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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I see it poured at home. I guess some things never change. Glad I turned off my sprinklers before I left.

I made the mistake of leaving mine on (and actually slightly increased the duration for each zone) while I was away in Scotland in mid July.  I’ve had the whole system off since I got back. That’s the longest by far I haven’t had to water in summer. Almost thought about turning them on again if it didn’t rain last night- but it did. 

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8 hours ago, mjr said:

 On July 31, 2009 there was an article in the NY Times lamenting the cool summer thus far and that it had not exceeded 86 during all of July. Well, the summer was certainly well below normal but LGA recorded days of 87,87,88 and 89 (on the day of the article).

I would kill to have more summers like that one. Absolutely beautiful for all of June and July. August was back to normal but it was my all-time favorite summer. Also had an EF2 touch down about 20 miles from me that summer, which qualifies as interesting in Pennsylvania.

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17 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I would kill to have more summers like that one. Absolutely beautiful for all of June and July. August was back to normal but it was my all-time favorite summer. Also had an EF2 touch down about 20 miles from me that summer, which qualifies as interesting in Pennsylvania.

June-July 2009 and February 2015 were the rare extreme cold outliers over the last 10 years.

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

I would kill to have more summers like that one. Absolutely beautiful for all of June and July. August was back to normal but it was my all-time favorite summer. Also had an EF2 touch down about 20 miles from me that summer, which qualifies as interesting in Pennsylvania.

Rained here most of June.   Really sucked.   July was cool and dry like you said and August had 4 weeks of humid/warm, it's like the opposite of a warm winter where you get 2-3 weeks of cold and that's it...guess it's the summer version of that.

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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I wouldn’t use the term ‘colder’. I’m thinking maybe ‘cooler’ would be the more likely term for September. I’m thinking September as a whole is still +1.5 - +3.0 as a whole. 

Pretty safe bet at this point. Offshore water temps are way above normal which has a positive feedback with our weather. 

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Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Oh stop crying summer will be over get over it. Winter and snow is on its way. 

I’m not crying at all. I actually enjoy winter and summer. Fall is ranked 3rd and spring would be ranked at infinity terrible.  All I am saying is there is nothing screaming “Fall” or first frost that I can see. 

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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m not crying at all. I actually enjoy winter and summer. Fall is ranked 3rd and spring would be ranked at infinity terrible.  All I am saying is there is nothing screaming “Fall” or first frost that I can see. 

Dude fall doesn’t really come here until October usually so you are getting ahead of yourself. All I’m saying is colder air is going to invade us in two weeks or so. No frost till October. 

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2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Oh stop crying summer will be over get over it. Winter and snow is on its way. 

But those warm SSTs can work to our advantage in winter. However, one thing I have always found odd is how many people on weather forums say they love the snow, but then don’t ski, board, snowshoe, ride on snowmobiles, etc. All that matters to so many is that we reach above our seasonal snow average, like last year. I personally don’t care how much snow we get as long as it STAYS for more than 24 hours. I hated getting those huge storms and just sadly watched it all melt in a few days. Best winter was a few years ago when it didn’t melt and kept piling up. 

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1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Dude fall doesn’t really come here until October usually so you are getting ahead of yourself. All I’m saying is colder air is going to invade us in two weeks or so. No frost till October. 

I realize that. Looking at recent history sometimes “fall” weather doesn’t even arrive until November. All I was joking about was the use of “cold”. It will be cooler yes. But again, I don’t see anything that is really below average. Nobody calls 70s and upper 60s in September “cold”. 

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13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I realize that. Looking at recent history sometimes “fall” weather doesn’t even arrive until November. All I was joking about was the use of “cold”. It will be cooler yes. But again, I don’t see anything that is really below average. Nobody calls 70s and upper 60s in September “cold”. 

last year it was cooler in early september than it was most of october

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21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

last year it was cooler in early september than it was most of october

Last September was +4.1F overall at KHPN and October was +8.9F overall. Very warm start to fall before the bottom fell out for November -1.2F and December -2.2F, before February roasted at +6.7F. The last September/October to be below average was September 2013 at -0.4F.

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Area of moderate to heavy rain just went by to the west and southwest of CI, with a few gusts.  Mostly missed, but there was a nice curtain of rain visible for 15 mins.[to 2:20pm]

Ditto the above for Jersey City to upper Manhattan [3:30pm for next 15 mins.]as viewed from perspective of a high rise in CI.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Euro next week...hot,hot,hot... Mon thru Fri.

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

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55 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

Great call!!! Just looked at it! Awesome job! Many called for a big cool down, something I still don't see in the extended. Bouts of averages to just above average.

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On 8/13/2018 at 5:15 AM, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.0[80.0].    Should be  +4.4[80.0] by the 21st.

 

16 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[78.1].    Should be +3.0[78.1] by the 30th.

850mb. T's reaching their nadir for the next 15 days tomorrow[10C].   A solid 5 days[8/28-9/02] near 18C, then induced troughyness takes it down to a near normal 12C in first week of Sept.

RWTT still has the next 90 days at +2F to +3F, seemingly with few breaks.   Really, just eastern Canada and Greenland look BN in the hemisphere during the period.

CFS has weak system along EC during week 2 in Sept , leading to a cutoff 500mb low over us by mid Sept.

 

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

Which call? Lol ;)

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