Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Only May has been well above normal. August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Gfs showing some relentless heat next week, many more 90s likely maybe upper 90s even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 First sub-70 max dew point since July 19th today, streak ends at 31 days. Dew point topped out at 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/19/2018 at 10:45 AM, SACRUS said: Guess Lowest temp 8/19 - 8/24 EWR: 61 LGA: 64 NYC: 63 JFK: 61 Highest temp 8/25 - 8/31 EWR: 92 LGA: 92 NYC: 75 JFK: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Per latest advisory, looks like Lane is undergoing ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 hours ago, bluewave said: The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke. Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20 LGA 88.1, TEB 88.1, EWR 87.3, New Brunswick 86.8, BDR 85.2, ISP 84.5, NYC 84.4, JFK 84.1, HPN 83.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 77degs. or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.6[78.4]. Should be +2.7[77.9] by the 29th. Big HW starting Aug.27 and onward(Sept.6) as I mentioned at start of this topic? Even the conservative EURO has 90's, and the GFS for the third time this season loves the 100's. Records during this period range from 102 to 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Max winds up to 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 5 hours ago, mjr said: Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke. Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20 LGA 88.1, TEB 88.1, EWR 87.3, New Brunswick 86.8, BDR 85.2, ISP 84.5, NYC 84.4, JFK 84.1, HPN 83.6. LGA is doing fine. It is located in one of the warmest parts of NYC. So it is supposed to have some of the highest temperatures. LGA seems to alternate with EWR on which station has the highest temperatures. Some summers with different wind flow and humidity EWR has higher temps than LGA. Did you know that Central Park often had more 90 degree days than LGA before the 1996 sensor move in Central Park. That was when the Central Park thermometer was in the open like all sensors are supposed to be. This summer the highest temperature departures have been located north and east of NYC closer to the strongest upper ridging. Notice how similar the temperature rankings are for these areas north and east of NYC. Areas south and west of NYC have been cooler where there have been more clouds and rain along with onshore flow. August average temperatures and rankings through the 20th: LGA....81.3...#4th warmest ISP.....77.7....#3 BDR....78.7....#1 warmest August 1-20 on record HPN....76.5....#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Max winds up to 150 mph Start looking for Maui or big island resorts to stay for rest of your trip soon imo. Looks like a cat 1-2 could be heading to the western islands in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Per latest advisory, looks like Lane is undergoing ERC. Who cares put it in banter lol jk be careful if you’re there. im wondering if I should go to our town pool today looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 76/65 now and clear skies. Top ten day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 hours ago, uofmiami said: Start looking for Maui or big island resorts to stay for rest of your trip soon imo. Looks like a cat 1-2 could be heading to the western islands in a few days. Maui looks to have similar impacts to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Maui looks to have similar impacts to here. It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. Yea he’s fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. I agree, should the storm not make landfall the winds will be out of the trade direction primarily and the trades can gust into the 40+ mph range sometimes too. 12Z GFS apparently wants to run Lane into the Big Island FWIW. Curious to see how strong the shear is, once Lane begins to turn, which will be crucial for what islands get some impacts from storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 What about the flash flooding from all the rain though? Some of the guidance dumps double digit rainfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Euro keeps Lane pretty far away from Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What about the flash flooding from all the rain though? Some of the guidance dumps double digit rainfall here. I have been there for some pretty serious rains (6”+ in 24 hours) during the winter from a stuck cold front. The only thing you will notice is the water turning brown from runoff. The islands get heavy rains often so they are accustomed to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 I guess, time will tell. Hoping for the best. I’ve probably heard a dozen different possible outcomes here in terms of impacts. Just hoping for the least impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Heats coming next week but we've had a nice break, last three days here could only manage 69, 71 and 73 degree high temps...Nice and comfortable thru the weekend also after tomorrows brief warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I guess, time will tell. Hoping for the best. I’ve probably heard a dozen different possible outcomes here in terms of impacts. Just hoping for the least impactful. Bro relax, you will be fine. Storm will be weakening, and wont come close to you. Enjoy the vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Bro relax, you will be fine. Storm will be weakening, and wont come close to you. Enjoy the vacation No offense, but the latest track from the CPHC disagrees. And this isn’t a microcane, it has a 20nm wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center. Lane looks great on IR loop and is probably a cat 5 right now, even though they kept it at 155MPH for the new advisory. I’ll be feeling the storm as early as tomorrow night, well before the core approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: No offense, but the latest track from the CPHC disagrees. And this isn’t a microcane, it has a 20nm wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center. Lane looks great on IR loop and is probably a cat 5 right now, even though they kept it at 155MPH for the new advisory. I’ll be feeling the storm as early as tomorrow night, well before the core approaches. Unless you are hanging out with Gilligan and Maryanne, you will be fine even if it does come close. Very well built hotels there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Unless you are hanging out with Gilligan and Maryanne, you will be fine even if it does come close. Very well built hotels there. Anyway, I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 6 hours ago, psv88 said: 76/65 now and clear skies. Top ten day ...i concur..after a dome and gloom forecast, today turned out just fine-n-dandy..great day on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyway, I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight. You’ll end up in a shelter, if you are forced to evacuate, it’s why I kept saying head East to Maui or big island, regardless of watches imo. Does your hotel property have a building away from the beach, higher up in elevation? In Iwa we moved to building away from beach on property. The next day the building we had been in was gone. Meanwhile we had people knocking on room door to get on bus to shelter as storm was hitting. Hopefully Lane stays away and only a glancing blow with TS force winds happens to you in Oahu. Otherwise it’ll be a memorable vacation for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, uofmiami said: You’ll end up in a shelter, if you are forced to evacuate, it’s why I kept saying head East to Maui or big island, regardless of watches imo. Does your hotel property have a building away from the beach, higher up in elevation? In Iwa we moved to building away from beach on property. The next day the building we had been in was gone. Meanwhile we had people knocking on room door to get on bus to shelter as storm was hitting. Hopefully Lane stays away and only a glancing blow with TS force winds happens to you in Oahu. Otherwise it’ll be a memorable vacation for the wrong reasons. Not really. We’re staying at Aulani. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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