Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

3k NAM. Totals cut off at 60h but it's still snowing quite moderately then, with what seems to be lots to come.

 

ZbYYeYO.png

 

It's almost over around 60.  Where do you see lots to come?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is going to do the same thing with surface and 850 lows stalling for a time off the mouth of the bay. 3k 850 FGEN panels looks sweet. I know the storm is going to be messy but there is no doubt legit potential for high impact even in the urban corridors. Very interesting atmospheric process we're seeing unfold. 

Where do you get your RGEM from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Where do you get your RGEM from?

It's out to 42 on TT, just the MSLP & Percip, not the radar rain/frozen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where do you get your RGEM from?

Wxbell. @ 48 we're in a band of snow (not terribly heavy) with more to come. Column is great. Low is slowly pulling away. I just like the setup for Wed now. We won't know how the banding/evolution breaks for another 12-24. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

3k NAM. Totals cut off at 60h but it's still snowing quite moderately then, with what seems to be lots to come.

 

ZbYYeYO.png

 

I would take that and run with it, because it gives wxtrix a foot of snow at least. She has only had 1.8 inches all winter. That aint right. It's supposed be I get 1.8 inches all winter, and the mountains get about 70 inches all winter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A friendly reminder with the NAMs and GFS that snow and sleet are tallied together in the model.    So if 0.8" of liquid falls as sleet, the model outputs 0.8" of "snow water equivalent", and if a site like TT applies a 10:1 ratio, you get 8" of snow on the map in a scenario in which you'd have 2-3" of sleet on the ground.    The Ferrier method (available on TT for the NAM3) is much more consistent with the model microphysics.  If sleet is falling, it shows a high rime factor for the falling hydrometeors, and that is translated into a very low (~2:1) SLR.     It's always possible that the NAM3 is overdoing the warm layer, so it could end up snowier than progged, but the Ferrier snow accumulation map *is consistent with what the model is doing*.     The 10:1 is not.

  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

3k on TT.  lol

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

If you subtract whatever it shows before ~12z Wednesday, then it’s probably legit and that is about 3-6” for everyone. Throw in 1-2” of sleet and it’s a solid event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Ultimately I guess it doesn't matter for me since management at my office has gotten VERY stingy with snowdays an I'll probably be in the office anyway...

But heavy sleet or even thundersleet could be very fun. I'm expecting awful commutes both tomorrow and Wednesday. 

This storm has been interesting to track. 

Always fascinating, but this one is particularly interesting because I’m studying the storm evolution and people studying the storm evolution. 

No matter the p-type, it’s going to be another high qpf event. I know no one cares about SNE but I think we’ve seen a number of high qpf events this season in the east. I wonder the last time we’ve had so many in rapid succession and how that relates to our current ENSO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM has 2 closed contours @ h5 in a good spot. SLP is a bit too far out in front off the coast but the back side of the storm would still be cold powder with upper level support. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, high risk said:

A friendly reminder with the NAMs and GFS that snow and sleet are tallied together in the model.    So if 0.8" of liquid falls as sleet, the model outputs 0.8" of "snow water equivalent", and if a site like TT applies a 10:1 ratio, you get 8" of snow on the map in a scenario in which you'd have 2-3" of sleet on the ground.    The Ferrier method (available on TT for the NAM3) is much more consistent with the model microphysics.  If sleet is falling, it shows a high rime factor for the falling hydrometeors, and that is translated into a very low (~2:1) SLR.     It's always possible that the NAM3 is overdoing the warm layer, so it could end up snowier than progged, but the Ferrier snow accumulation map *is consistent with what the model is doing*.     The 10:1 is not.

Yea, there is no way in hell that areas close to the cities are getting 1'+. Snowmaps couldn't me more misleading in this case. People need to look at soundings for their yards and figure out their own solution. I think I get 4" of snow out of this deal right now with a nice sleet base to boot. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that the RGEM has an initial heavy snow thump to start tomorrow morning for basically HoCo and points north before mixing. That’s possible with WAA coming in hot and heavy. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're on a backside band from the surface and 850 lows during this panel. Upper level support from the closed ull in this location could enhance things as it all pulls away. I like the RGEM very much. Not perfect but complaining would be dumb

IWurOqr.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Initial thump tomorrow morning looks like mostly snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley on the RGEM

Yep. And it stays all snow from roughly Winchester and N/W of there. It is a great run for our area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WRF-ARW run at 00z kept N VA/DC in snow instead of sleet for the majority of round 1 fwiw... WRF-ARW2 keeps majority in sleet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's almost over around 60.  Where do you see lots to come?

Radar at 60h:

 

ZKvvEp2.png

 

Probably at least 2 more frames worth of snow after this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, yoda said:

Both WRF-ARWs run at 00z kept N VA/DC in snow instead of sleet for the majority of round 1 fwiw

Yea.  Its too soon to say anything definitively as far a precip type.  But the precip and heavy precip seems like a lock with round 1 at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. And it stays all snow from roughly Winchester and N/W of there. It is a great run for our area.

1.0" QPF through 48 for you and I.  All snow with some more still left to fall.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Way too much worrying about meso scale things at 48-60 hours. Bottom line is a deepening 985 low captured and stalled 50 miles east of OC is going to CCB us good.  Does that mean 3" or 8" or 12" will depend on meso scale stuff we won't know at 48 hours. But that track is money.

Shame this is march 22 and not feb 22 or we would be looking at 2 feet here. Unfortunately we're gonna lose a lot of accumulation.  Probably all the waa even up here I expect at most 1-3" of sleet/snow mix with that. 

But beggars can't be choosers and this is set up good to be a flush hit with the coastal. My one big concern is I wish it was coming in at night though. Timing matters this time of year. 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman 

It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Get your shovel tuned up. You'll mix for shorter than the rest of us. Sleet probably for a while. But 6" of snow is becoming likely. 

They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. 

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. 

Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mappy said:

They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. 

Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? 

Sounds about right. Think the mix up in our region may a quick burst of snow initially over to a somewhat decent sleet event before we flip back over to snow late afternoon, evening. About ready to walk out the door so that is just a quick observation without looking into depth on it from the latest runs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.