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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Latest MAV for KBOS is an 8 muthufukkas!

 

I don't understand the more conservative forecasts after the overnight runs... seems very strong consensus for warning criteria (Euro, 0z and more so 6z NAM, RGEMs, HRPDS, HRRR, ICON, BTV WRF)... only GFS and CMC whose ptype's look questionable

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

I don't understand the more conservative forecasts after the overnight runs... seems very strong consensus for warning criteria (Euro, 0z and more so 6z NAM, RGEMs, HRPDS, HRRR, ICON, BTV WRF)... only GFS and CMC whose ptype's look questionable

Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.

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butterfish55

butterfish55

Posted
Posted
Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.
Me Bob and Brett are definitely riding the line down here. Box and the TV Mets are either going to look very smart or or they will be scrambling to up their totals while it's snowing. All of the forecast are still essentially 0.0 here
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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.

Yeah I think that's actually happening, and got that impression reading the AFD

Looking at guidance I'm scratching my head wondering what I'm missing. Everything has trended colder and we are no longer sitting on the fence, the rates are there...

Warmest the 6z NAM gets:

6z_NAM_KBOS_soundings_at_18z.jpg.7b84129349e719f468181e4b05fe6e45.jpg

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

 I am so distraught that overnight BOX lowered my forecast total from 15" to 14".    :rolleyes:

 In all seriousness, I wonder if this thing is timed just right, that despite this being Greenfield's biggest storm of the season we do not miss a day of school?  Early dismissal today and maybe 2 hour delay tomorrow?   All while getting a foot mid week.   The kids will be furious but parents will rejoice. 

 

 

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I am so distraught that overnight BOX lowered my forecast total from 15" to 14".    :rolleyes:

 In all seriousness, I wonder if this thing is timed just right, that despite this being Greenfield's biggest storm of the season we do not miss a day of school?  Early dismissal today and maybe 2 hour delay tomorrow?   All while getting a foot mid week.   The kids will be furious but parents will rejoice. 

 

 

Yeah, they sent a letter home two days ago saying early dismissal today, then cancelled last night,.

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