NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 I was in Monticello last night and it was cold in the mid 50’s felt great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed. Yeah so much for the extended hot stretch. Now down to just 3 days as you said. Front comes in wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed. Heat reloads after next weekend, EPS shows even more ridging for early September. Getting 90s in September is a lot more difficult, but the potential is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed. Thank G-d. This is like getting single digits and teens right before March. Enough is enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Hope the summer continues well into September, really enjoy warmth and being outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: Hope the summer continues well into September, really enjoy warmth and being outdoors. This time of the season is my favorite in my opinion. Dry semi hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Heat reloads after next weekend, EPS shows even more ridging for early September. Getting 90s in September is a lot more difficult, but the potential is definitely there. And a great example of that was September 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.0[77.5] and should end at +3.1[78.3]. The full 8 days is averaging 80degs., or 7degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 You know it's going to get hot this week when both the Euro and GFS MOS have mid to upper 90's. The heat index will go over 100 with the dew points in the 70's. Closer to normal temperatures expected for next Thursday through Saturday behind the backdoor cold front. NEWARK KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/25/2018 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28| WED 29| THU 30| FRI 31| SAT 01 CLIMO X/N 83| 66 87| 72 94| 76 97| 78 97| 73 82| 65 80| 66 82 63 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Looks like models are less with the closed low / easterly flow next weekend and more of a 2 -3 (Fri-sat/ sun) day cool down towards normal with more heat on/around labor day itself and into sep 4th week. 850s peaking 18 - 22 Tue - thu (8 28 - 30) ahead of front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 As of today station Aug mean temp stands at 76.9°...Warmest on 40 year record is 78.6° set in 2016, so with the up coming warmth will probably finish 3rd or so warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, doncat said: As of today station Aug mean temp stands at 76.9°...Warmest on 40 year record is 78.6° set in 2016, so with the up coming warmth will probably finish 3rd or so warmest. Interesting pattern since meteorological winter of the last month of each season having the warmest departure. LGA Dec...-2.0 Jan...-1.5 Feb...+7.1 Mar....-1.4 Apr.....-3.3 May..+4.9 Jun...+0.7 Jul....+2.4 Aug..+3.6 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 On 8/20/2018 at 9:39 PM, JustinRP37 said: February was +6.7F at KHPN and so far August has been +4.7F. Last month was +2.2. April was a coldest departure from normal at -2.1F, since March of 2015, which was -2.7 and February 2015 which was -6.7F. That February was the coldest departure from normal I have in that dataset since December 2010. Overall since I began compiling this data for tick projects, KHPN is running +1.8F above the 1981-2010 normals. I agree, my thinking has been that we are close to 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 average for today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 On 8/20/2018 at 10:01 PM, Brian5671 said: August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above... I meant after Feb. I do agree that we are really about 2 degrees in reality over the 1981-2010 average today. Perhaps we should use 1.5 to 2 degrees over those averages and that would fit for today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 On 8/23/2018 at 9:03 AM, SACRUS said: The cool down so far LGA: 8/19: 75 / 70 -3 8/20: 75 / 68 -3 8/21: 81 / 68 -1 8/22: 87 / 73 +4 8/23: 80 / 68 -2 8/24: 85 / 70 +3 8/25: 81 / 71 +1 EWR: v 8/19: 73 / 68 -5 8/20: 75 / 68 -4 8/21: 77 / 69 -2 8/22: 86 / 71 +4 8/23: 81 / 66 -3 8/24: 85 / 63 -1 8/25: 80 / 66 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 8 hours ago, doncat said: As of today station Aug mean temp stands at 76.9°...Warmest on 40 year record is 78.6° set in 2016, so with the up coming warmth will probably finish 3rd or so warmest. September will likely be top 3 as well, the ridging looks to cycle throughout the month, we may even set a new monthly record, in face the entire CONUS might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.4]. Should end August at +2.9[78.1]. The full 8 days is averaging 79degs., or about 7degs. AN. The RWTT still has the next 90 days with relentless heat (ie. AN). This goes for most of the NH, not just the US and 2/3 of Canada. I do not know what makes it tick and so I don't what it will take to change its output. Hope the CFS does not start showing the 5400THK line over Hudson Bay for Dec., as I commented 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Several local stations already close to the warmest August on record before the big heat this week. Local August heat rankings through 8/25: EWR....#8....78.5 LGA.....#3.....80.3 JFK......#10...76.9 ISP......#4......76.3 BDR.....#2......77.5 HPN.....#3......75.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.4]. Should end August at +2.9[78.1]. The full 8 days is averaging 79degs., or about 7degs. AN. The RWTT still has the next 90 days with relentless heat (ie. AN). This goes for most of the NH, not just the US and 2/3 of Canada. I do not know what makes it tick and so I don't what it will take to change its output. Hope the CFS does not start showing the 5400THK line over Hudson Bay for Dec., as I commented 3 years ago. Love it! Let’s have an old fashioned Indian Summer and perhaps we can barbecue our Thanksgiving Turkeys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 56 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 The NAM has near record heat index values for the last week of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2018 Author Share Posted August 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 The humidity has returned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The humidity has returned Yea, 80/68 here, back to sweating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: John always forgets LI in his forecasts. LI gets the brunt of the heat verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Love it! Let’s have an old fashioned Indian Summer and perhaps we can barbecue our Thanksgiving Turkeys! That's pretty much been the norm over the last 18 years with a few anomalous years mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 When was the last time we had below normal water temps off the coast? I feel like they've been perpetually above to well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2018 Author Share Posted August 26, 2018 Current temp 85/DP 68/RH 50% A nice day out there but the heat is building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Euro and GFS slowed down the frontal passage so the heatwave extends into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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