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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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On ‎8‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 10:45 AM, SACRUS said:

Guess

 

Lowest temp 8/19 - 8/24

EWR:    61
LGA:    64
NYC:    63
JFK:      61
 

Highest temp 8/25 - 8/31

 

EWR:    92
LGA:     92
NYC:     75
JFK:       88

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th.

tn72503_1yr.gif.454715a894170d0459c30a7ceb445ff4.gif

Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke.

 

Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20

LGA 88.1,  TEB 88.1,  EWR 87.3,  New Brunswick 86.8,  BDR 85.2,  ISP 84.5,  NYC 84.4,  JFK 84.1,  HPN 83.6. 

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Next 8 days averaging 77degs. or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.6[78.4].   Should be  +2.7[77.9] by the 29th.

Big HW starting Aug.27 and onward(Sept.6) as I mentioned at start of this topic?  Even the conservative EURO has 90's, and the GFS for the third time this season loves the 100's. 

Records during this period range from 102 to 94.

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5 hours ago, mjr said:

Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke.

 

Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20

LGA 88.1,  TEB 88.1,  EWR 87.3,  New Brunswick 86.8,  BDR 85.2,  ISP 84.5,  NYC 84.4,  JFK 84.1,  HPN 83.6. 

LGA is doing fine. It is located in one of the warmest parts of NYC. So it is supposed to have some of the highest temperatures. LGA seems to alternate with EWR on which station has the highest temperatures. Some summers with different wind flow and humidity EWR has higher temps than LGA. Did you know that Central Park often had more 90 degree days than LGA before the 1996 sensor move in Central Park. That was when the Central Park thermometer was in the open like all sensors are supposed to be.

This summer the highest temperature departures have been located north and east of NYC closer to the strongest upper ridging. Notice how similar the temperature rankings are for these areas north and east of NYC. Areas south and west of NYC have been cooler where there have been more clouds and rain along with onshore flow.

August average temperatures and rankings through the 20th:

LGA....81.3...#4th warmest

ISP.....77.7....#3

BDR....78.7....#1 warmest August 1-20 on record

HPN....76.5....#4

mon2day.gif.8f2cf0e33041bb090d0782bef65532e5.gif

 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Maui looks to have similar impacts to here.

It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core.  

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35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core.  

Yea he’s fine 

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core.  

I agree, should the storm not make landfall the winds will be out of the trade direction primarily and the trades can gust into the 40+ mph range sometimes too.  12Z GFS apparently wants to run Lane into the Big Island FWIW.  Curious to see how strong the shear is, once Lane begins to turn, which will be crucial for what islands get some impacts from storm.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What about the flash flooding from all the rain though? Some of the guidance dumps double digit rainfall here.

I have been there for some pretty serious rains (6”+ in 24 hours) during the winter from a stuck cold front. The only thing you will notice is the water turning brown from runoff. The islands get heavy rains often so they are accustomed to it.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Bro relax, you will be fine. Storm will be weakening, and wont come close to you. Enjoy the vacation

No offense, but the latest track from the CPHC disagrees. And this isn’t a microcane, it has a 20nm wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center.

Lane looks great on IR loop and is probably a cat 5 right now, even though they kept it at 155MPH for the new advisory. I’ll be feeling the storm as early as tomorrow night, well before the core approaches.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

No offense, but the latest track from the CPHC disagrees. And this isn’t a microcane, it has a 20nm wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center.

Lane looks great on IR loop and is probably a cat 5 right now, even though they kept it at 155MPH for the new advisory. I’ll be feeling the storm as early as tomorrow night, well before the core approaches.

Unless you are hanging out with Gilligan and Maryanne, you will be fine even if it does come close. Very well built hotels there. 

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Unless you are hanging out with Gilligan and Maryanne, you will be fine even if it does come close. Very well built hotels there. 

Anyway,

I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight.

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36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Anyway,

I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight.

You’ll end up in a shelter, if you are forced to evacuate, it’s why I kept saying head East to Maui or big island, regardless of watches imo. Does your hotel property have a building away from the beach, higher up in elevation?  In Iwa we moved to building away from beach on property. The next day the building we had been in was gone. Meanwhile we had people knocking on room door to get on bus to shelter as storm was hitting.  Hopefully Lane stays away and only a glancing blow with TS force winds happens to you in Oahu.  Otherwise it’ll be a memorable vacation for the wrong reasons.

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14 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

You’ll end up in a shelter, if you are forced to evacuate, it’s why I kept saying head East to Maui or big island, regardless of watches imo. Does your hotel property have a building away from the beach, higher up in elevation?  In Iwa we moved to building away from beach on property. The next day the building we had been in was gone. Meanwhile we had people knocking on room door to get on bus to shelter as storm was hitting.  Hopefully Lane stays away and only a glancing blow with TS force winds happens to you in Oahu.  Otherwise it’ll be a memorable vacation for the wrong reasons.

Not really. We’re staying at Aulani.

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