Labor Day weekend. It has been a challenge all summer and spring to getting decent beach weather on the weekends. The top beach days this summer have often been during the week. This doesn't help people that have to work during the week. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_6.thumb.png.04a9927241e4b6a5a120bbdb4e4e9971.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.thumb.png.72f6d46b1f9b718d8f060dab0ff24ad2.png

 

 

 

ThIs weekend will be a perfect beach weekend. Taking the family to Cedar Beach tomorrow. 

57 this morning.

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21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

ThIs weekend will be a perfect beach weekend. Taking the family to Cedar Beach tomorrow. 

57 this morning.

Enjoy it. That is a great beach to miss the weekend crowds. Today was our one big radiational cooling morning for the whole month.

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