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Rtd208

August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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My prediction for August is +2 to +3.  In fact my prediction is the same for S,O,N,D.  Sneaky things may happen with change in wavelengths during the winter. 

The period Aug. 21 to Sept. 05 record heat for the  time frame and a TS to boot.

Support by RWTT, CFS and CANSIPS.

 

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7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

My prediction for August is +2 to +3.  In fact my prediction is the same for S,O,N,D.  Sneaky things may happen with change in wavelengths during the winter. 

The period Aug. 21 to Sept. 05 record heat for the  time frame and a TS to boot.

Support by RWTT, CFS and CANSIPS.

 

I think the one likelihood in my opinion is wetter than normal.  Despite that its been overall warmer than normal.  Closer in -  the next period to watch as WC ridge may get beat east for a bit, is 8/4 - 8/12 for more widespread heat.  We'll see how it goes.

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Anyone buying all the 100's the GFS has on sale for the first half of August?   Will it get its revenge after its July bust?

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Another surge of tropical dew points as we move into August. With the WAR expanding to the west, we'll get some 90's to go with the high humidity.

NAMMA_sfc_dewp_033.png.f8a755b0166fcb526902045fcd4c8134.png

eps_z500_5900_conus_132.thumb.png.66aa563b1e9bb9712a5a175ef290c61d.png

 

 

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The first week of August already averaging 82degs., or 5degs. AN.

The first two weeks of August are a LOCK for AN temperatures as we give up some precipitation due to a nossy SEAtlantic Ridge.

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another surge of tropical dew points as we move into August. With the WAR expanding to the west, we'll get some 90's to go with the high humidity.

NAMMA_sfc_dewp_033.png.f8a755b0166fcb526902045fcd4c8134.png

eps_z500_5900_conus_132.thumb.png.66aa563b1e9bb9712a5a175ef290c61d.png

 

 

f60db82acb9510030d2cf396c5bfa087_its-fin

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Kind of an interesting day Wednesday...

We'll likely get the standard warm advection storms late tonight into the morning.  The activity late tonight will initially be a little bit elevated, but by morning we'll quickly erode the low-level CINH and develop some surface-based instability.  There may be a narrow window for surface-based storms across central and eventually northern NJ/NYC/extreme southern NY between like 7am-12pm (moving south to north).  Low LCLs, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH will be supportive of rotating storms and perhaps a marginal tornado risk.  Most of the Northeast tornadoes seem to be surprise stuff with marginal parameters in the morning, so something is possible.  The HRRR solution is slower in lifting those storms north and likely allows them to become surface based across N NJ/towards NYC...the best shot of WAA is a little earlier, so not sure they're quite that slow...but if they are, I do think they'd be supercells with some sort of tornado risk by late morning/early afternoon. 

There should be a window in the early to mid-afternoon of some heating, and with a ton of low-level moisture, it won't take a whole lot of heating to get 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE.  The CAPE profiles look tall and skinny thanks to atrociously weak lapse rates, but that should still be enough for some decent storms during the late-afternoon and evening.  With 30-40 knots of bulk shear and over 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH still through the evening...perhaps even ramping up a bit during the evening as the LLJ ramps up a bit...shear is certainly supportive for anything to be organized and possibly rotating during the late-afternoon and evening.  There's no real cap or anything, but forcing also looks pretty weak this far east.  Best chances may be from extreme NW NJ (and possibly a little farther west of that) into southern NY in the evening, though if anything were to develop farther east there'd be some sort of gusty wind/weak tornado risk.  If the morning activity leaves any sort of boundary that could perhaps be some sort of focus farther east. 

I tend to agree with the slight risk being a bit northwest of the bulk of this region...though the morning stuff will definitely have to be watched, with sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs, it won't take much for a weak tornado with any surface-based storms.  The evening stuff I'm more meh on, but I'd rather be in NW NJ than closer to NYC. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Kind of an interesting day Wednesday...

We'll likely get the standard warm advection storms late tonight into the morning.  The activity late tonight will initially be a little bit elevated, but by morning we'll quickly erode the low-level CINH and develop some surface-based instability.  There may be a narrow window for surface-based storms across central and eventually northern NJ/NYC/extreme southern NY between like 7am-12pm (moving south to north).  Low LCLs, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH will be supportive of rotating storms and perhaps a marginal tornado risk.  Most of the Northeast tornadoes seem to be surprise stuff with marginal parameters in the morning, so something is possible.  The HRRR solution is slower in lifting those storms north and likely allows them to become surface based across N NJ/towards NYC...the best shot of WAA is a little earlier, so not sure they're quite that slow...but if they are, I do think they'd be supercells with some sort of tornado risk by late morning/early afternoon. 

There should be a window in the early to mid-afternoon of some heating, and with a ton of low-level moisture, it won't take a whole lot of heating to get 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE.  The CAPE profiles look tall and skinny thanks to atrociously weak lapse rates, but that should still be enough for some decent storms during the late-afternoon and evening.  With 30-40 knots of bulk shear and over 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH still through the evening...perhaps even ramping up a bit during the evening as the LLJ ramps up a bit...shear is certainly supportive for anything to be organized and possibly rotating during the late-afternoon and evening.  There's no real cap or anything, but forcing also looks pretty weak this far east.  Best chances may be from extreme NW NJ (and possibly a little farther west of that) into southern NY in the evening, though if anything were to develop farther east there'd be some sort of gusty wind/weak tornado risk.  If the morning activity leaves any sort of boundary that could perhaps be some sort of focus farther east. 

I tend to agree with the slight risk being a bit northwest of the bulk of this region...though the morning stuff will definitely have to be watched, with sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs, it won't take much for a weak tornado with any surface-based storms.  The evening stuff I'm more meh on, but I'd rather be in NW NJ than closer to NYC. 

Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time

8:1:18.png

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7 hours ago, Ace said:

Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time

8:1:18.png

Yeah I’m impressed with the soundings.  And when you have a strong low-level shear (this could be stronger but it’s enough) and low LCL combo it definitely doesn’t take a ton to get a tornado.  Just need to get surface based storms...which we should get but the instability may be a little slower to come up than what the HRRR shows. 

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13 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said:

 

Another day with 75 or higher maximum dew points at JFK this year. The current 76 degree dew point at JFK ties the 3rd highest yearly amount at 18 days. We have never seen 3 consecutive years with 17+ days before. The 2010's continue to redefine what is possible around here.

JFK annual highest number of maxium dew point days of 75 degrees or higher

#1....24....1983

#2....19....2016

#3....18....2018...1999

#4....17....2017...1995

 

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Pretty meh radar so far.  Parameters are in place in central NJ but just no decent storms yet.  We'll see if it picks up at all the rest of this morning.  If not it'll just be a disgustingly humid day. 

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Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours.

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27 minutes ago, Ace said:

Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours.

I'm heading up to the Yonkers area for now. Probably end up further north but if there will be severe weather I think it will be there. 

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...hoping to salvage a beach day today on my day off..looks pretty bad now but clearing skies

seem to be heading north bound from the ocean..(need that goes-16 satellite SACRUS).

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34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same here...looks partly sunny later

Another close to 600 dm WAR building in next few days. 

eps_z500_5940_noram_48.thumb.png.acf06884d364fc8b0a37ac75c96af6d3.png

 

 

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