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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The EPS has taken one of their wayward members (the op) to the woodshed.  That April 15 deal turned into a cutter type deal, along with milder temps.  I expect to see the op toe the line at 0z, lol.

The eps has markedly turned colder with each run starting at 00z. We door. Maybe not like the op run, but it’s coming. 

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Why April is the worst weather month out of the calendar year ... 

Some years, I grudgingly admit, tepid days are anachronistic along with the absencia of the proverbial climate dildo flogging ... but this year?  Truth comes around backside, I'm afraid.  I guess there is one petty upshot to all this misery (for those who in truth, truly are despondent for sans warmer lilac pushin' days that must for all intents and purpose be on the other side of world in a garden in China...), and that is that this time we are not alone.  

Yup.  This boat ride is brimming with other regional occupancy. The North American continent is really under cryo siege.  The GFS cluster has been flagging a mid April blizzard for the mid and high Plains region, the likes of which would make any January god envious.  I even saw a member or two (including the operational GFS on one point or the other) with surface pressures < 970 mb!

If can happen there, it can park SE of Nantucket - just not doing it.  So, there's no reach around by nature's violation of decency, either... Nope, perfect 0 redeeming value - that really should in some twisted sense be considered pretty remarkable.  The only aspect remaining that could mar the complexion of the perfect wrongitude ?  The fact that the models could be wrong. 

 

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Anyway ... as expected, the 00z Euro did correct for that absurd early February look it was selling on the 12z run from yesterday.  What's interesting about this run for me is that region below the ~ 35th parallel, sort of hints at where the subtropical ridge nodes are situated - albeit heavily compacted S by the bad-breath of the late winter SSW.

Other than a week where the AO recovered, that index has spent much of the time since the early March nose dive in negative departures .. We are seeing blocks engender in middle and extended range modeling at least excuse imaginable, and doing so prodigiously above normal too... It's what destroyed the previous multi day, multi-cycle Euro impression for a real ascent into warm times over eastern N/A that kicked into the solutions three cycles ago.  Before that, it was bringing +13 C air to CAR, ME for this next weekend.  That has 0 hope of happening if the model is correct since it flipped the script to a more buckled flow over Canada, and frankly ... I don't see given to the topic at hand why we should assume it won't be. 

It's a matter of to what degree but with no antecedent sufficient volcanic means to do so ... and, considering that as of last check, the sun is still shining ...it was a safe bet that Euro look was full of schit.

Anyway, if the region above the 45 N band can relax ... those lower latitude ridging features may hearken to what lies in store- and no... I'm not basing that insight upon this one run. keep observing that tendency to sea-saw toward higher heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. 

March and April being this far below normal; I wonder if February is already compensated for, and this is now gone over the top?  Because something tells me if that is so, we are not going to be -4 F for the year in this particular Global day and age. 

Edit...actually the -4 is just in the last 10 days... Otherwise, not even close!  Just a cursory glance at the majors for February had most +5 to +7 which is top tier stuff... Surprisingly, March came in much more modestly negative at -1 to -2 .. "Seemed" can be deceiving... So, in order to damp the February signal we got some work to do unfortunately.. Which really really really sucks... And exposes the insidious nature to how this is normalizing?  Because where was -4 to -6 departures back when we were getting a steady diet of coastal bombs last month. I'd-a givin' 10% of this nagging cold to that first bomb around March 1 ...recall, the cat-paw tidal scare bomb?   The magnificent .01 too warm to snow event of all times. 

So now we make up for February ... perfect.

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